118 resultados para BAYESIAN APPROACH
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A new method, based on linear correlation and phase diagrams was successfully developed for processes like the sedimentary process, where the deposition phase can have different time duration - represented by repeated values in a series - and where the erosion can play an important rule deleting values of a series. The sampling process itself can be the cause of repeated values - large strata twice sampled - or deleted values: tiny strata fitted between two consecutive samples. What we developed was a mathematical procedure which, based upon the depth chemical composition evolution, allows the establishment of frontiers as well as the periodicity of different sedimentary environments. The basic tool isn't more than a linear correlation analysis which allow us to detect the existence of eventual evolution rules, connected with cyclical phenomena within time series (considering the space assimilated to time), with the final objective of prevision. A very interesting discovery was the phenomenon of repeated sliding windows that represent quasi-cycles of a series of quasi-periods. An accurate forecast can be obtained if we are inside a quasi-cycle (it is possible to predict the other elements of the cycle with the probability related with the number of repeated and deleted points). We deal with an innovator methodology, reason why it's efficiency is being tested in some case studies, with remarkable results that shows it's efficacy. Keywords: sedimentary environments, sequence stratigraphy, data analysis, time-series, conditional probability.
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In the current context of serious climate changes, where the increase of the frequency of some extreme events occurrence can enhance the rate of periods prone to high intensity forest fires, the National Forest Authority often implements, in several Portuguese forest areas, a regular set of measures in order to control the amount of fuel mass availability (PNDFCI, 2008). In the present work we’ll present a preliminary analysis concerning the assessment of the consequences given by the implementation of prescribed fire measures to control the amount of fuel mass in soil recovery, in particular in terms of its water retention capacity, its organic matter content, pH and content of iron. This work is included in a larger study (Meira-Castro, 2009(a); Meira-Castro, 2009(b)). According to the established praxis on the data collection, embodied in multidimensional matrices of n columns (variables in analysis) by p lines (sampled areas at different depths), and also considering the quantitative data nature present in this study, we’ve chosen a methodological approach that considers the multivariate statistical analysis, in particular, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA ) (Góis, 2004). The experiments were carried out in a soil cover over a natural site of Andaluzitic schist, in Gramelas, Caminha, NW Portugal, who was able to maintain itself intact from prescribed burnings from four years and was submit to prescribed fire in March 2008. The soils samples were collected from five different plots at six different time periods. The methodological option that was adopted have allowed us to identify the most relevant relational structures inside the n variables, the p samples and in two sets at the same time (Garcia-Pereira, 1990). Consequently, and in addition to the traditional outputs produced from the PCA, we have analyzed the influence of both sampling depths and geomorphological environments in the behavior of all variables involved.
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Volatile organic compounds are a common source of groundwater contamination that can be easily removed by air stripping in columns with random packing and using a counter-current flow between the phases. This work proposes a new methodology for column design for any type of packing and contaminant which avoids the necessity of an arbitrary chosen diameter. It also avoids the employment of the usual graphical Eckert correlations for pressure drop. The hydraulic features are previously chosen as a project criterion. The design procedure was translated into a convenient algorithm in C++ language. A column was built in order to test the design, the theoretical steady-state and dynamic behaviour. The experiments were conducted using a solution of chloroform in distilled water. The results allowed for a correction in the theoretical global mass transfer coefficient previously estimated by the Onda correlations, which depend on several parameters that are not easy to control in experiments. For best describe the column behaviour in stationary and dynamic conditions, an original mathematical model was developed. It consists in a system of two partial non linear differential equations (distributed parameters). Nevertheless, when flows are steady, the system became linear, although there is not an evident solution in analytical terms. In steady state the resulting ODE can be solved by analytical methods, and in dynamic state the discretization of the PDE by finite differences allows for the overcoming of this difficulty. To estimate the contaminant concentrations in both phases in the column, a numerical algorithm was used. The high number of resulting algebraic equations and the impossibility of generating a recursive procedure did not allow the construction of a generalized programme. But an iterative procedure developed in an electronic worksheet allowed for the simulation. The solution is stable only for similar discretizations values. If different values for time/space discretization parameters are used, the solution easily becomes unstable. The system dynamic behaviour was simulated for the common liquid phase perturbations: step, impulse, rectangular pulse and sinusoidal. The final results do not configure strange or non-predictable behaviours.
