Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Load Profiling

Load forecasting has gradually becoming a major field of research in electricity industry. Therefore, Load forecasting is extremely important for the electric sector under deregulated environment as it provides a useful support to the power system management. Accurate power load forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of a utility company, and they have received increasing attention from researches of this field study. Many mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. This work aims to develop and implement a load forecasting method for short-term load forecasting (STLF), based on Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and an artificial neural network (ANN). One of the main contributions of this paper is the application of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approach to the forecasting problem and, as an evaluation of the past forecasting work, data mining techniques are also applied to short-term Load forecasting. Both ANN and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approaches are compared and evaluated.

Stochastic Short-term Incentive-based Demand Response Scheduling of Load-serving Entities

In competitive electricity markets it is necessary for a profit-seeking load-serving entity (LSE) to optimally adjust the financial incentives offering the end users that buy electricity at regulated rates to reduce the consumption during high market prices. The LSE in this model manages the demand response (DR) by offering financial incentives to retail customers, in order to maximize its expected profit and reduce the risk of market power experience. The stochastic formulation is implemented into a test system where a number of loads are supplied through LSEs.

Determining the Adjustment Baseline Parameters to Define an Accurate Customer Baseline Load

Demand response is an energy resource that has gained increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets and of smart grids. New business models and methods designed to integrate demand response in electricity markets and of smart grids have been published, reporting the need of additional work in this field. In order to adequately remunerate the participation of the consumers in demand response programs, improved consumers’ performance evaluation methods are needed. The methodology proposed in the present paper determines the characterization of the baseline approach that better fits the consumer historic consumption, in order to determine the expected consumption in absent of participation in a demand response event and then determine the actual consumption reduction. The defined baseline can then be used to better determine the remuneration of the consumer. The paper includes a case study with real data to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology.

An automatic tool to Extract, Transform and Load data from real electricity markets

The study of Electricity Markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance in the last years, as result of the new challenges that the restructuring produced. Currently, lots of information concerning Electricity Markets is available, as market operators provide, after a period of confidentiality, data regarding market proposals and transactions. These data can be used as source of knowledge, to define realistic scenarios, essential for understanding and forecast Electricity Markets behaviour. The development of tools able to extract, transform, store and dynamically update data, is of great importance to go a step further into the comprehension of Electricity Markets and the behaviour of the involved entities. In this paper we present an adaptable tool capable of downloading, parsing and storing data from market operators’ websites, assuring actualization and reliability of stored data.

Load Control Timescales Simulation in a Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform

Environmental concerns and the shortage in the fossil fuel reserves have been potentiating the growth and globalization of distributed generation. Another resource that has been increasing its importance is the demand response, which is used to change consumers’ consumption profile, helping to reduce peak demand. Aiming to support small players’ participation in demand response events, the Curtailment Service Provider emerged. This player works as an aggregator for demand response events. The control of small and medium players which act in smart grid and micro grid environments is enhanced with a multi-agent system with artificial intelligence techniques – the MASGriP (Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform). Using strategic behaviours in each player, this system simulates the profile of real players by using software agents. This paper shows the importance of modeling these behaviours for studying this type of scenarios. A case study with three examples shows the differences between each player and the best behaviour in order to achieve the higher profit in each situation.

Load Profiling Tool to Support Smart Grid Operation Scenarios

This paper presents the characterization of high voltage (HV) electric power consumers based on a data clustering approach. The typical load profiles (TLP) are obtained selecting the best partition of a power consumption database among a pool of data partitions produced by several clustering algorithms. The choice of the best partition is supported using several cluster validity indices. The proposed data-mining (DM) based methodology, that includes all steps presented in the process of knowledge discovery in databases (KDD), presents an automatic data treatment application in order to preprocess the initial database in an automatic way, allowing time saving and better accuracy during this phase. These methods are intended to be used in a smart grid environment to extract useful knowledge about customers’ consumption behavior. To validate our approach, a case study with a real database of 185 HV consumers was used.

