Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Real-Time Simulation of energy Management in a Domestic Consumer

Recent and future changes in power systems, mainly in the smart grid operation context, are related to a high complexity of power networks operation. This leads to more complex communications and to higher network elements monitoring and control levels, both from network’s and consumers’ standpoint. The present work focuses on a real scenario of the LASIE laboratory, located at the Polytechnic of Porto. Laboratory systems are managed by the SCADA House Intelligent Management (SHIM), already developed by the authors based on a SCADA system. The SHIM capacities have been recently improved by including real-time simulation from Opal RT. This makes possible the integration of Matlab®/Simulink® real-time simulation models. The main goal of the present paper is to compare the advantages of the resulting improved system, while managing the energy consumption of a domestic consumer.

Determining the receptivity to the bluetooth marketing by the portuguese consumer

With increasing technological innovation, the concept of marketing and its applications become more functional and wide. Today, we witness a steady growth in the development of mobile marketing campaigns, i.e., marketing campaigns targeting mobile devices (mobile phones, Smartphones, PDAs, tablets). Among the several mobile technologies available (Bluetooth networks, Wi-Fi, WAP, SMS service, MMS), Bluetooth seems to have the biggest potential for the least invasive consumer mobile marketing strategy. This study seeks to answer the question "what factors may motivate the Portuguese consumer to accept Bluetooth marketing?.“ We propose a conceptual model capable of investigating the relationships between the several responsiveness factors to Bluetooth marketing. The development of a set of hypotheses supported by an online questionnaire to a valid sample of 755 participants, demonstrates that there is a relationship between factors such as expanded knowledge of the technology, and Bluetooth marketing receptivity. Additionally, we find that the information value of mobile advertising messages, such as entertainment value and personalization, relates well to responsiveness. The ability to accept/dismiss promotional messages sent to mobile phones and other safety features also correlated well with Bluetooth marketing receptivity.