Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar, ainda permanecem questões científicas empíricas sobre a identificação do modelo geral teórico de mercado mais adequado para modelar a difusão das séries. Em quarto lugar, aos reguladores e gestores de risco importa saber se existem mercados persistentes e, por isso, ineficientes, que, portanto, possam produzir retornos anormais. O objetivo do trabalho de investigação da dissertação é duplo. Por um lado, pretende proporcionar conhecimento adicional para o debate da memória de longo prazo, debruçando-se sobre o comportamento das séries diárias de retornos dos principais índices acionistas da EURONEXT. Por outro lado, pretende contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model CAPM, considerando uma medida de risco alternativa capaz de ultrapassar os constrangimentos da hipótese de mercado eficiente EMH na presença de séries financeiras com processos sem incrementos independentes e identicamente distribuídos (i.i.d.). O estudo empírico indica a possibilidade de utilização alternativa das obrigações do tesouro (OT’s) com maturidade de longo prazo no cálculo dos retornos do mercado, dado que o seu comportamento nos mercados de dívida soberana reflete a confiança dos investidores nas condições financeiras dos Estados e mede a forma como avaliam as respetiva economias com base no desempenho da generalidade dos seus ativos. Embora o modelo de difusão de preços definido pelo movimento Browniano geométrico gBm alegue proporcionar um bom ajustamento das séries temporais financeiras, os seus pressupostos de normalidade, estacionariedade e independência das inovações residuais são adulterados pelos dados empíricos analisados. Por isso, na procura de evidências sobre a propriedade de memória longa nos mercados recorre-se à rescaled-range analysis R/S e à detrended fluctuation analysis DFA, sob abordagem do movimento Browniano fracionário fBm, para estimar o expoente Hurst H em relação às séries de dados completas e para calcular o expoente Hurst “local” H t em janelas móveis. Complementarmente, são realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses através do rescaled-range tests R/S , do modified rescaled-range test M - R/S e do fractional differencing test GPH. Em termos de uma conclusão única a partir de todos os métodos sobre a natureza da dependência para o mercado acionista em geral, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos. Isso quer dizer que o grau de memória de longo prazo e, assim, qualquer classificação, depende de cada mercado particular. No entanto, os resultados gerais maioritariamente positivos suportam a presença de memória longa, sob a forma de persistência, nos retornos acionistas da Bélgica, Holanda e Portugal. Isto sugere que estes mercados estão mais sujeitos a maior previsibilidade (“efeito José”), mas também a tendências que podem ser inesperadamente interrompidas por descontinuidades (“efeito Noé”), e, por isso, tendem a ser mais arriscados para negociar. Apesar da evidência de dinâmica fractal ter suporte estatístico fraco, em sintonia com a maior parte dos estudos internacionais, refuta a hipótese de passeio aleatório com incrementos i.i.d., que é a base da EMH na sua forma fraca. Atendendo a isso, propõem-se contributos para aperfeiçoamento do CAPM, através da proposta de uma nova fractal capital market line FCML e de uma nova fractal security market line FSML. A nova proposta sugere que o elemento de risco (para o mercado e para um ativo) seja dado pelo expoente H de Hurst para desfasamentos de longo prazo dos retornos acionistas. O expoente H mede o grau de memória de longo prazo nos índices acionistas, quer quando as séries de retornos seguem um processo i.i.d. não correlacionado, descrito pelo gBm(em que H = 0,5 , confirmando- se a EMH e adequando-se o CAPM), quer quando seguem um processo com dependência estatística, descrito pelo fBm(em que H é diferente de 0,5, rejeitando-se a EMH e desadequando-se o CAPM). A vantagem da FCML e da FSML é que a medida de memória de longo prazo, definida por H, é a referência adequada para traduzir o risco em modelos que possam ser aplicados a séries de dados que sigam processos i.i.d. e processos com dependência não linear. Então, estas formulações contemplam a EMH como um caso particular possível.

ß-Lactams: chemical structure, mode of action and mechanisms of resistance

This synopsis summarizes the key chemical and bacteriological characteristics of β-lactams, penicillins, cephalosporins, carbanpenems, monobactams and others. Particular notice is given to first-generation to fifth-generation cephalosporins. This review also summarizes the main resistance mechanism to antibiotics, focusing particular attention to those conferring resistance to broad-spectrum cephalosporins by means of production of emerging cephalosporinases (extended-spectrum β-lactamases and AmpC β-lactamases), target alteration (penicillin-binding proteins from methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus) and membrane transporters that pump β-lactams out of the bacterial cell.

After Bologna: does the shift in structure bring forth a shift in a attitude?