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The ability to solve conflicting beliefs is crucial for multi- agent systems where the information is dynamic, incomplete and dis- tributed over a group of autonomous agents. The proposed distributed belief revision approach consists of a distributed truth maintenance sy- stem and a set of autonomous belief revision methodologies. The agents have partial views and, frequently, hold disparate beliefs which are au- tomatically detected by system’s reason maintenance mechanism. The nature of these conflicts is dynamic and requires adequate methodolo- gies for conflict resolution. The two types of conflicting beliefs addressed in this paper are Context Dependent and Context Independent Conflicts which result, in the first case, from the assignment, by different agents, of opposite belief statuses to the same belief, and, in the latter case, from holding contradictory distinct beliefs. The belief revision methodology for solving Context Independent Con- flicts is, basically, a selection process based on the assessment of the cre- dibility of the opposing belief statuses. The belief revision methodology for solving Context Dependent Conflicts is, essentially, a search process for a consensual alternative based on a “next best” relaxation strategy.
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The environmental management domain is vast and encompasses many identifiable activities: impact assessment, planning, project evaluation, etc. In particular, this paper focusses on the modelling of the project evaluation activity. The environmental decision support system under development aims to provide assistance to project developers in the selection of adequate locations, guaranteeing the compliance with the applicable regulations and the existing development plans as well as satisfying the specified project requirements. The inherent multidisciplinarity features of this activity lead to the adoption of the Multi-Agent paradigm, and, in particular, to the modelling of the involved agencies as a community of cooperative autonomous agents, where each agency contributes with its share of problem solving to the final system’s recommendation. To achieve this behaviour the many conclusions of the individual agencies have to be justifiably accommodated: not only they may differ, but can be interdependent, complementary, irreconcilable, or simply, independent. We propose different solutions (involving both local and global consistency) to support the adequate merge of the distinct perspectives that inevitably arise during this type of decision making.
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Decision making in any environmental domain is a complex and demanding activity, justifying the development of dedicated decision support systems. Every decision is confronted with a large variety and amount of constraints to satisfy as well as contradictory interests that must be sensibly accommodated. The first stage of a project evaluation is its submission to the relevant group of public (and private) agencies. The individual role of each agency is to verify, within its domain of competence, the fulfilment of the set of applicable regulations. The scope of the involved agencies is wide and ranges from evaluation abilities on the technical or economical domains to evaluation competences on the environmental or social areas. The second project evaluation stage involves the gathering of the recommendations of the individual agencies and their justified merge to produce the final conclusion. The incorporation and accommodation of the consulted agencies opinions is of extreme importance: opinions may not only differ, but can be interdependent, complementary, irreconcilable or, simply, independent. The definition of adequate methodologies to sensibly merge, whenever possible, the existing perspectives while preserving the overall legality of the system, will lead to the making of sound justified decisions. The proposed Environmental Decision Support System models the project evaluation activity and aims to assist developers in the selection of adequate locations for their projects, guaranteeing their compliance with the applicable regulations.
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19-22 June 2012 Madrid, Spain
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To meet the increasing demands of the complex inter-organizational processes and the demand for continuous innovation and internationalization, it is evident that new forms of organisation are being adopted, fostering more intensive collaboration processes and sharing of resources, in what can be called collaborative networks (Camarinha-Matos, 2006:03). Information and knowledge are crucial resources in collaborative networks, being their management fundamental processes to optimize. Knowledge organisation and collaboration systems are thus important instruments for the success of collaborative networks of organisations having been researched in the last decade in the areas of computer science, information science, management sciences, terminology and linguistics. Nevertheless, research in this area didn’t give much attention to multilingual contexts of collaboration, which pose specific and challenging problems. It is then clear that access to and representation of knowledge will happen more and more on a multilingual setting which implies the overcoming of difficulties inherent to the presence of multiple languages, through the use of processes like localization of ontologies. Although localization, like other processes that involve multilingualism, is a rather well-developed practice and its methodologies and tools fruitfully employed by the language industry in the development and adaptation of multilingual content, it has not yet been sufficiently explored as an element of support to the development of knowledge representations - in particular ontologies - expressed in more than one language. Multilingual knowledge representation is then an open research area calling for cross-contributions from knowledge engineering, terminology, ontology engineering, cognitive sciences, computational linguistics, natural language processing, and management sciences. This workshop joined researchers interested in multilingual knowledge representation, in a multidisciplinary environment to debate the possibilities of cross-fertilization between knowledge engineering, terminology, ontology engineering, cognitive