Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: a framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. A critical issue regarding these specific characteristics concerns the constant changes they are subject to. This is a result of the electricity markets’ restructuring, which was performed so that the competitiveness could be increased, but it also had exponential implications in the increase of the complexity and unpredictability in those markets scope. The constant growth in markets unpredictability resulted in an amplified need for market intervenient entities in foreseeing market behaviour. The need for understanding the market mechanisms and how the involved players’ interaction affects the outcomes of the markets, contributed to the growth of usage of simulation tools. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyze dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. This dissertation presents ALBidS – Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System, a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. This system is integrated with the MASCEM electricity market simulator, so that its advantage in supporting a market player can be tested using cases based on real markets’ data. ALBidS considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches, to provide alternative suggestions of which are the best actions for the supported player to perform. The approach chosen as the players’ actual action is selected by the employment of reinforcement learning algorithms, which for each different situation, simulation circumstances and context, decides which proposed action is the one with higher possibility of achieving the most success. Some of the considered approaches are supported by a mechanism that creates profiles of competitor players. These profiles are built accordingly to their observed past actions and reactions when faced with specific situations, such as success and failure. The system’s context awareness and simulation circumstances analysis, both in terms of results performance and execution time adaptation, are complementary mechanisms, which endow ALBidS with further adaptation and learning capabilities.

Regimes de neutro em média tensão em subestações de distribuição de energia elétrica

A existência do regime de neutro em subestações de distribuição de energia elétrica é essencial para o bom funcionamento de toda a rede. Existe um vasto leque de opções no que diz respeito aos regimes de neutro. Cada opção tem as suas vantagens e desvantagens, e cabe às empresas do setor elétrico a escolha do regime de neutro mais adequado em função das caraterísticas da rede. A escolha do regime de neutro tem influência direta no desempenho global de toda a rede de média tensão. O principal objetivo desta dissertação é o estudo e a análise das vantagens e inconvenientes dos vários regimes de neutro: neutro isolado, neutro impedante, ligado diretamente à terra, neutro ressonante, analisando as suas vantagens e inconvenientes. É feito um estudo aprofundado do regime de neutro ressonante, também designado por regime de neutro com a Bobine de Petersen. Este trabalho descreve, ainda, de forma sucinta a situação de Portugal relativamente aos regimes de neutro que utiliza e a sua perspetiva futura. Por fim é apresentado um caso de estudo, que diz respeito a uma rede de média tensão (30 kV) alimentada pela subestação de Serpa. Foram estudados os regimes de neutro como a bobine de Petersen, reatância de neutro e neutro isolado. Foi também estudada a influência na ocorrência de um defeito fase-terra e a influência na ocorrência de defeitos francos e resistivos em vários pontos da rede.

Six thinking hats for electricity markets simulation: adapting meeting tools to agent decision

In almost all industrialized countries, the energy sector has suffered a severe restructuring that originated a greater complexity in market players’ interactions. The complexity that these changes brought made way for the creation of decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets. MASCEM – “Multiagent Simulator for Competitive Electricity Markets” arose in this context providing a framework for evaluating new rules, new behaviour, and new participants in deregulated electricity markets. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimisation techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. ALBidS is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM it considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches. The Six Thinking Hats is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives. This tool’s goal is to force the thinker to move outside his habitual thinking style. It was developed to be used mainly at meetings in order to “run better meetings, make faster decisions”. This dissertation presents a study about the applicability of the Six Thinking Hats technique in Decision Support Systems, particularly with the multiagent paradigm like the MASCEM simulator. As such this work’s proposal is of a new agent, a meta-learner based on STH technique that organizes several different ALBidS’ strategies and combines the distinct answers into a single one that, expectedly, out-performs any of them.

Mixed integer non linear programming and artificial neural network based approach to ancillary services dispatch in competitive electricity markets

Ancillary services represent a good business opportunity that must be considered by market players. This paper presents a new methodology for ancillary services market dispatch. The method considers the bids submitted to the market and includes a market clearing mechanism based on deterministic optimization. An Artificial Neural Network is used for day-ahead prediction of Regulation Down, regulation-up, Spin Reserve and Non-Spin Reserve requirements. Two test cases based on California Independent System Operator data concerning dispatch of Regulation Down, Regulation Up, Spin Reserve and Non-Spin Reserve services are included in this paper to illustrate the application of the proposed method: (1) dispatch considering simple bids; (2) dispatch considering complex bids.