With this case-study, we (i) intend to show how a semester project on creating a Multimedia CV could, to some extent, help Portuguese final-year students develop some generic competences, change their attitude towards the challenge of "How to Apply fro a Job" and increase their self-marketing strategies, creativity and entrepreneurship cannot answer the question of the paper, but intend onlu to raise it fot further and better studies now that Bologna design is implementes in almost all HEIs Europe.

Cu2ZnSnS4 absorber layers obtained through sulphurization of metallic precursors: Graphite box versus sulphur flux

In this work we employed a hybrid method, combining RF-magnetron sputtering with evaporation, for the deposition of tailor made metallic precursors, with varying number of Zn/Sn/Cu (ZTC) periods and compared two approaches to sulphurization. Two series of samples with 1×, 2× and 4× ZTC periods have been prepared. One series of precursors was sulphurized in a tubular furnace directly exposed to a sulphur vapour and N2+5% H2 flux at a pressure of 5.0×10+4 Pa. A second series of identical precursors was sulphurized in the same furnace but inside a graphite box where sulphur pellets have been evaporated again in the presence of N2+5% H2 and at the same pressure as for the sulphur flux experiments. The morphological and chemical analyses revealed a small grain structure but good average composition for all three films sulphurized in the graphite box. As for the three films sulphurized in sulphur flux grain growth was seen with the increase of the number of ZTC periods whilst, in terms of composition, they were slightly Zn poor. The films' crystal structure showed that Cu2ZnSnS4 is the dominant phase. However, in the case of the sulphur flux films SnS2 was also detected. Photoluminescence spectroscopy studies showed an asymmetric broad band emission whichoccurs in the range of 1–1.5 eV. Clearly the radiative recombination efficiency is higher in the series of samples sulphurized in sulphur flux. We have found that sulphurization in sulphur flux leads to better film morphology than when the process is carried out in a graphite box in similar thermodynamic conditions. Solar cells have been prepared and characterized showing a correlation between improved film morphology and cell performance. The best cells achieved an efficiency of 2.4%.

PAH air pollution at a Portuguese urban area: carcinogenic risks and sources identification

This study aimed to characterize air pollution and the associated carcinogenic risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs) at an urban site, to identify possible emission sources of PAHs using several statistical methodologies, and to analyze the influence of other air pollutants and meteorological variables on PAH concentrations.The air quality and meteorological data were collected in Oporto, the second largest city of Portugal. Eighteen PAHs (the 16 PAHs considered by United States Environment Protection Agency (USEPA) as priority pollutants, dibenzo[a,l]pyrene, and benzo[j]fluoranthene) were collected daily for 24 h in air (gas phase and in particles) during 40 consecutive days in November and December 2008 by constant low-flow samplers and using polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) membrane filters for particulate (PM10 and PM2.5 bound) PAHs and pre-cleaned polyurethane foam plugs for gaseous compounds. The other monitored air pollutants were SO2, PM10, NO2, CO, and O3; the meteorological variables were temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, total precipitation, and solar radiation. Benzo[a]pyrene reached a mean concentration of 2.02 ngm−3, surpassing the EU annual limit value. The target carcinogenic risks were equal than the health-based guideline level set by USEPA (10−6) at the studied site, with the cancer risks of eight PAHs reaching senior levels of 9.98×10−7 in PM10 and 1.06×10−6 in air. The applied statistical methods, correlation matrix, cluster analysis, and principal component analysis, were in agreement in the grouping of the PAHs. The groups were formed according to their chemical structure (number of rings), phase distribution, and emission sources. PAH diagnostic ratios were also calculated to evaluate the main emission sources. Diesel vehicular emissions were the major source of PAHs at the studied site. Besides that source, emissions from residential heating and oil refinery were identified to contribute to PAH levels at the respective area. Additionally, principal component regression indicated that SO2, NO2, PM10, CO, and solar radiation had positive correlation with PAHs concentrations, while O3, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were negatively correlated.

Antioxidant properties of hydroxycinnamic acids: a review of structure- activity relationships

Hydroxycinnamic acids (HCAs) are important phytochemicals possessing significant biological properties. Several investigators have studied in vitro antioxidant activity of HCAs in detail. In this review, we have gathered the studies focused on the structure-activity relationships (SARs) of these compounds that have used medicinal chemistry to generate more potent antioxidant molecules. Most of the reports indicated that the presence of an unsaturated bond on the side chain of HCAs is vital to their activity. The structural features that were reported to be of importance to the antioxidant activity were categorized as follows: modifications of the aromatic ring, which include alterations in the number and position of hydroxy groups and insertion of electron donating or withdrawing moieties as well as modifications of the carboxylic function that include esterification and amidation process. Furthermore, reports that have addressed the influence of physicochemical properties including redox potential, lipid solubility and dissociation constant on the antioxidant activity were also summarized. Finally, the pro-oxidant effect of HCAs in some test systems was addressed. Most of the investigations concluded that the presence of ortho-dihydroxy phenyl group (catechol moiety) is of significant importance to the antioxidant activity, while, the presence of three hydroxy groups does not necessarily improve the activity. Optimization of the structure of molecular leads is an important task of modern medicinal chemistry and its accomplishment relies on the careful assessment of SARs. SAR studies on HCAs can identify the most successful antioxidants that could be useful for management of oxidative stress-related diseases.

