Determination of electricity consumers’ load profiles via weighted evidence accumulation clustering using subsampling

With the electricity market liberalization, the distribution and retail companies are looking for better market strategies based on adequate information upon the consumption patterns of its electricity consumers. A fair insight on the consumers’ behavior will permit the definition of specific contract aspects based on the different consumption patterns. In order to form the different consumers’ classes, and find a set of representative consumption patterns we use electricity consumption data from a utility client’s database and two approaches: Two-step clustering algorithm and the WEACS approach based on evidence accumulation (EAC) for combining partitions in a clustering ensemble. While EAC uses a voting mechanism to produce a co-association matrix based on the pairwise associations obtained from N partitions and where each partition has equal weight in the combination process, the WEACS approach uses subsampling and weights differently the partitions. As a complementary step to the WEACS approach, we combine the partitions obtained in the WEACS approach with the ALL clustering ensemble construction method and we use the Ward Link algorithm to obtain the final data partition. The characterization of the obtained consumers’ clusters was performed using the C5.0 classification algorithm. Experiment results showed that the WEACS approach leads to better results than many other clustering approaches.

A new approach for multi-agent coalition formation and management in the scope of electricity markets

This paper presents a new methodology for the creation and management of coalitions in Electricity Markets. This approach is tested using the multi-agent market simulator MASCEM, taking advantage of its ability to provide the means to model and simulate VPP (Virtual Power Producers). VPPs are represented as coalitions of agents, with the capability of negotiating both in the market, and internally, with their members, in order to combine and manage their individual specific characteristics and goals, with the strategy and objectives of the VPP itself. The new features include the development of particular individual facilitators to manage the communications amongst the members of each coalition independently from the rest of the simulation, and also the mechanisms for the classification of the agents that are candidates to join the coalition. In addition, a global study on the results of the Iberian Electricity Market is performed, to compare and analyze different approaches for defining consistent and adequate strategies to integrate into the agents of MASCEM. This, combined with the application of learning and prediction techniques provide the agents with the ability to learn and adapt themselves, by adjusting their actions to the continued evolving states of the world they are playing in.

Scenarios Generation for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets based on Intelligent Data Analysis

This document presents a tool able to automatically gather data provided by real energy markets and to generate scenarios, capture and improve market players’ profiles and strategies by using knowledge discovery processes in databases supported by artificial intelligence techniques, data mining algorithms and machine learning methods. It provides the means for generating scenarios with different dimensions and characteristics, ensuring the representation of real and adapted markets, and their participating entities. The scenarios generator module enhances the MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) simulator, endowing a more effective tool for decision support. The achievements from the implementation of the proposed module enables researchers and electricity markets’ participating entities to analyze data, create real scenarios and make experiments with them. On the other hand, applying knowledge discovery techniques to real data also allows the improvement of MASCEM agents’ profiles and strategies resulting in a better representation of real market players’ behavior. This work aims to improve the comprehension of electricity markets and the interactions among the involved entities through adequate multi-agent simulation.

Data Mining Approach to support the Generation of Realistic Scenarios for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets

This paper presents the Realistic Scenarios Generator (RealScen), a tool that processes data from real electricity markets to generate realistic scenarios that enable the modeling of electricity market players’ characteristics and strategic behavior. The proposed tool provides significant advantages to the decision making process in an electricity market environment, especially when coupled with a multi-agent electricity markets simulator. The generation of realistic scenarios is performed using mechanisms for intelligent data analysis, which are based on artificial intelligence and data mining algorithms. These techniques allow the study of realistic scenarios, adapted to the existing markets, and improve the representation of market entities as software agents, enabling a detailed modeling of their profiles and strategies. This work contributes significantly to the understanding of the interactions between the entities acting in electricity markets by increasing the capability and realism of market simulations.