sciences, computational linguistics, natural language processing, and management sciences applied to contexts where multilingualism continuously creates new and demanding challenges to current knowledge representation methods and techniques. In this workshop six papers dealing with different approaches to multilingual knowledge representation are presented, most of them describing tools, approaches and results obtained in the development of ongoing projects. In the first case, Andrés Domínguez Burgos, Koen Kerremansa and Rita Temmerman present a software module that is part of a workbench for terminological and ontological mining, Termontospider, a wiki crawler that aims at optimally traverse Wikipedia in search of domainspecific texts for extracting terminological and ontological information. The crawler is part of a tool suite for automatically developing multilingual termontological databases, i.e. ontologicallyunderpinned multilingual terminological databases. In this paper the authors describe the basic principles behind the crawler and summarized the research setting in which the tool is currently tested. In the second paper, Fumiko Kano presents a work comparing four feature-based similarity measures derived from cognitive sciences. The purpose of the comparative analysis presented by the author is to verify the potentially most effective model that can be applied for mapping independent ontologies in a culturally influenced domain. For that, datasets based on standardized pre-defined feature dimensions and values, which are obtainable from the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) have been used for the comparative analysis of the similarity measures. The purpose of the comparison is to verify the similarity measures based on the objectively developed datasets. According to the author the results demonstrate that the Bayesian Model of Generalization provides for the most effective cognitive model for identifying the most similar corresponding concepts existing for a targeted socio-cultural community. In another presentation, Thierry Declerck, Hans-Ulrich Krieger and Dagmar Gromann present an ongoing work and propose an approach to automatic extraction of information from multilingual financial Web resources, to provide candidate terms for building ontology elements or instances of ontology concepts. The authors present a complementary approach to the direct localization/translation of ontology labels, by acquiring terminologies through the access and harvesting of multilingual Web presences of structured information providers in the field of finance, leading to both the detection of candidate terms in various multilingual sources in the financial domain that can be used not only as labels of ontology classes and properties but also for the possible generation of (multilingual) domain ontologies themselves. In the next paper, Manuel Silva, António Lucas Soares and Rute Costa claim that despite the availability of tools, resources and techniques aimed at the construction of ontological artifacts, developing a shared conceptualization of a given reality still raises questions about the principles and methods that support the initial phases of conceptualization. These questions become, according to the authors, more complex when the conceptualization occurs in a multilingual setting. To tackle these issues the authors present a collaborative platform – conceptME - where terminological and knowledge representation processes support domain experts throughout a conceptualization framework, allowing the inclusion of multilingual data as a way to promote knowledge sharing and enhance conceptualization and support a multilingual ontology specification. In another presentation Frieda Steurs and Hendrik J. Kockaert present us TermWise, a large project dealing with legal terminology and phraseology for the Belgian public services, i.e. the translation office of the ministry of justice, a project which aims at developing an advanced tool including expert knowledge in the algorithms that extract specialized language from textual data (legal documents) and whose outcome is a knowledge database including Dutch/French equivalents for legal concepts, enriched with the phraseology related to the terms under discussion. Finally, Deborah Grbac, Luca Losito, Andrea Sada and Paolo Sirito report on the preliminary results of a pilot project currently ongoing at UCSC Central Library, where they propose to adapt to subject librarians, employed in large and multilingual Academic Institutions, the model used by translators working within European Union Institutions. The authors are using User Experience (UX) Analysis in order to provide subject librarians with a visual support, by means of “ontology tables” depicting conceptual linking and connections of words with concepts presented according to their semantic and linguistic meaning. The organizers hope that the selection of papers presented here will be of interest to a broad audience, and will be a starting point for further discussion and cooperation.
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The massification of electric vehicles (EVs) can have a significant impact on the power system, requiring a new approach for the energy resource management. The energy resource management has the objective to obtain the optimal scheduling of the available resources considering distributed generators, storage units, demand response and EVs. The large number of resources causes more complexity in the energy resource management, taking several hours to reach the optimal solution which requires a quick solution for the next day. Therefore, it is necessary to use adequate optimization techniques to determine the best solution in a reasonable amount of time. This paper presents a hybrid artificial intelligence technique to solve a complex energy resource management problem with a large number of resources, including EVs, connected to the electric network. The hybrid approach combines simulated annealing (SA) and ant colony optimization (ACO) techniques. The case study concerns different EVs penetration levels. Comparisons with a previous SA approach and a deterministic technique are also presented. For 2000 EVs scenario, the proposed hybrid approach found a solution better than the previous SA version, resulting in a cost reduction of 1.94%. For this scenario, the proposed approach is approximately 94 times faster than the deterministic approach.
