Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Load Profiling

Load forecasting has gradually becoming a major field of research in electricity industry. Therefore, Load forecasting is extremely important for the electric sector under deregulated environment as it provides a useful support to the power system management. Accurate power load forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of a utility company, and they have received increasing attention from researches of this field study. Many mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. This work aims to develop and implement a load forecasting method for short-term load forecasting (STLF), based on Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and an artificial neural network (ANN). One of the main contributions of this paper is the application of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approach to the forecasting problem and, as an evaluation of the past forecasting work, data mining techniques are also applied to short-term Load forecasting. Both ANN and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approaches are compared and evaluated.

Multiagent System Architecture for Short-term Operation of Integrated Microgrids

The forthcoming smart grids are comprised of integrated microgrids operating in grid-connected and isolated mode with local generation, storage and demand response (DR) programs. The proposed model is based on three successive complementary steps for power transaction in the market environment. The first step is characterized as a microgrid’s internal market; the second concerns negotiations between distinct interconnected microgrids; and finally, the third refers to the actual electricity market. The proposed approach is modeled and tested using a MAS framework directed to the study of the smart grids environment, including the simulation of electricity markets. This is achieved through the integration of the proposed approach with the MASGriP (Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform) system.

Using Typical Consumption Profiles to Stablish the Consumption Level for Short Time Periods

The current practices in the consumption metering by electricity utilities is currently largely based on monthly consumption reading. The consumption metering device is always calculating the cumulative consumption. Then, it is possible to calculate the difference between the actual and the previous consumption evaluation in order to estimate the monthly consumption. The power systems planning needs in many aspects to handle consumption data obtained for shorter periods, namely in the Demand Response programs planning. The work presented in this paper is based on the application of typical consumption profiles that are previously defined for a certain power system area. Such profiles are then used in order to estimate the 15 minutes consumption for a certain consumer or consumer type.

Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting using Support Vector Machines

Wind speed forecasting has been becoming an important field of research to support the electricity industry mainly due to the increasing use of distributed energy sources, largely based on renewable sources. This type of electricity generation is highly dependent on the weather conditions variability, particularly the variability of the wind speed. Therefore, accurate wind power forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of wind plants and power systems. A Support Vector Machines (SVM) model for short-term wind speed is proposed and its performance is evaluated and compared with several artificial neural network (ANN) based approaches. A case study based on a real database regarding 3 years for predicting wind speed at 5 minutes intervals is presented.

A proximidade de ecopontos e o comportamento ambiental

Dissertação de Mestrado em Gestão Integrada da Qualidade Ambiente e Segurança

Modelos de previsão de produção para centrais mini-hídricas

O constante crescimento dos produtores em regime especial aliado à descentralização dos pontos injetores na rede, tem permitido uma redução da importação de energia mas também tem acarretado maiores problemas para a gestão da rede. Estes problemas estão relacionados com o facto da produção estar dependente das condições climatéricas, como é o caso dos produtores eólicos, hídricos e solares. A previsão da energia produzida em função da previsão das condições climatéricas tem sido alvo de atenção por parte da comunidade empresarial do setor, pelo facto de existir modelos razoáveis para a previsão das condições climatéricas a curto prazo, e até a longo prazo. Este trabalho trata, em concreto, do problema da previsão de produção em centrais mini-hídricas, apresentando duas propostas para essa previsão. Em ambas as propostas efetua-se inicialmente a previsão do caudal que chega à central, sendo esta depois convertida em potência que é injetada na rede. Para a previsão do caudal utilizaram-se dois métodos estatísticos: o método Holt-Winters e os modelos ARMAX. Os dois modelos de previsão propostos consideram um horizonte temporal de uma semana, com discretização horária, para uma central no norte de Portugal, designadamente a central de Penide. O trabalho também contempla um pequeno estudo da bibliografia existente tanto para a previsão da produção como de afluências de centrais hidroelétricas. Aborda, ainda, conceitos relacionados com as mini-hídricas e apresenta uma caraterização do parque de centrais mini-hídricas em Portugal.

Psychometric Properties of the Portuguese Version of the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory Short Form Among Divorced Adults

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a Portuguese version of the Short Form of the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory (PTGI-SF). Using an online convenience sample of Portuguese divorced adults (N = 482), we confirmed the oblique five-factor structure of the PTGI-SF by confirmatory factor analysis. The results demonstrated the measurement invariance across divorce initiator status groups. Total score and factors of PTGI-SF showed good internal consistency, with the exception of the New Possibilities factor, which revealed an acceptable reliability. The Portuguese PTGI-SF showed a satisfactory convergent validity. In terms of discriminant validity, posttraumatic growth assessed by the Portuguese PTGI-SF was a distinct factor from posttraumatic psychological adjustment. These preliminary findings suggest the cultural adaptation and also psychometric properties of the present Portuguese PTGI-SF to measure posttraumatic growth after personal crisis.