Shoulder Kinematics Is Not Influenced by External Load During Elevation in the Scapular Plane

The current study aimed to compare the shoulder kinematics (3D scapular orientation, scapular angular displacement and scapulohumeral rhythm) of asymptomatic participants under unloaded and loaded conditions during unilateral shoulder elevation in the scapular plane. We used a repeated-measures design with a convenience sample. Eleven male participants with an age range of 21–28 years with no recent history of shoulder injury participated in the study. The participants performed isometric shoulder elevation from a neutral position to approximately 150 degrees of elevation in the scapular plane in intervals of approximately 30 degrees during unloaded and loaded conditions. Shoulder kinematic data were obtained with videogrammetry. During shoulder elevation, the scapula rotated upwardly and externally, and tilted posteriorly. The addition of an external load did not affect 3D scapular orientation, scapular angular displacement, or scapulohumeral rhythm throughout shoulder elevation (P > .05). In clinical practice, clinicians should expect to observe upward and external rotation and posterior tilt of the scapula during their assessments of shoulder elevation. Such behavior was not influenced by an external load normalized to 5% of body weight when performed in an asymptomatic population.

The influence of task design on upper limb muscles fatigue during low-load repetitive work: A systematic review

Ergonomic interventions such as increased scheduled breaks or job rotation have been proposed to reduce upper limb muscle fatigue in repetitive low-load work. This review was performed to summarize and analyze the studies investigating the effect of job rotation and work-rest schemes, as well as, work pace, cycle time and duty cycle, on upper limb muscle fatigue. The effects of these work organization factors on subjective fatigue or discomfort were also analyzed. This review was based on relevant articles published in PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science. The studies included in this review were performed in humans and assessed muscle fatigue in upper limbs. 14 articles were included in the systematic review. Few studies were performed in a real work environment and the most common methods used to assess muscle fatigue were surface electromyography (EMG). No consistent results were found related to the effects of job rotation on muscle activity and subjective measurements of fatigue. Rest breaks had some positive effects, particularly in perceived discomfort. The increase in work pace reveals a higher muscular load in specific muscles. The duration of experiments and characteristics of participants appear to be the factors that most have influenced the results. Future research should be focused on the improvement of the experimental protocols and instrumentation, in order to the outcomes represent adequately the actual working conditions. Relevance to industry: Introducing more physical workload variation in low-load repetitive work is considered an effective ergonomic intervention against muscle fatigue and musculoskeletal disorders in industry. Results will be useful to identify the need of future research, which will eventually lead to the adoption of best industrial work practices according to the workers capabilities.

Efficient Legendre spectral tau algorithm for solving two-sided space-time Caputo fractional advection-dispersion equation

In this paper we present the operational matrices of the left Caputo fractional derivative, right Caputo fractional derivative and Riemann–Liouville fractional integral for shifted Legendre polynomials. We develop an accurate numerical algorithm to solve the two-sided space–time fractional advection–dispersion equation (FADE) based on a spectral shifted Legendre tau (SLT) method in combination with the derived shifted Legendre operational matrices. The fractional derivatives are described in the Caputo sense. We propose a spectral SLT method, both in temporal and spatial discretizations for the two-sided space–time FADE. This technique reduces the two-sided space–time FADE to a system of algebraic equations that simplifies the problem. Numerical results carried out to confirm the spectral accuracy and efficiency of the proposed algorithm. By selecting relatively few Legendre polynomial degrees, we are able to get very accurate approximations, demonstrating the utility of the new approach over other numerical methods.

