An integrated system to support electricity tariff contract definition

This paper presents an integrated system that helps both retail companies and electricity consumers on the definition of the best retail contracts and tariffs. This integrated system is composed by a Decision Support System (DSS) based on a Consumer Characterization Framework (CCF). The CCF is based on data mining techniques, applied to obtain useful knowledge about electricity consumers from large amounts of consumption data. This knowledge is acquired following an innovative and systematic approach able to identify different consumers’ classes, represented by a load profile, and its characterization using decision trees. The framework generates inputs to use in the knowledge base and in the database of the DSS. The rule sets derived from the decision trees are integrated in the knowledge base of the DSS. The load profiles together with the information about contracts and electricity prices form the database of the DSS. This DSS is able to perform the classification of different consumers, present its load profile and test different electricity tariffs and contracts. The final outputs of the DSS are a comparative economic analysis between different contracts and advice about the most economic contract to each consumer class. The presentation of the DSS is completed with an application example using a real data base of consumers from the Portuguese distribution company.

Monetary and fiscal policies interactions in a monetary union with country-size asymmetry

Within a country-size asymmetric monetary union, idiosyncratic shocks and national fiscal stabilization policies cause asymmetric cross-border effects. These effects are a source of strategic interactions between noncoordinated fiscal and monetary policies: on the one hand, due to larger externalities imposed on the union, large countries face less incentives to develop free-riding fiscal policies; on the other hand, a larger strategic position vis-à-vis the central bank incentives the use of fiscal policy to, deliberately, influence monetary policy. Additionally, the existence of non-distortionary government financing may also shape policy interactions. As a result, optimal policy regimes may diverge not only across the union members, but also between the latter and the monetary union. In a two-country micro-founded New-Keynesian model for a monetary union, we consider two fiscal policy scenarios: (i) lump-sum taxes are raised to fully finance the government budget and (ii) lump-sum taxes do not ensure balanced budgets in each period; therefore, fiscal and monetary policies are expected to impinge on debt sustainability. For several degrees of country-size asymmetry, we compute optimal discretionary and dynamic non-cooperative policy games and compare their stabilization performance using a union-wide welfare measure. We also assess whether these outcomes could be improved, for the monetary union, through institutional policy arrangements. We find that, in the presence of government indebtedness, monetary policy optimally deviates from macroeconomic to debt stabilization. We also find that policy cooperation is always welfare increasing for the monetary union as a whole; however, indebted large countries may strongly oppose to this arrangement in favour of fiscal leadership. In this case, delegation of monetary policy to a conservative central bank proves to be fruitful to improve the union’s welfare.

O recurso ao outsourcing na prestação de cuidados de saúde

Nos últimos anos verificou-se uma alteração das condições e modo de funcionamento de empresas e instituições, privadas e públicas, muitas delas através da introdução de novas ferramentas de gestão. De entre elas, podemos destacar o outsourcing, que apesar de não ser um fenómeno actual, é ainda em Portugal uma ferramenta recente e pouco explorada, que pode contribuir de forma decisiva para a modernização, flexibilidade e competitividade das empresas. O presente estudo pretende abordar a contratação de serviços externos nos serviços de saúde públicos, também conhecido como outsourcing, mediante uma análise prática da realidade de uma instituição hospitalar com sete serviços em regime de outsourcing, com recolha dos dados durante o triénio 2008-2010. No Serviço de Urgência durante 2010 o principal prestador recebeu mais 104,28% acima do valor referência/hora, no Serviço de Oftalmologia no ano de 2010 o prestador recebeu um valor superior em 24,91%, no Serviço de Limpeza, Higiene e Conforto é pago ao prestador durante o ano de 2010 um valor superior em 13,85%, no Serviço de Vigilância e Segurança o prestador recebeu durante o ano de 2010 um valor superior em 27,5%, caso a instituição hospitalar optasse por contratar, para os serviços atrás referidos, profissionais para o quadro de pessoal. Ainda em relação ao Serviço de Urgência foi pago mais 21,38% acima do valor de referência publicado por Despacho governamental. Em relação aos Serviços de Lavandaria e de Tratamento de Resíduos Sólidos, não foi possível recolher os dados necessários que pudessem levar a uma conclusão válida sobre os custos pagos pela instituição hospitalar. Pode-se concluir que a contratação de prestadores externos, para os serviços de saúde, essenciais e não essenciais, em regime de outsourcing, revela-se na maioria dos casos analisados a opção menos económica, com custos bastantes elevados.

Economia social, pilar de um novo modelo de desenvolvimento económico sustentável

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientada por Dr.ª Alcina Portugal Dias

A novel framework for modeling value for the customer, an essay on negotiation

This paper proposes a novel framework for modelling the Value for the Customer, the so-called the Conceptual Model for Decomposing Value for the Customer (CMDVC). This conceptual model is first validated through an exploratory case study where the authors validate both the proposed constructs of the model and their relations. In a second step the authors propose a mathematical formulation for the CMDVC as well as a computational method. This has enabled the final quantitative discussion of how the CMDVC can be applied and used in the enterprise environment, and the final validation by the people in the enterprise. Along this research, we were able to confirm that the results of this novel quantitative approach to model the Value for the Customer is consistent with the company's empirical experience. The paper further discusses the merits and limitations of this approach, proposing that the model is likely to bring value to support not only the contract preparation at an Ex-Ante Negotiation Phase, as demonstrated, but also along the actual negotiation process, as finally confirmed by an enterprise testimonial.