β-Lactams: chemical structure, mode of action and mechanisms of resistance

This synopsis summarizes the key chemical and bacteriological characteristics of β-lactams, penicillins, cephalosporins, carbanpenems, monobactams and others. Particular notice is given to first-generation to fifth-generation cephalosporins. This reviewalso summarizes the main resistancemechanism to antibiotics, focusing particular attention to those conferring resistance to broad-spectrum cephalosporins by means of production of emerging cephalosporinases (extended-spectrum β-lactamases and AmpC β-lactamases), target alteration (penicillin-binding proteins from methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus) and membrane transporters that pump β-lactams out of the bacterial cell.

Analysis of the respiratory dynamics during normal breathing by means of pseudo phase plots and pressure-volume loops

This paper reports on the analysis of tidal breathing patterns measured during noninvasive forced oscillation lung function tests in six individual groups. The three adult groups were healthy, with prediagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and with prediagnosed kyphoscoliosis, respectively. The three children groups were healthy, with prediagnosed asthma, and with prediagnosed cystic fibrosis, respectively. The analysis is applied to the pressure–volume curves and the pseudophaseplane loop by means of the box-counting method, which gives a measure of the area within each loop. The objective was to verify if there exists a link between the area of the loops, power-law patterns, and alterations in the respiratory structure with disease. We obtained statistically significant variations between the data sets corresponding to the six groups of patients, showing also the existence of power-law patterns. Our findings support the idea that the respiratory system changes with disease in terms of airway geometry and tissue parameters, leading, in turn, to variations in the fractal dimension of the respiratory tree and its dynamics.

The effect of fractional order in variable structure control

This paper studies fractional variable structure controllers. Two cases are considered namely, the sliding reference model and the control action, that are generalized from integer into fractional orders. The test bed consists in a mechanical manipulator and the effect of the fractional approach upon the system performance is evaluated. The results show that fractional dynamics, both in the switching surface and the control law are important design algorithms in variable structure controllers.

Drilling of fibre reinforced plastic laminates

The use of fibre reinforced plastics – FRP’s – in structures is under a considerable increase. Advantages of their use are related with their low weight, high strength and stiffness. The improvement of the dynamic characteristics has been profitable for aeronautics, automobile, railway, naval and sporting goods industries. Drilling is a widely used machining technique as it is needed to assemble parts in a structure. This is a unique machining process, characterized by the existence of two different mechanisms: extrusion by the drill chisel edge and cutting by the rotating cutting lips. Drilling raises particular problems that can reduce mechanical and fatigue strength of the parts. In this work, quasi-isotropic hybrid laminates with 25% of carbon fibre reinforced plies and 4 mm thickness are produced, tested and drilled. Three different drill geometries are compared. Results considered are the interlaminar fracture toughness in Mode I – GIc –, thrust force during drilling and delamination extent after drilling. A bearing test is performed to evaluate tool influence on the load carrying capacity of the plate. Results consider the influence of drill geometry on delamination. A correlation linking plate damage to bearing test results is presented.

Friction and wear in thrust ball bearings lubricated with biodegradable greases

Thrust ball bearings lubricated with several different types of grease, including three biodegradable low-toxicity greases, were tested in a modified four-ball machine in order to evaluate the bearing friction torque. At the end of each test, grease samples were obtained and analysed through ferrography, allowing the quantification and evaluation of the bearing wear. In order to compare the grease performance in terms of friction and wear, a correlation between the grease characteristics (base oil, bleed oil, thickener structure, and rheological parameters) and the experimental results was established.

