Logic programming and fuzzy Monte Carlo for distribution network reconfiguration

This paper present a methodology to choose the distribution networks reconfiguration that presents the lower power losses. The proposed methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of the distribution power system components and uses fuzzy-probabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method using fuzzy sets and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzyprobabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A logic programming algorithm is applied, once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo Simulation, to get all possible reconfigurations for each system state. To evaluate the line flows and bus voltages and to identify if there is any overloading, and/or voltage violation an AC load flow has been applied to select the feasible reconfiguration with lower power losses. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 115 buses distribution network.

Conditional probability applied to the definition of limestone geochemical facies: A new Methodological Approach

A new method, based on linear correlation and phase diagrams was successfully developed for processes like the sedimentary process, where the deposition phase can have different time duration - represented by repeated values in a series - and where the erosion can play an important rule deleting values of a series. The sampling process itself can be the cause of repeated values - large strata twice sampled - or deleted values: tiny strata fitted between two consecutive samples. What we developed was a mathematical procedure which, based upon the depth chemical composition evolution, allows the establishment of frontiers as well as the periodicity of different sedimentary environments. The basic tool isn't more than a linear correlation analysis which allow us to detect the existence of eventual evolution rules, connected with cyclical phenomena within time series (considering the space assimilated to time), with the final objective of prevision. A very interesting discovery was the phenomenon of repeated sliding windows that represent quasi-cycles of a series of quasi-periods. An accurate forecast can be obtained if we are inside a quasi-cycle (it is possible to predict the other elements of the cycle with the probability related with the number of repeated and deleted points). We deal with an innovator methodology, reason why it's efficiency is being tested in some case studies, with remarkable results that shows it's efficacy. Keywords: sedimentary environments, sequence stratigraphy, data analysis, time-series, conditional probability.

Adaptive Penalty and Barrier function based on Fuzzy Logic

Optimization methods have been used in many areas of knowledge, such as Engineering, Statistics, Chemistry, among others, to solve optimization problems. In many cases it is not possible to use derivative methods, due to the characteristics of the problem to be solved and/or its constraints, for example if the involved functions are non-smooth and/or their derivatives are not know. To solve this type of problems a Java based API has been implemented, which includes only derivative-free optimization methods, and that can be used to solve both constrained and unconstrained problems. For solving constrained problems, the classic Penalty and Barrier functions were included in the API. In this paper a new approach to Penalty and Barrier functions, based on Fuzzy Logic, is proposed. Two penalty functions, that impose a progressive penalization to solutions that violate the constraints, are discussed. The implemented functions impose a low penalization when the violation of the constraints is low and a heavy penalty when the violation is high. Numerical results, obtained using twenty-eight test problems, comparing the proposed Fuzzy Logic based functions to six of the classic Penalty and Barrier functions are presented. Considering the achieved results, it can be concluded that the proposed penalty functions besides being very robust also have a very good performance.