Strategic bidding in electricity markets: an agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices – a cointegrated VECM analysis

This paper addresses the impact of the CO2 opportunity cost on the wholesale electricity price in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), namely on the Portuguese system, for the period corresponding to the Phase II of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the econometric analysis a vector error correction model (VECM) is specified to estimate both long–run equilibrium relations and short–run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The model is estimated using daily spot market prices and the four commodities prices are jointly modelled as endogenous variables. Moreover, a set of exogenous variables is incorporated in order to account for the electricity demand conditions (temperature) and the electricity generation mix (quantity of electricity traded according the technology used). The outcomes for the Portuguese electricity system suggest that the dynamic pass–through of carbon prices into electricity prices is strongly significant and a long–run elasticity was estimated (equilibrium relation) that is aligned with studies that have been conducted for other markets.

Multidimensional scaling analysis of electricity market prices

This paper studies the impact of energy and stock markets upon electricity markets using Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). Historical values from major energy, stock and electricity markets are adopted. To analyze the data several graphs produced by MDS are presented and discussed. This method is useful to have a deeper insight into the behavior and the correlation of the markets. The results may also guide the construction models, helping electricity markets agents hedging against Market Clearing Price (MCP) volatility and, simultaneously, to achieve better financial results.

Credit risk measures: a case of renewable energy companies

The Basel III will have a significant impact on the European banking sector. In September 2010, supervisors of various countries adopted the new rules proposed by the prudential Committee on Banking Supervision to be applied to the business of credit institutions (hereinafter called ICs) in a phased manner from 2013, assuming to its full implementation by 2019. The purpose of this new regulation is to limit the excessive risk that these institutions took on the period preceding the global financial crisis of 2008. This new regulation is known in slang by Basel III. Depending on the requirement of Basel II for banks and their supervisors to assess the soundness and adequacy of internal risk measurement and credit management systems, the development of methodologies for the validation of internal and external evaluation systems is clearly an important issue . More specifically, there is a need to develop tools to validate the systems used to generate the parameters (such as PD, LGD, EAD and ratings of perceived risk) that serve as starting points for the IRB approach for credit risk. In this context, the work is composed of a number of approaches and tools used to evaluate the robustness of these elements IRB systems.

Retaining repatriates: an exploratory study in portuguese companies

This study aims to understand the factors which may explain the retention of repatriates from companies acting within Portugal. These factors can be related either to the individual, or to the work, to the organisation or to non-working contexts. Eight companies located in Portugal have participated in this study. Several semi-structured interviews were done to 16 organizational representatives and to 28 repatriates. The obtained results show that the repatriates’ retention on the visited companies may be influenced by several categories of factors. We can conclude that it is (1) the good relation with the leadership, (2) the recognition of the performed job but, also (3) the seniority, (4) the age and the (5) depressed national job market. These are the major factors that emerge as relevant factors for the retention. Hence, there is not only one category of explaining determining factors for the retention decision, but there are several. These findings will be discussed in detail and implications and suggestions for future research will be proposed as well.

The determinants of trade credit: a study of portuguese industrial companies

Despite the relevance of trade credit as a source of business financing, the topic is far from being considered exhausted, especially because there is no general and integrated theory explaining the causes and consequences of trade credit.Our research aims to contribute towards the literature that studies the determinants for granting and receiving trade credit. In this sequence, the present study seeks to empirically test some theories about the reasons why companies grant and receive commercial credit. For this purpose we apply a fixed effect model to a panel of 11 040 Portuguese industrial companies, of which 360 are large companies and the majority 10 680 are Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) for the period between 2003 and 2009. We conclude that large companies (with greater access to credit market) serve as financial intermediaries to their clients with less access to finance. In addition, it was observed that the supplier companies use trade credit as a legal means of price discrimination. Finally, financially constrained enterprises, especially in times of financial crisis, use commercial credit as an alternative source of funding, endorsing the hypothesis of substitution between trade credit and bank credit.

