Wind resource modelling in complex terrain using different mesoscale–microscale coupling techniques

Wind resource evaluation in two sites located in Portugal was performed using the mesoscale modelling system Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the wind resource analysis tool commonly used within the wind power industry, the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) microscale model. Wind measurement campaigns were conducted in the selected sites, allowing for a comparison between in situ measurements and simulated wind, in terms of flow characteristics and energy yields estimates. Three different methodologies were tested, aiming to provide an overview of the benefits and limitations of these methodologies for wind resource estimation. In the first methodology the mesoscale model acts like “virtual” wind measuring stations, where wind data was computed by WRF for both sites and inserted directly as input in WAsP. In the second approach, the same procedure was followed but here the terrain influences induced by the mesoscale model low resolution terrain data were removed from the simulated wind data. In the third methodology, the simulated wind data is extracted at the top of the planetary boundary layer height for both sites, aiming to assess if the use of geostrophic winds (which, by definition, are not influenced by the local terrain) can bring any improvement in the models performance. The obtained results for the abovementioned methodologies were compared with those resulting from in situ measurements, in terms of mean wind speed, Weibull probability density function parameters and production estimates, considering the installation of one wind turbine in each site. Results showed that the second tested approach is the one that produces values closest to the measured ones, and fairly acceptable deviations were found using this coupling technique in terms of estimated annual production. However, mesoscale output should not be used directly in wind farm sitting projects, mainly due to the mesoscale model terrain data poor resolution. Instead, the use of mesoscale output in microscale models should be seen as a valid alternative to in situ data mainly for preliminary wind resource assessments, although the application of mesoscale and microscale coupling in areas with complex topography should be done with extreme caution.

Numerical prediction of delamination onset in carbon/epoxy composites drilling

Despite the fact that their physical properties make them an attractive family of materials, composites machining can cause several damage modes such as delamination, fibre pull-out, thermal degradation, and others. Minimization of axial thrust force during drilling reduces the probability of delamination onset, as it has been demonstrated by analytical models based on linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM). A finite element model considering solid elements of the ABAQUS® software library and interface elements including a cohesive damage model was developed in order to simulate thrust forces and delamination onset during drilling. Thrust force results for delamination onset are compared with existing analytical models.

Music and evolutionary computation

This paper presents a brief history of the western music: from its genesis to serialism and the Darmstadt school. Also some mathematical aspects of music are then presented and confronted with music as a form of art. The question is, are these two distinct aspects compatible? Can computers be of real help in automatic composition? The more appealing algorithmic approach is evolutionary computation as it offers creativity potential. Therefore, the Evolutionary Algorithms are then introduced and some results of GAs and GPs application to music generation are analysed.

Bertrand model under incomplete information

We consider a Bertrand duopoly model with unknown costs. The firms' aim is to choose the price of its product according to the well-known concept of Bayesian Nash equilibrium. The chooses are made simultaneously by both firms. In this paper, we suppose that each firm has two different technologies, and uses one of them according to a certain probability distribution. The use of either one or the other technology affects the unitary production cost. We show that this game has exactly one Bayesian Nash equilibrium. We analyse the advantages, for firms and for consumers, of using the technology with highest production cost versus the one with cheapest production cost. We prove that the expected profit of each firm increases with the variance of its production costs. We also show that the expected price of each good increases with both expected production costs, being the effect of the expected production costs of the rival dominated by the effect of the own expected production costs.

Anotação colaborativa de conteúdos utilizando jogos com propósito

Com o crescimento da informação disponível na Web, arquivos pessoais e profissionais, protagonizado tanto pelo aumento da capacidade de armazenamento de dados, como pelo aumento exponencial da capacidade de processamento dos computadores, e do fácil acesso a essa mesma informação, um enorme fluxo de produção e distribuição de conteúdos audiovisuais foi gerado. No entanto, e apesar de existirem mecanismos para a indexação desses conteúdos com o objectivo de permitir a pesquisa e acesso aos mesmos, estes apresentam normalmente uma grande complexidade algorítmica ou exigem a contratação de pessoal altamente qualificado, para a verificação e categorização dos conteúdos. Nesta dissertação pretende-se estudar soluções de anotação colaborativa de conteúdos e desenvolver uma ferramenta que facilite a anotação de um arquivo de conteúdos audiovisuais. A abordagem implementada é baseada no conceito dos “Jogos com Propósito” (GWAP – Game With a Purpose) e permite que os utilizadores criem tags (metadatos na forma de palavras-chave) de forma a atribuir um significado a um objecto a ser categorizado. Assim, e como primeiro objectivo, foi desenvolvido um jogo com o propósito não só de entretenimento, mas também que permita a criação de anotações audiovisuais perante os vídeos que são apresentados ao jogador e, que desta forma, se melhore a indexação e categorização dos mesmos. A aplicação desenvolvida permite ainda a visualização dos conteúdos e metadatos categorizados, e com o objectivo de criação de mais um elemento informativo, permite a inserção de um like num determinado instante de tempo do vídeo. A grande vantagem da aplicação desenvolvida reside no facto de adicionar anotações a pontos específicos do vídeo, mais concretamente aos seus instantes de tempo. Trata-se de uma funcionalidade nova, não disponível em outras aplicações de anotação colaborativa de conteúdos audiovisuais. Com isto, o acesso aos conteúdos será bastante mais eficaz pois será possível aceder, por pesquisa, a pontos específicos no interior de um vídeo.