Analysis of Electricity Market Prices Using Multidimensional Scaling

This paper studies the impact of the energy upon electricity markets using Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). Data from major energy and electricity markets is considered. Several maps produced by MDS are presented and discussed revealing that this method is useful for understanding the correlation between them. Furthermore, the results help electricity markets agents hedging against Market Clearing Price (MCP) volatility.

Estudo da Viabilidade Técnico-Económica de umm Sistema de Cogeração para um Complexo de Piscinas Interiores

A presente dissertação centrou-se no estudo técnico-económico de dois cenários futuros para a continuação de fornecimento de energia térmica a um complexo de piscinas existente na região do vale do Tâmega. Neste momento a central de cogeração existente excedeu a sua licença de utilização e necessita de ser substituída. Os dois cenários em estudo são a compra de uma nova caldeira, a gás natural, para suprir as necessidades térmicas da caldeira existente a fuelóleo, ou o uso de um sistema de cogeração compacto que poderá estar disponível numa empresa do grupo. No primeiro cenário o investimento envolvido é cerca de 456 640 € sem proveitos de outra ordem para além dos requisitos térmicos, mas no segundo cenário os resultados são bem diferentes, mesmo que tenha de ser realizado o investimento de 1 000 000 € na instalação. Para este cenário foi efetuado um levantamento da legislação nacional no que toca à cogeração, recolheram-se dados do edifício como: horas de funcionamento, número de utentes, consumos de energia elétrica, térmica, água, temperatura da água das piscinas, temperatura do ar da nave, assim como as principais características da instalação de cogeração compacta. Com esta informação realizou-se o balanço de massa e energia e criou-se um modelo da nova instalação em software de modelação processual (Aspen Plus® da AspenTech). Os rendimentos térmico e elétrico obtidos da nova central de cogeração compacta foram, respetivamente, de 38,1% e 39,8%, com uma percentagem de perdas de 12,5% o que determinou um rendimento global de 78%. A avaliação da poupança de energia primária para esta instalação de cogeração compacta foi de 19,6 % o que permitiu concluir que é de elevada eficiência. O modelo criado permitiu compreender as necessidades energéticas, determinar alguns custos associados ao processo e simular o funcionamento da unidade com diferentes temperaturas de ar ambiente (cenários de verão e inverno com temperaturas médias de 20ºC e 5ºC). Os resultados revelaram uma diminuição de 1,14 €/h no custo da electricidade e um aumento do consumo de gás natural de 62,47 €/h durante o período mais frio no inverno devido ao aumento das perdas provocadas pela diminuição da temperatura exterior. Com esta nova unidade de cogeração compacta a poupança total anual pode ser, em média, de 267 780 € admitindo um valor para a manutenção de 97 698 €/ano. Se assim for, o projeto apresenta um retorno do investimento ao fim de 5 anos, com um VAL de 1 030 430 € e uma taxa interna de rentabilidade (TIR) de 14% (positiva, se se considerar a taxa de atualização do investimento de 3% para 15 anos de vida). Apesar do custo inicial ser elevado, os parâmetros económicos mostram que o projeto tem viabilidade económica e dará lucro durante cerca de 9 anos.

Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices – a cointegrated VECM analysis

This paper addresses the impact of the CO2 opportunity cost on the wholesale electricity price in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), namely on the Portuguese system, for the period corresponding to the Phase II of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the econometric analysis a vector error correction model (VECM) is specified to estimate both long–run equilibrium relations and short–run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The model is estimated using daily spot market prices and the four commodities prices are jointly modelled as endogenous variables. Moreover, a set of exogenous variables is incorporated in order to account for the electricity demand conditions (temperature) and the electricity generation mix (quantity of electricity traded according the technology used). The outcomes for the Portuguese electricity system suggest that the dynamic pass–through of carbon prices into electricity prices is strongly significant and a long–run elasticity was estimated (equilibrium relation) that is aligned with studies that have been conducted for other markets.