A multi-objective model for scheduling of short-term incentive-based demand response programs offered by electricity retailers

In this paper, we formulate the electricity retailers’ short-term decision-making problem in a liberalized retail market as a multi-objective optimization model. Retailers with light physical assets, such as generation and storage units in the distribution network, are considered. Following advances in smart grid technologies, electricity retailers are becoming able to employ incentive-based demand response (DR) programs in addition to their physical assets to effectively manage the risks of market price and load variations. In this model, the DR scheduling is performed simultaneously with the dispatch of generation and storage units. The ultimate goal is to find the optimal values of the hourly financial incentives offered to the end-users. The proposed model considers the capacity obligations imposed on retailers by the grid operator. The profit seeking retailer also has the objective to minimize the peak demand to avoid the high capacity charges in form of grid tariffs or penalties. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) is used to solve the multi-objective problem. It is a fast and elitist multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. A case study is solved to illustrate the efficient performance of the proposed methodology. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the model for designing the incentive-based DR programs and indicate the efficiency of NSGA-II in solving the retailers’ multi-objective problem.

The influence of gait cadence on the ground reaction forces and plantar pressures during load carriage of young adults

Biomechanical gait parameters—ground reaction forces (GRFs) and plantar pressures—during load carriage of young adults were compared at a low gait cadence and a high gait cadence. Differences between load carriage and normal walking during both gait cadences were also assessed. A force plate and an in-shoe plantar pressure system were used to assess 60 adults while they were walking either normally (unloaded condition) or wearing a backpack (loaded condition) at low (70 steps per minute) and high gait cadences (120 steps per minute). GRF and plantar pressure peaks were scaled to body weight (or body weight plus backpack weight). With medium to high effect sizes we found greater anterior-posterior and vertical GRFs and greater plantar pressure peaks in the rearfoot, forefoot and hallux when the participants walked carrying a backpack at high gait cadences compared to walking at low gait cadences. Differences between loaded and unloaded conditions in both gait cadences were also observed.

Algoritmo genético para empacotamento de contentores

No âmbito da investigação operacional o problema de empacotamento de contentores é conhecido por procurar definir uma configuração de carga, de forma a otimizar a utilização de um espaço disponível para efetuar o empacotamento. Este problema pode ser apresentado em diversas formas, formas estas que variam em função das características de cada empacotamento. Estas características podem ser: o tipo de carga que se pretende carregar (homogénea ou heterogénea), a possibilidade de a carga poder sofrer rotações em todas as suas dimensões ou apenas em algumas, o lucro que está associado a cada caixa carregada ou restrições inerentes ao contentor como por exemplo dimensões. O interesse pelo estudo de problemas de empacotamento de contentores tem vindo a receber cada vez mais ênfase por várias razões, uma delas é o interesse financeiro dado que o transporte é uma prática que representa custos, sendo importante diminuir estes custos aproveitando o volume do contentor da melhor forma. Outra preocupação que motiva o estudo deste problema prende-se com fatores ambientes, onde se procura racionalizar os recursos naturais estando esta também ligada a questões financeiras. Na literatura podem ser encontradas varias propostas para solucionar este problema, cada uma destas dirigidas a uma variante do problema, estas propostas podem ser determinísticas ou não determinísticas onde utilizam heurísticas ou metaheurísticas. O estudo realizado nesta dissertação descreve algumas destas propostas, nomeadamente as metaheurísticas que são utilizadas na resolução deste problema. O trabalho aqui apresentado traz também uma nova metaheurísticas, mais precisamente um algoritmo genético que terá como objetivo, apresentar uma configuração de carga para um problema de empacotamento de um contentor. O algoritmo genético tem como objetivo a resolução do seguinte problema: empacotar várias caixas retangulares com diversos tamanhos num contentor. Este problema é conhecido como Bin-Packing. A novidade que este algoritmo genético vai introduzir nas diversas soluções apresentadas até à data, é uma nova forma de criar padrões iniciais, ou seja, é utilizada a heurística HSSI (Heurística de Suavização de Superfícies Irregulares) que tem como objetivo criar uma população inicial de forma a otimizar o algoritmo genético. A heurística HSSI tenta resolver problemas de empacotamento simulando, o comportamento da maioria das pessoas ao fazer este processo na vida real, contudo, tem um campo de busca reduzido entre as soluções possíveis e será então utilizado um algoritmo genético para ampliar este campo de busca e explorar novas soluções. No final pretende-se obter um software onde será possível configurar um dado problema de empacotamento de um contentor e obter, a solução do mesmo através do algoritmo genético. Assim sendo, o estudo realizado tem como principal objetivo contribuir com pesquisas e conclusões, sobre este problema e trazer uma nova proposta de solução para o problema de empacotamento de contentores.

