ANN based day-ahead spinning reserve forecast for electricity market simulation

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment require adequate decision support tools, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. This paper deals with short-term predication of day-ahead spinning reserve (SR) requirement that helps the ISO to make effective and timely decisions. Based on these forecasted information, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead SR market. The proposed concepts and methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

Ancillary service market simulation

Power systems operation in a liberalized environment requires that market players have access to adequate decision support tool, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. For this, decision support tools must include ancillary market simulation. This paper deals with ancillary services negotiation in electricity markets. The proposed concepts and methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A test case concerning the dispatch of ancillary services using two different methods (Linear Programming and Genetic Algorithm approaches) is included in the paper.

Distributed energy resources management with cyber-physical SCADA in the context of future smart grids

In the energy management of a small power system, the scheduling of the generation units is a crucial problem for which adequate methodologies can maximize the performance of the energy supply. This paper proposes an innovative methodology for distributed energy resources management. The optimal operation of distributed generation, demand response and storage resources is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model (MILP) and solved by a deterministic optimization technique CPLEX-based implemented in General Algebraic Modeling Systems (GAMS). The paper deals with a vision for the grids of the future, focusing on conceptual and operational aspects of electrical grids characterized by an intensive penetration of DG, in the scope of competitive environments and using artificial intelligence methodologies to attain the envisaged goals. These concepts are implemented in a computational framework which includes both grid and market simulation.

ANN based day-ahead ancillary services forecast for electricity market simulation

Adequate decision support tools are required by electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services (AS) represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. Based on the ancillary services forecasting, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead ancillary services markets. For this reason, ancillary services market simulation is being included in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator that can be used by market players to test and enhance their bidding strategies. The paper presents the methodology used to undertake ancillary services forecasting, based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach. ANNs are used to day-ahead prediction of non-spinning reserve (NS), regulation-up (RU), and regulation down (RD). Spinning reserve (SR) is mentioned as past work for comparative analysis. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

Ancillary services market clearing simulation: a comparison between deterministic and heuristic methods

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment requires access to an adequate decision support tool, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. For this, decision support tool must include ancillary market simulation. This paper proposes two different methods (Linear Programming and Genetic Algorithm approaches) for ancillary services dispatch. The methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A test case based on California Independent System Operator (CAISO) data concerning the dispatch of Regulation Down, Regulation Up, Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve services is included in this paper.

Modelling group decision simulation through argumentation

Group decision making plays an important role in today’s organisations. The impact of decision making is so high and complex, that rarely the decision making process is made individually. In Group Decision Argumentation, there is a set of participants, with different profiles and expertise levels, that exchange ideas or engage in a process of argumentation and counter-argumentation, negotiate, cooperate, collaborate or even discuss techniques and/or methodologies for problem solving. In this paper, it is proposed a Multi-Agent simulator for the behaviour representation of group members in a decision making process. Agents behave depending on rational and emotional intelligence and use persuasive argumentation to convince and make alternative choices.

QoS em WIMAX – Análise e avaliação de módulos para simulação com o ns-2

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: a framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. A critical issue regarding these specific characteristics concerns the constant changes they are subject to. This is a result of the electricity markets’ restructuring, which was performed so that the competitiveness could be increased, but it also had exponential implications in the increase of the complexity and unpredictability in those markets scope. The constant growth in markets unpredictability resulted in an amplified need for market intervenient entities in foreseeing market behaviour. The need for understanding the market mechanisms and how the involved players’ interaction affects the outcomes of the markets, contributed to the growth of usage of simulation tools. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyze dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. This dissertation presents ALBidS – Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System, a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. This system is integrated with the MASCEM electricity market simulator, so that its advantage in supporting a market player can be tested using cases based on real markets’ data. ALBidS considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches, to provide alternative suggestions of which are the best actions for the supported player to perform. The approach chosen as the players’ actual action is selected by the employment of reinforcement learning algorithms, which for each different situation, simulation circumstances and context, decides which proposed action is the one with higher possibility of achieving the most success. Some of the considered approaches are supported by a mechanism that creates profiles of competitor players. These profiles are built accordingly to their observed past actions and reactions when faced with specific situations, such as success and failure. The system’s context awareness and simulation circumstances analysis, both in terms of results performance and execution time adaptation, are complementary mechanisms, which endow ALBidS with further adaptation and learning capabilities.