Determination of electricity consumers’ load profiles via weighted evidence accumulation clustering using subsampling

With the electricity market liberalization, the distribution and retail companies are looking for better market strategies based on adequate information upon the consumption patterns of its electricity consumers. A fair insight on the consumers’ behavior will permit the definition of specific contract aspects based on the different consumption patterns. In order to form the different consumers’ classes, and find a set of representative consumption patterns we use electricity consumption data from a utility client’s database and two approaches: Two-step clustering algorithm and the WEACS approach based on evidence accumulation (EAC) for combining partitions in a clustering ensemble. While EAC uses a voting mechanism to produce a co-association matrix based on the pairwise associations obtained from N partitions and where each partition has equal weight in the combination process, the WEACS approach uses subsampling and weights differently the partitions. As a complementary step to the WEACS approach, we combine the partitions obtained in the WEACS approach with the ALL clustering ensemble construction method and we use the Ward Link algorithm to obtain the final data partition. The characterization of the obtained consumers’ clusters was performed using the C5.0 classification algorithm. Experiment results showed that the WEACS approach leads to better results than many other clustering approaches.

Maximum penetration of microgeneration photovoltaic panels in distribution network

In smart grids context, the distributed generation units based in renewable resources, play an important rule. The photovoltaic solar units are a technology in evolution and their prices decrease significantly in recent years due to the high penetration of this technology in the low voltage and medium voltage networks supported by governmental policies and incentives. This paper proposes a methodology to determine the maximum penetration of photovoltaic units in a distribution network. The paper presents a case study, with four different scenarios, that considers a 32-bus medium voltage distribution network and the inclusion storage units.

A decision-support system based on particle swarm optimization for multiperiod hedging in electricity markets

This paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to support electricity producers for multiperiod optimal contract allocation. The producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the tradeoff between the expectation and variance of the return. Variance estimation and expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a price range forecasting model developed by the authors. A certain confidence level is associated to each forecasted scenario interval. The proposed model makes use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. PSO performance was evaluated by comparing it with a genetic algorithm-based approach. This model can be used by producers in deregulated electricity markets but can easily be adapted to load serving entities and retailers. Moreover, it can easily be adapted to the use of other type of contracts.

Knowledge extraction from medium voltage load diagrams to support the definition of electrical tariffs

With the electricity market liberalization, distribution and retail companies are looking for better market strategies based on adequate information upon the consumption patterns of its electricity customers. In this environment all consumers are free to choose their electricity supplier. A fair insight on the customer´s behaviour will permit the definition of specific contract aspects based on the different consumption patterns. In this paper Data Mining (DM) techniques are applied to electricity consumption data from a utility client’s database. To form the different customer´s classes, and find a set of representative consumption patterns, we have used the Two-Step algorithm which is a hierarchical clustering algorithm. Each consumer class will be represented by its load profile resulting from the clustering operation. Next, to characterize each consumer class a classification model will be constructed with the C5.0 classification algorithm.

Virtual power producers simulation - negotiating renewable distributed generation in competitive electricity markets

Sustainable development concerns made renewable energy sources to be increasingly used for electricity distributed generation. However, this is mainly due to incentives or mandatory targets determined by energy policies as in European Union. Assuring a sustainable future requires distributed generation to be able to participate in competitive electricity markets. To get more negotiation power in the market and to get advantages of scale economy, distributed generators can be aggregated giving place to a new concept: the Virtual Power Producer (VPP). VPPs are multi-technology and multisite heterogeneous entities that should adopt organization and management methodologies so that they can make distributed generation a really profitable activity, able to participate in the market. This paper presents ViProd, a simulation tool that allows simulating VPPs operation, in the context of MASCEM, a multi-agent based eletricity market simulator.

Scheduling in holonic manufacturing systems

This chapter presents some of the issues with holonic manufacturing systems. It starts by presenting the current manufacturing scenario and trends and then provides some background information on the holonic concept and its application to manufacturing. The current limitations and future trends of manufacturing suggest more autonomous and distributed organisations for manufacturing systems; holonic manufacturing systems are proposed as a way to achieve such autonomy and decentralisation. After a brief literature survey a specific research work is presented to handle scheduling in holonic manufacturing systems. This work is based on task and resource holons that cooperate with each other based on a variant of the contract net protocol that allow the propagation of constraints between operations in the execution plan. The chapter ends by presenting some challenges and future opportunities of research.

ISEM: a multi-agent system that simulates competitive electronic marketplaces

With the increasing importance of large commerce across the Internet it is becoming increasingly evident that in a few years the Iternet will host a large number of interacting software agents. a vast number of them will be economically motivated, and will negociate a variety of goods and services. It is therefore important to consider the economic incentives and behaviours of economic software agents, and to use all available means to anticipate their collective interactions. This papers addresses this concern by presenting a multi-agent market simulator designed for analysing agent market strategies based on a complete understanding of buyer and seller behaviours, preference models and pricing algorithms, consideting risk preferences. The system includes agents that are capable of increasing their performance with their own experience, by adapting to the market conditions. The results of the negotiations between agents are analysed by data minig algorithms in order to extract rules that give agents feedback to imprive their strategies.

Estágio profissional: Câmara Municipal da Trofa

Relatório de Estágio apresentado ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientador: Rodrigo Mário Oliveira Carvalho, Dr. Coorientador: Vicente António Fernandes Seixas, Dr.

Betão betuminoso com betume anti-querosene Formulação, aplicação e comportamento

Mestrado em Engenharia Geotécnica e Geoambiente

Futuros financeiros: uma abordagem aos commodities de algodão

Dissertação de Mestrado Apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação de Mestre José Carlos Pedro