Cost Allocation Model for Distribution Networks Considering High Penetration of Distributed Energy Resources

The high penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution networks and the competitiveenvironment of electricity markets impose the use of new approaches in several domains. The networkcost allocation, traditionally used in transmission networks, should be adapted and used in the distribu-tion networks considering the specifications of the connected resources. The main goal is to develop afairer methodology trying to distribute the distribution network use costs to all players which are usingthe network in each period. In this paper, a model considering different type of costs (fixed, losses, andcongestion costs) is proposed comprising the use of a large set of DER, namely distributed generation(DG), demand response (DR) of direct load control type, energy storage systems (ESS), and electric vehi-cles with capability of discharging energy to the network, which is known as vehicle-to-grid (V2G). Theproposed model includes three distinct phases of operation. The first phase of the model consists in aneconomic dispatch based on an AC optimal power flow (AC-OPF); in the second phase Kirschen’s andBialek’s tracing algorithms are used and compared to evaluate the impact of each resource in the net-work. Finally, the MW-mile method is used in the third phase of the proposed model. A distributionnetwork of 33 buses with large penetration of DER is used to illustrate the application of the proposedmodel.

Multi-agent Simulation of Bilateral Contracting in Competitive Electricity Markets

Traditional vertically integrated power utilities around the world have evolved from monopoly structures to open markets that promote competition among suppliers and provide consumers with a choice of services. Market forces drive the price of electricity and reduce the net cost through increased competition. Electricity can be traded in both organized markets or using forward bilateral contracts. This article focuses on bilateral contracts and describes some important features of an agent-based system for bilateral trading in competitive markets. Special attention is devoted to the negotiation process, demand response in bilateral contracting, and risk management. The article also presents a case study on forward bilateral contracting: a retailer agent and a customer agent negotiate a 24h-rate tariff.

Multi-agent simulation of continental, regional, and micro electricity markets

Renewable based power generation has significantly increased over the last years. However, this process has evolved separately from electricity markets, leading to an inadequacy of the present market models to cope with huge quantities of renewable energy resources, and to take full advantage of the presently existing and the increasing envisaged renewable based and distributed energy resources. This paper proposes the modelling of electricity markets at several levels (continental, regional and micro), taking into account the specific characteristics of the players and resources involved in each level and ensuring that the proposed models accommodate adequate business models able to support the contribution of all the resources in the system, from the largest to the smaller ones. The proposed market models are integrated in MASCEM (Multi- Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), using the multi agent approach advantages for overcoming the current inadequacy and significant limitations of the presently existing electricity market simulators to deal with the complex electricity market models that must be adopted.

Adaptive tool for automatic data collection of real electricity markets

The study of electricity markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance in last years, as result of the new challenges that the electricity markets restructuring produced. This restructuring increased the competitiveness of the market, but with it its complexity. The growing complexity and unpredictability of the market’s evolution consequently increases the decision making difficulty. Therefore, the intervenient entities are forced to rethink their behaviour and market strategies. Currently, lots of information concerning electricity markets is available. These data, concerning innumerous regards of electricity markets operation, is accessible free of charge, and it is essential for understanding and suitably modelling electricity markets. This paper proposes a tool which is able to handle, store and dynamically update data. The development of the proposed tool is expected to be of great importance to improve the comprehension of electricity markets and the interactions among the involved entities.

Definition of Distribution Network Tariffs Considering Distribution Generation and Demand Response

The use of distribution networks in the current scenario of high penetration of Distributed Generation (DG) is a problem of great importance. In the competitive environment of electricity markets and smart grids, Demand Response (DR) is also gaining notable impact with several benefits for the whole system. The work presented in this paper comprises a methodology able to define the cost allocation in distribution networks considering large integration of DG and DR resources. The proposed methodology is divided into three phases and it is based on an AC Optimal Power Flow (OPF) including the determination of topological distribution factors, and consequent application of the MW-mile method. The application of the proposed tariffs definition methodology is illustrated in a distribution network with 33 buses, 66 DG units, and 32 consumers with DR capacity.