Simulation and life cycle assessment of process design alternatives for biodiesel production from waste vegetable oils

This study uses the process simulator ASPEN Plus and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to compare three process design alternatives for biodiesel production from waste vegetable oils that are: the conventional alkali-catalyzed process including a free fatty acids (FFAs) pre-treatment, the acid-catalyzed process, and the supercritical methanol process using propane as co-solvent. Results show that the supercritical methanol process using propane as co-solvent is the most environmentally favorable alternative. Its smaller steam consumption in comparison with the other process design alternatives leads to a lower contribution to the potential environmental impacts (PEI’s). The acid-catalyzed process generally shows the highest PEI’s, in particular due to the high energy requirements associated with methanol recovery operations.

Six thinking hats for electricity markets simulation: adapting meeting tools to agent decision

In almost all industrialized countries, the energy sector has suffered a severe restructuring that originated a greater complexity in market players’ interactions. The complexity that these changes brought made way for the creation of decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets. MASCEM – “Multiagent Simulator for Competitive Electricity Markets” arose in this context providing a framework for evaluating new rules, new behaviour, and new participants in deregulated electricity markets. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimisation techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. ALBidS is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM it considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches. The Six Thinking Hats is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives. This tool’s goal is to force the thinker to move outside his habitual thinking style. It was developed to be used mainly at meetings in order to “run better meetings, make faster decisions”. This dissertation presents a study about the applicability of the Six Thinking Hats technique in Decision Support Systems, particularly with the multiagent paradigm like the MASCEM simulator. As such this work’s proposal is of a new agent, a meta-learner based on STH technique that organizes several different ALBidS’ strategies and combines the distinct answers into a single one that, expectedly, out-performs any of them.

Online robust optimization framework for QoS guarantees in distributed soft real-time systems

In distributed soft real-time systems, maximizing the aggregate quality-of-service (QoS) is a typical system-wide goal, and addressing the problem through distributed optimization is challenging. Subtasks are subject to unpredictable failures in many practical environments, and this makes the problem much harder. In this paper, we present a robust optimization framework for maximizing the aggregate QoS in the presence of random failures. We introduce the notion of K-failure to bound the effect of random failures on schedulability. Using this notion we define the concept of K-robustness that quantifies the degree of robustness on QoS guarantee in a probabilistic sense. The parameter K helps to tradeoff achievable QoS versus robustness. The proposed robust framework produces optimal solutions through distributed computations on the basis of Lagrangian duality, and we present some implementation techniques. Our simulation results show that the proposed framework can probabilistically guarantee sub-optimal QoS which remains feasible even in the presence of random failures.

Tools for simulation output analysis

This technical report presents a description of the output data files and the tools used to validate and to extract information from the output data files generated by the Repeater-Based Hybrid Wired/Wireless Network Simulator and the Bridge-Based Hybrid Wired/Wireless Network Simulator.

Repeater-based hybrid wired/wireless PROFIBUS network simulator

This technical report describes the Repeater-Based Hybrid Wired/Wireless PROFIBUS Network Simulator that implements a simulation model of the repeater-based approach. This approach defines the mechanism to extend the PROFIBUS protocol to supprot wireless communication, in which the interconnection of the wired and wireless segments is done by a intermediate system operating at Physical Layer, as repeater.

Mobility simulator

This technical report describes the Mobility Simulator that implements a simulation model of the station mobility and the radio wave propagation.

Analysis of the domain of applicability of an algorithm for a resources system selection problem for Distributed/Agile/Virtual Enterprises integration

The process of resources systems selection takes an important part in Distributed/Agile/Virtual Enterprises (D/A/V Es) integration. However, the resources systems selection is still a difficult matter to solve in a D/A/VE, as it is pointed out in this paper. Globally, we can say that the selection problem has been equated from different aspects, originating different kinds of models/algorithms to solve it. In order to assist the development of a web prototype tool (broker tool), intelligent and flexible, that integrates all the selection model activities and tools, and with the capacity to adequate to each D/A/V E project or instance (this is the major goal of our final project), we intend in this paper to show: a formulation of a kind of resources selection problem and the limitations of the algorithms proposed to solve it. We formulate a particular case of the problem as an integer programming, which is solved using simplex and branch and bound algorithms, and identify their performance limitations (in terms of processing time) based on simulation results. These limitations depend on the number of processing tasks and on the number of pre-selected resources per processing tasks, defining the domain of applicability of the algorithms for the problem studied. The limitations detected open the necessity of the application of other kind of algorithms (approximate solution algorithms) outside the domain of applicability founded for the algorithms simulated. However, for a broker tool it is very important the knowledge of algorithms limitations, in order to, based on problem features, develop and select the most suitable algorithm that guarantees a good performance.