Knowledge management in multinational companies: the repatriates’ role in the competitive advantage in subsidiaries

This paper addresses the topic of knowledge management in multinational companies (MNCs). Its purpose is to examine the role of expatriates in knowledge acquisition and transfer within MNCs. Specifically it focuses on knowledge acquisition and transfer from one MNC head office located in Germany to two Portuguese subsidiaries as a basis for competitive advantage in their Portuguese subsidiaries. A qualitative research methodology is used, specifically through an exploratory case study approach, which examines how international assignments are important for the role of expatriates In knowledge acquisition and transfer between foreign head offices and their Portuguese subsidiaries. The data were collected through semi structured interviews to 10 Portuguese repatriates from two Portuguese subsidiaries of one foreign MNC. The findings suggest that the reasons that lead to expatriating employees from Portuguese subsidiaries to foreign head offices are connected to (1) knowledge management strategies to development the subsidiary’s performance; (2) new skills and knowledge acquisition by future team leaders and business/product managers in Portuguese subsidiaries; (3) procuring knowledge, from agents in head office, to be disseminated amongst co-workers in Portuguese subsidiaries; (4) acquiring global management skills, impossible to acquire locally and; (5) developing global projects within MNC. Also our results show that knowledge acquisition and transfer from foreign head office, through subsidiaries’ expatriates, contributes directly to the Portuguese subsidiaries’ innovation, improved performance, competitive advantage and growth in the economic sectors in which they operate. Moreover, evidence reveals that expatriation is seen as a strategy to fulfil some of the main organisational objectives through their expatriates (e.g., create new products and business markets, develop and incorporate new organisational techniques and processes, integrate global teams within multinational corporation with a responsibility on the definition of global objectives). The results obtained suggest that expatriates have a central role in acquiring and transferring strategic knowledge from MNC head office to their subsidiaries located in Portugal. Based on the findings, the paper discusses in detail the main theoretical and managerial implications. Suggestions for further research are also presented. The study’s main limitation is the small size of the sample, but its findings and methodology are quite original and significant.

Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: A framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. This paper presents a methodology to provide decision support to electricity market negotiating players. This model allows integrating different strategic approaches for electricity market negotiations, and choosing the most appropriate one at each time, for each different negotiation context. This methodology is integrated in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System) – a multiagent system that provides decision support to MASCEM's negotiating agents so that they can properly achieve their goals. ALBidS uses artificial intelligence methodologies and data analysis algorithms to provide effective adaptive learning capabilities to such negotiating entities. The main contribution is provided by a methodology that combines several distinct strategies to build actions proposals, so that the best can be chosen at each time, depending on the context and simulation circumstances. The choosing process includes reinforcement learning algorithms, a mechanism for negotiating contexts analysis, a mechanism for the management of the efficiency/effectiveness balance of the system, and a mechanism for competitor players' profiles definition.

Six sigma methodologies: implementation and impacts on Portuguese small and medium companies (SMES)

Artigo elaborador no âmbito dos trabalhos decorrentes à dissertação de Mestrado do Aluno David Leite, no Mestrado em Gestão Integrada Qualidade, Ambiente e Segurança, ESTGF-IPP, Oreintados pelos Professores Luís Fonseca (ISEP-IPP) e Vanda Lima (ESTGF-IPP).

Size matters when we talk about corporate social responsibility: the case of portuguese companies

Social responsibility arises as a measure of the corporate policy that goes beyond the production activity, thus covering also the social and environmental activities. This issue has been gaining importance over time. The number of companies that are implementing socially responsible actions has been growing steadily even though it is still centered on large and medium sized companies. Social responsibility is an accessible theme to any company of any size, once the social and environmental issues are resolved through concrete actions, but in the small and micro-sized companies there are factors that inhibit such actions. Some of these factors are: reduced investment capacity; minimal expectations of medium to long term returns; or even the short-term management focus that is aimed at survival. Such facts can be verified in the case of Portuguese companies, where out of the 41 companies certified by SA 8000 only 5 are micro-sized or small and even these are linked to large organizations.

Expatriates recruitment and selection for long-term international assignments in portuguese companies

Long-term international assignments’ increase requires more attention being paid for the preparation of these foreign assignments, especially on the recruitment and selection process of expatriates. This article explores how the recruitment and selection process of expatriates is developed in Portuguese companies, examining the main criteria on recruitment and selection of expatriates’ decision to send international assignments. The paper is based on qualitative case studies of companies located in Portugal. The data were collected through semi-structured interviews of 42 expatriates and 18 organisational representatives as well from nine Portuguese companies. The findings show that the most important criteria are: (1) trust from managers, (2) years in service, (3) previous technical and language competences, (4) organisational knowledge and, (5) availability. Based on the findings, the article discusses in detail the main theoretical and managerial implications. Suggestions for further research are also presented.