Evolution of Drug Resistance: Insight on TEM -Lactamases Structure and Activity and Beta-Lactam Antibiotics

Extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs) prevalence was studied in the north of Portugal, among 193 clinical isolates belonging to citizens in a district in the boundaries between this country and Spain from a total of 7529 clinical strains. In the present study we recovered some members of Enterobacteriaceae family, producing ESBL enzymes, including Escherichia coli (67.9%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (30.6%), Klebsiella oxytoca (0.5%), Enterobacter aerogenes (0.5%), and Citrobacter freundii (0.5%). β-lactamases genes blaTEM, blaSHV, and blaCTX-M were screened by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequencing approaches. TEM enzymes were among the most prevalent types (40.9%) followed by CTX-M (37.3%) and SHV (23.3%). Among our sample of 193 ESBL-producing strains 99.0% were resistant to the fourth-generation cephalosporin cefepime. Of the 193 isolates 81.3% presented transferable plasmids harboring genes. Clonal studies were performed by PCR for the enterobacterial repetitive intragenic consensus (ERIC) sequences. This study reports a high diversity of genetic patterns. Ten clusters were found for E. coli isolates and five clusters for K. pneumoniae strains by means of ERIC analysis. In conclusion, in this country, the most prevalent type is still the TEM-type, but CTX-M is growing rapidly.

Analysis of the Respiratory Dynamics During Normal Breathing by Means of Pseudophase Plots and Pressure–Volume Loops

This paper reports on the analysis of tidal breathing patterns measured during noninvasive forced oscillation lung function tests in six individual groups. The three adult groups were healthy, with prediagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and with prediagnosed kyphoscoliosis, respectively. The three children groups were healthy, with prediagnosed asthma, and with prediagnosed cystic fibrosis, respectively. The analysis is applied to the pressure-volume curves and the pseudophase-plane loop by means of the box-counting method, which gives a measure of the area within each loop. The objective was to verify if there exists a link between the area of the loops, power-law patterns, and alterations in the respiratory structure with disease. We obtained statistically significant variations between the data sets corresponding to the six groups of patients, showing also the existence of power-law patterns. Our findings support the idea that the respiratory system changes with disease in terms of airway geometry and tissue parameters, leading, in turn, to variations in the fractal dimension of the respiratory tree and its dynamics.

Characterisation of noisy speech channels in 2G and 3G mobile networks

As the wireless cellular market reaches competitive levels never seen before, network operators need to focus on maintaining Quality of Service (QoS) a main priority if they wish to attract new subscribers while keeping existing customers satisfied. Speech Quality as perceived by the end user is one major example of a characteristic in constant need of maintenance and improvement. It is in this topic that this Master Thesis project fits in. Making use of an intrusive method of speech quality evaluation, as a means to further study and characterize the performance of speech codecs in second-generation (2G) and third-generation (3G) technologies. Trying to find further correlation between codecs with similar bit rates, along with the exploration of certain transmission parameters which may aid in the assessment of speech quality. Due to some limitations concerning the audio analyzer equipment that was to be employed, a different system for recording the test samples was sought out. Although the new designed system is not standard, after extensive testing and optimization of the system's parameters, final results were found reliable and satisfactory. Tests include a set of high and low bit rate codecs for both 2G and 3G, where values were compared and analysed, leading to the outcome that 3G speech codecs perform better, under the approximately same conditions, when compared with 2G. Reinforcing the idea that 3G is, with no doubt, the best choice if the costumer looks for the best possible listening speech quality. Regarding the transmission parameters chosen for the experiment, the Receiver Quality (RxQual) and Received Energy per Chip to the Power Density Ratio (Ec/N0), these were subject to speech quality correlation tests. Final results of RxQual were compared to those of prior studies from different researchers and, are considered to be of important relevance. Leading to the confirmation of RxQual as a reliable indicator of speech quality. As for Ec/N0, it is not possible to state it as a speech quality indicator however, it shows clear thresholds for which the MOS values decrease significantly. The studied transmission parameters show that they can be used not only for network management purposes but, at the same time, give an expected idea to the communications engineer (or technician) of the end-to-end speech quality consequences. With the conclusion of the work new ideas for future studies come to mind. Considering that the fourth-generation (4G) cellular technologies are now beginning to take an important place in the global market, as the first all-IP network structure, it seems of great relevance that 4G speech quality should be subject of evaluation. Comparing it to 3G, not only in narrowband but also adding wideband scenarios with the most recent standard objective method of speech quality assessment, POLQA. Also, new data found on Ec/N0 tests, justifies further research studies with the intention of validating the assumptions made in this work.

Demand Response Programs Definition Using Demand Price Elasticity to Define Consumers Aggregation for an Improved Remuneration Structure

The positioning of the consumers in the power systems operation has been changed in the recent years, namely due to the implementation of competitive electricity markets. Demand response is an opportunity for the consumers’ participation in electricity markets. Smart grids can give an important support for the integration of demand response. The methodology proposed in the present paper aims to create an improved demand response program definition and remuneration scheme for aggregated resources. The consumers are aggregated in a certain number of clusters, each one corresponding to a distinct demand response program, according to the economic impact of the resulting remuneration tariff. The knowledge about the consumers is obtained from its demand price elasticity values. The illustrative case study included in the paper is based on a 218 consumers’ scenario.