PIASA: A power and interference aware resource management strategy for heterogeneous workloads in cloud data centers

Cloud data centers have been progressively adopted in different scenarios, as reflected in the execution of heterogeneous applications with diverse workloads and diverse quality of service (QoS) requirements. Virtual machine (VM) technology eases resource management in physical servers and helps cloud providers achieve goals such as optimization of energy consumption. However, the performance of an application running inside a VM is not guaranteed due to the interference among co-hosted workloads sharing the same physical resources. Moreover, the different types of co-hosted applications with diverse QoS requirements as well as the dynamic behavior of the cloud makes efficient provisioning of resources even more difficult and a challenging problem in cloud data centers. In this paper, we address the problem of resource allocation within a data center that runs different types of application workloads, particularly CPU- and network-intensive applications. To address these challenges, we propose an interference- and power-aware management mechanism that combines a performance deviation estimator and a scheduling algorithm to guide the resource allocation in virtualized environments. We conduct simulations by injecting synthetic workloads whose characteristics follow the last version of the Google Cloud tracelogs. The results indicate that our performance-enforcing strategy is able to fulfill contracted SLAs of real-world environments while reducing energy costs by as much as 21%.

Experimental characterization of the out-of-plane performance of regular stone masonry walls, including test setups and axial load influence

Stone masonry is one of the oldest and most worldwide used building techniques. Nevertheless, the structural response of masonry structures is complex and the effective knowledge about their mechanical behaviour is still limited. This fact is particularly notorious when dealing with the description of their out-of-plane behaviour under horizontal loadings, as is the case of the earthquake action. In this context, this paper describes an experimental program, conducted in laboratory environment, aiming at characterizing the out-of-plane behaviour of traditional unreinforced stone masonry walls. In the scope of this campaign, six full-scale sacco stone masonry specimens were fully characterised regarding their most important mechanic, geometric and dynamic features and were tested resorting to two different loading techniques under three distinct vertical pre-compression states; three of the specimens were subjected to an out-of-plane surface load by means of a system of airbags and the remaining were subjected to an out-of-plane horizontal line-load at the top. From the experiments it was possible to observe that both test setups were able to globally mobilize the out-of-plane response of the walls, which presented substantial displacement capacity, with ratios of ultimate displacement to the wall thickness ranging between 26 and 45 %, as well as good energy dissipation capacity. Finally, very interesting results were also obtained from a simple analytical model used herein to compute a set of experimental-based ratios, namely between the maximum stability displacement and the wall thickness for which a mean value of about 60 % was found.

A filter algorithm: comparison with NLP solvers

The purpose of this work is to present an algorithm to solve nonlinear constrained optimization problems, using the filter method with the inexact restoration (IR) approach. In the IR approach two independent phases are performed in each iteration—the feasibility and the optimality phases. The first one directs the iterative process into the feasible region, i.e. finds one point with less constraints violation. The optimality phase starts from this point and its goal is to optimize the objective function into the satisfied constraints space. To evaluate the solution approximations in each iteration a scheme based on the filter method is used in both phases of the algorithm. This method replaces the merit functions that are based on penalty schemes, avoiding the related difficulties such as the penalty parameter estimation and the non-differentiability of some of them. The filter method is implemented in the context of the line search globalization technique. A set of more than two hundred AMPL test problems is solved. The algorithm developed is compared with LOQO and NPSOL software packages.