Redes de terras associadas a estações de telecomunicações

As redes de terras são algo que atormenta muitas operadoras de telecomunicações. Quando o comum civil pensa que apenas existem antenas e que é importante a transmissão de dados porque naturalmente não lhes faz falta saber mais nada, as pessoas envolventes na construção de uma estação de telecomunicações têm preocupações não só com a parte de rádio e antenas, mas fundamentalmente com a parte de energia e de infra-estruturas. No desenvolvimento deste projecto, torna-se então importante perceber como as redes de terras são implementadas, como atingir valores satisfatórios para as operadoras, como realizar melhoria da rede de terras já existentes, implementar furos artesianos/valas e sobretudo como melhorar no futuro. Os materiais utilizados e o estudo prévio das condições do terreno onde a estação rádio-base é implementada nem sempre coincidem com os resultados desejados e que pensamos que seriam facilmente atingidos após implementação da torre. Neste projecto, vamos então acompanhar todos os processos, desde a legalização, construção, testes e finalmente a medição da resistência de terras final. Se os valores foram aceitáveis, óptimo para a operadora de telecomunicações e para a empresa responsável pela implementação. Caso os resultados estejam aquém das expectativas, é altura de selecionar os melhores e recorrendo a um conjunto de técnicas que garantam resultados e o menos dispêndio de dinheiro possível, vamos avançar para as melhorias. Os regimes de protecção das pessoas e da estação são bastante importantes. É importante também perceber as condições dos solos e saber simular com o programa ERICO que será fundamental para se efetuar uma comparação entre o teórico e o implementado praticamente. No fim, parte fulcral serão as medições finais, a relação preço-qualidade das melhorias implementadas, a análise dos resultados com argumentos válidos e o bom senso da operadora para aceitar ou rejeitar os trabalhos. Contrato é contrato, fazer mais e melhor é uma exigência constante.

Frailty as a predictor of short-term adverse outcomes

The objectives of this study were to compare how different frailty measures (Frailty Phenotype/FP, Groningen Frailty Indicator/GFI and Tilburg Frailty Indicator/TFI) predict short-term adverse outcomes. Secondarily, adopting a multidimensional approach to frailty (integral conceptual model–TFI), this study aims to compare how physical, psychological and social frailty predict the outcomes. A longitudinal study was carried out with 95 community-dwelling elderly. Participants were assessed at baseline for frailty, determinants of frailty, and adverse outcomes (healthcare utilization, quality of life, disability in basic and instrumental activities of daily living/ADL and IADL). Ten months later the outcomes were assessed again. Frailty was associated with specific healthcare utilization indicators: the FP with a greater utilization of informal care; GFI with an increased contact with healthcare professionals; and TFI with a higher amount of contacts with a general practitioner. After controlling for the effect of life-course determinants, comorbidity and adverse outcome at baseline, GFI predicted IADL disability and TFI predicted quality of life. The effect of the FP on the outcomes was not significant, when compared with the other measures. However, when comparing TFI’s domains, the physical domain was the most significant predictor of the outcomes, even explaining part of the variance of ADL disability. Frailty at baseline was associated with adverse outcomes at follow-up. However, the relationship of each frailty measure (FP, GFI and TFI) with the outcomes was different. In spite of the role of psychological frailty, TFI’s physical domain was the determinant factor for predicting disability and most of the quality of life.

Short sea como alternativa ao transporte terrestre

O Short Sea Shipping (SSS) é um conceito de transporte marítimo de difícil definição. No entanto, considera-se neste trabalho, que corresponde ao movimento de carga e passageiros por mar entre portos situados geográficamente na Europa ou entre outros portos que não estejam situados na Europa, mas que partilham costa com mares que banham a Europa. Esta definição é sem dúvida aquela que melhor se adequa à inclusão do Short SSS como elo de uma cadeia multimodal de transporte de mercadorias no espaço Europeu, e como alternativa ao transporte de mercadorias apenas por estrada. Este trabalho aborda alguns conceitos importantes subjacentes ao transporte marítimo de forma a permitir uma contextualização que possibilite uma melhor compreensão da abordagem feita ao SSS. A sua promoção e implementação, como alternativa viável para o transporte de mercadorias dentro do espaço Europeu, são objetivos da política de transportes da União Europeia (UE). Este trabalho reflete sobre algumas das políticas estratégicas de promoção da UE para impulsionar o SSS como alternativa ao transporte rodoviário. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar se o SSS é uma alternativa ao transporte terrestre, no contexto de uma distribuição no Reino Unido de produtos de uma Industria localizada nos arredores da cidade do Porto. Neste trabalho analisou-se as vantagens e desvantagens do SSS, foi efetuada uma descrição do Porto de Leixões como porto escolhido para as expedições, assim como uma análise descritiva dos serviços de Short Sea disponiveis neste porto para as zonas de distribuição desta empresa. Foram descritos os fatores chave da mudança de transporte terrestre para SSS, efectuada uma caracterização da distribuição desta empresa e da solução que esta adotou para distribuir os seus produtos no Reino Unido. A anállise económica da operação, dos tempos de trânsito são dois temas fundamentais para a viabilidade da solução como alternativa ao transporte terrestre.