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In recent years, mobile learning has emerged as an educational approach to decrease the limitation of learning location and adapt the teaching-learning process to all type of students. However, the large number and variety of Web-enabled devices poses challenges for Web content creators who want to automatic get the delivery context and adapt the content to mobile devices. This paper studies several approaches to adapt the learning content to mobile phones. It presents an architecture for deliver uniform m-Learning content to students in a higher School. The system development is organized in two phases: firstly enabling the educational content to mobile devices and then adapting it to all the heterogeneous mobile platforms. With this approach, Web authors will not need to create specialized pages for each kind of device, since the content is automatically transformed to adapt to any mobile device capabilities from WAP to XHTML MP-compliant devices.
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The efficacy, cellular uptake and specific transport of dietary antioxidants to target organs, tissues and cells remains the most important setback for their application in the treatment of oxidative-stress related disorders and in particular in neurodegenerative diseases, as brain targeting remains a still unsolved challenge. Nanotechnology based delivery systems can be a solution for the above mentioned problems, specifically in the case of targeting dietary antioxidants with neuroprotective activity. Nanotechnology-based delivery systems can protect antioxidants from degradation, improve their physicochemical drug-like properties and in turn their bioavailability. The impact of nanomedicine in the improvement of the performance of dietary antioxidants, as protective agents in oxidative- stress events, specifically through the use of drug delivery systems, is highlighted in this review as well as the type of nanomaterials regularly used for drug delivery purposes. From the data one can conclude that the research combining (dietary) antioxidants and nanotechnology, namely as a therapeutic solution for neurodegenerative diseases, is still in a very early stage. So, a huge research area remains to be explored that hopefully will yield new and effective neuroprotective therapeutic agents in a foreseeable future.
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The fractal geometry is used to model of a naturally fractured reservoir and the concept of fractional derivative is applied to the diffusion equation to incorporate the history of fluid flow in naturally fractured reservoirs. The resulting fractally fractional diffusion (FFD) equation is solved analytically in the Laplace space for three outer boundary conditions. The analytical solutions are used to analyze the response of a naturally fractured reservoir considering the anomalous behavior of oil production. Several synthetic examples are provided to illustrate the methodology proposed in this work and to explain the diffusion process in fractally fractured systems.
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Radiotherapy is one of the main treatments used against cancer. Radiotherapy uses radiation to destroy cancerous cells trying, at the same time, to minimize the damages in healthy tissues. The planning of a radiotherapy treatment is patient dependent, resulting in a lengthy trial and error procedure until a treatment complying as most as possible with the medical prescription is found. Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) is one technique of radiation treatment that allows the achievement of a high degree of conformity between the area to be treated and the dose absorbed by healthy tissues. Nevertheless, it is still not possible to eliminate completely the potential treatments’ side-effects. In this retrospective study we use the clinical data from patients with head-and-neck cancer treated at the Portuguese Institute of Oncology of Coimbra and explore the possibility of classifying new and untreated patients according to the probability of xerostomia 12 months after the beginning of IMRT treatments by using a logistic regression approach. The results obtained show that the classifier presents a high discriminative ability in predicting the binary response “at risk for xerostomia at 12 months”
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Mestrado em Engenharia Informática - Área de Especialização em Tecnologias do Conhecimento e Decisão
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Measuring the quality of a b-learning environment is critical to determine the success of a b-learning course. Several initiatives have been recently conducted on benchmarking and quality in e-learning. Despite these efforts in defining and examining quality issues concerning online courses, a defining instrument to evaluate quality is one of the key challenges for blended learning, since it incorporates both traditional and online instruction methods. For this paper, six frameworks for quality assessment of technological enhanced learning were examined and compared regarding similarities and differences. These frameworks aim at the same global objective: the quality of e-learning environment/products. They present different perspectives but also many common issues. Some of them are more specific and related to the course and other are more global and related to institutional aspects. In this work we collected and arrange all the quality criteria identified in order to get a more complete framework and determine if it fits our b-learning environment. We also included elements related to our own b-learning research and experience, acquired during more than 10 years of experience. As a result we have create a new quality reference with a set of dimensions and criteria that should be taken into account when you are analyzing, designing, developing, implementing and evaluating a b-learning environment. Besides these perspectives on what to do when you are developing a b-learning environment we have also included pedagogical issues in order to give directions on how to do it to reach the success of the learning. The information, concepts and procedures here presented give support to teachers and instructors, which intend to validate the quality of their blended learning courses.