84 resultados para uncertainty evaluation


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Demand response has gain increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets environment. The use of demand resources is also advantageous in the context of smart grid operation. In addition to the need of new business models for integrating demand response, adequate methods are necessary for an accurate determination of the consumers’ performance evaluation after the participation in a demand response event. The present paper makes a comparison between some of the existing baseline methods related to the consumers’ performance evaluation, comparing the results obtained with these methods and also with a method proposed by the authors of the paper. A case study demonstrates the application of the referred methods to real consumption data belonging to a consumer connected to a distribution network.

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Electric power networks, namely distribution networks, have been suffering several changes during the last years due to changes in the power systems operation, towards the implementation of smart grids. Several approaches to the operation of the resources have been introduced, as the case of demand response, making use of the new capabilities of the smart grids. In the initial levels of the smart grids implementation reduced amounts of data are generated, namely consumption data. The methodology proposed in the present paper makes use of demand response consumers’ performance evaluation methods to determine the expected consumption for a given consumer. Then, potential commercial losses are identified using monthly historic consumption data. Real consumption data is used in the case study to demonstrate the application of the proposed method.

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Introduction: Cellulite is a complex architectural disorder with multifactorial etiologies that is prevalent in 98% of the women (1). Nowadays several aesthetic treatments are being used: surgical, cosmetic, physical, mechanical, and thermal. (2) Most treatments lack a substantial proof of efficacy. Objective: The purpose of this study was to test and evaluate the efficacy of Ultrasound, Homeopathic Ultrasonophoresis, and Homeopathic Mesotherapy versus control in cellulite in a population of women from ESTSP. Methods: Female volunteers (n=23), Caucasian, aged between 18-31 years, with BMI 19-27 kg/m2 with clinical cellulite gradation on the Cellulite Grading Scale of 1 to 4 were included in a control controlled study. Subjects were assigned in four different groups: Group I (Control, n=6), Group II (Ultrasound, (n=5), Group III (Homeopathic Ultrasonophoresis, n=6), Group IV (Homeopathic Mesotherapy, n=6). Groups II to IV were treated 3 times per week, for a total of 10 sessions. Cellulite gradation was evaluated at the beginning and the end of the trial by means of clinical photography, using a Canon IXUS 65 (6 mega pixels). For homeopathic treatments Dr. Reckeweg® Rekin® 59, 13 and 42 – Dietmed were used. The rating of perceived pain during Homeopathic Mesotherapy was evaluated by a visual analogic scale (VAS). The equipment Sonopuls 692, Enraf-Nonius was used for Ultrasound and Ultrasonophoresis treatments. Results:The higher number of participants with improvement in cellulite graduation occurred in group II (80%), followed group III (50%) and by group IV (33%). The group in which more changes in cellulite gradation occurred was group II, 20% of the individuals improved their score in 2 points. Results were statistically different between Group I and Group II, p=0,015. During the treatments of homeopathic mesotherapy the pain diminished 1 value in VAS scale. Discussion and Conclusion: Although all the three interventions groups were effective in the improvement of cellulite, as expected from previous works described in the literature, (2) only the ultrasound group was statistically different from control. These preliminary results point to the need of a new study using a higher number of participants and the same methodology.