CANDi: context-aware node discovery for short-range cooperation

Multi-standard mobile devices are allowing users to enjoy higher data rates with ubiquitous connectivity. However, the benefits gained from multiple interfaces come at an expense—that being higher energy consumption in an era where mobile devices need to be energy compliant. One promising solution is the usage of short-range cooperative communication as an overlay for infrastructure-based networks taking advantage of its context information. However, the node discovery mechanism, which is pivotal to the bearer establishment process, still represents a major burden in terms of the total energy budget. In this paper, we propose a technology agnostic approach towards enhancing the MAC energy ratings by presenting a context-aware node discovery (CANDi) algorithm, which provides a priori knowledge towards the node discovery mechanism by allowing it to search nodes in the near vicinity at the ‘right time and at the right place’. We describe the different beacons required for establishing the cooperation, as well as the context information required, including battery level, modes, location and so on. CANDi uses the long-range network (WiMAX and WiFi) to distribute the context information about cooperative clusters (Ultra-wideband-based) in the vicinity. The searching nodes can use this context in locating the cooperative clusters/nodes, which facilitates the establishing of short-range connections. Analytical and simulation results are obtained, and the energy saving gains are further demonstrated in the laboratory using a customised testbed. CANDi saves up to 50% energy during the node discovery process, while the demonstrative testbed shows up to 75% savings in the total energy budget, thus validating the algorithm, as well as providing viable evidence to support the usage of short-range cooperative communications for energy savings.

Rapid automated method for on-site determination of sulfadiazine in fish farming: a stainless steel veterinary syringe coated with a selective membrane of PVC serving as a potentiometric detector in a flow-injection-analysis system

Sulfadiazine is an antibiotic of the sulfonamide group and is used as a veterinary drug in fish farming. Monitoring it in the tanks is fundamental to control the applied doses and avoid environmental dissemination. Pursuing this goal, we included a novel potentiometric design in a flow-injection assembly. The electrode body was a stainless steel needle veterinary syringe of 0.8-mm inner diameter. A selective membrane of PVC acted as a sensory surface. Its composition, the length of the electrode, and other flow variables were optimized. The best performance was obtained for sensors of 1.5-cm length and a membrane composition of 33% PVC, 66% onitrophenyloctyl ether, 1% ion exchanger, and a small amount of a cationic additive. It exhibited Nernstian slopes of 61.0 mV decade-1 down to 1.0×10-5 mol L-1, with a limit of detection of 3.1×10-6 mol L-1 in flowing media. All necessary pH/ionic strength adjustments were performed online by merging the sample plug with a buffer carrier of 4-(2-hydroxyethyl)-1-piperazineethanesulfonic acid, pH 4.9. The sensor exhibited the advantages of a fast response time (less than 15 s), long operational lifetime (60 days), and good selectivity for chloride, nitrite, acetate, tartrate, citrate, and ascorbate. The flow setup was successfully applied to the analysis of aquaculture waters. The analytical results were validated against those obtained with liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry procedures. The sampling rate was about 84 samples per hour and recoveries ranged from 95.9 to 106.9%.

Using data mining with time series data in short-term stocks prediction

Data Mining (DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM with time series data, focusing on short- time stocks prediction. This is an area that has been attracting a great deal of attention from researchers in the field. The main contribution of this paper is to provide an outline of the use of DM with time series data, using mainly examples related with short-term stocks prediction. This is important to a better understanding of the field. Some of the main trends and open issues will also be introduced.

Short-Circuit Impedance of Power Transformers: the Fractional Order Calculus Approach

First IFAC Workshop on Fractional Differentiation and Its Application - 19-21 July 2004, Enseirb, Bordeaux, France - FDA'04

On the Estimation of the Short-Circuit Impedance of Power Transformers Using Fractional Order Calculus

This paper reports investigation on the estimation of the short circuit impedance of power transformers, using fractional order calculus to analytically study the influence of the diffusion phenomena in the windings. The aim is to better characterize the medium frequency range behavior of leakage inductances of power transformer models, which include terms to represent the magnetic field diffusion process in the windings. Comparisons between calculated and measured values are shown and discussed.