O perfil do utilizador abusivo dos Serviços de Urgência Portugueses: um estudo no Hospital de São João

A afluência desmedida aos Serviços de Urgência é uma questão que acarreta preocupações a nível financeiro. Contribui para este fato, a mentalidade da população, que acredita que este serviço oferece mais facilidades de acesso, dispõe de mais recursos e fornece melhores cuidados de saúde. Novas medidas foram preconizadas, como o aumento das taxas moderadoras, para tentar travar este fenómeno. No entanto, apesar da descida dos episódios de urgência em cerca de 10%, em Portugal, estudos apontam para valores na ordem dos 30-35% de episódios não urgentes. Assim, torna-se importante que não só se enfatizem as novas medidas, como se eduque a população com vista à correta utilização destes serviços, através de campanhas de sensibilização. Torna-se, assim, necessário que se chegue ao perfil do utilizador abusivo. Para a identificação de um perfil de abusividade, foram solicitados dados de episódios de urgência ocorridos durante um período de 6 meses no Hospital de São João, tendo depois sido estimado um modelo de regressão logística. A metodologia permite identificar quais as características que influenciam uma utilização abusiva do serviço e quantificar o impacto de cada uma destas características na probabilidade de um utente apresentar um comportamento abusivo. Concluiu-se que, uma mulher entre os 18-30 anos, que resida em Vila Nova de Gaia, recorra à urgência durante a noite tendo-lhe sido atribuída uma pulseira azul e seja abrangida pelo Serviço Nacional de Saúde, apresenta 91,92% de probabilidade de utilizar este serviço de forma abusiva. Contrariamente, um homem com mais de 60 anos, residente na Maia, que recorra ao serviço durante o dia, esteja isento do pagamento de taxas moderadoras e seja abrangido pela ADSE, e lhe seja atribuída uma pulseira laranja, apresenta apenas 39,93% de probabilidade de ter um comportamento abusivo. Estes resultados são importantes para definir campanhas de sensibilização que diminuam comportamentos abusivos.

Aplicação de métodos estocásticos na gestão de custos de construção de condutas de saneamento

O trabalho apresentado centra-se na determinação dos custos de construção de condutas de pequenos e médios diâmetros em Polietileno de Alta Densidade (PEAD) para saneamento básico, tendo como base a metodologia descrita no livro Custos de Construção e Exploração – Volume 9 da série Gestão de Sistemas de Saneamento Básico, de Lencastre et al. (1994). Esta metodologia descrita no livro já referenciado, nos procedimentos de gestão de obra, e para tal foram estimados custos unitários de diversos conjuntos de trabalhos. Conforme Lencastre et al (1994), “esses conjuntos são referentes a movimentos de terras, tubagens, acessórios e respetivos órgãos de manobra, pavimentações e estaleiro, estando englobado na parte do estaleiro trabalhos acessórios correspondentes à obra.” Os custos foram obtidos analisando vários orçamentos de obras de saneamento, resultantes de concursos públicos de empreitadas recentemente realizados. Com vista a tornar a utilização desta metodologia numa ferramenta eficaz, foram organizadas folhas de cálculo que possibilitam obter estimativas realistas dos custos de execução de determinada obra em fases anteriores ao desenvolvimento do projeto, designadamente numa fase de preparação do plano diretor de um sistema ou numa fase de elaboração de estudos de viabilidade económico-financeiros, isto é, mesmo antes de existir qualquer pré-dimensionamento dos elementos do sistema. Outra técnica implementada para avaliar os dados de entrada foi a “Análise Robusta de Dados”, Pestana (1992). Esta metodologia permitiu analisar os dados mais detalhadamente antes de se formularem hipóteses para desenvolverem a análise de risco. A ideia principal é o exame bastante flexível dos dados, frequentemente antes mesmo de os comparar a um modelo probabilístico. Assim, e para um largo conjunto de dados, esta técnica possibilitou analisar a disparidade dos valores encontrados para os diversos trabalhos referenciados anteriormente. Com os dados recolhidos, e após o seu tratamento, passou-se à aplicação de uma metodologia de Análise de Risco, através da Simulação de Monte Carlo. Esta análise de risco é feita com recurso a uma ferramenta informática da Palisade, o @Risk, disponível no Departamento de Engenharia Civil. Esta técnica de análise quantitativa de risco permite traduzir a incerteza dos dados de entrada, representada através de distribuições probabilísticas que o software disponibiliza. Assim, para por em prática esta metodologia, recorreu-se às folhas de cálculo que foram realizadas seguindo a abordagem proposta em Lencastre et al (1994). A elaboração e a análise dessas estimativas poderão conduzir à tomada de decisões sobre a viabilidade da ou das obras a realizar, nomeadamente no que diz respeito aos aspetos económicos, permitindo uma análise de decisão fundamentada quanto à realização dos investimentos.

Distributed Generation and Demand Response Dispatch for a Virtual Power Player Energy and Reserve Provision

Recent changes in the operation and planning of power systems have been motivated by the introduction of Distributed Generation (DG) and Demand Response (DR) in the competitive electricity markets' environment, with deep concerns at the efficiency level. In this context, grid operators, market operators, utilities and consumers must adopt strategies and methods to take full advantage of demand response and distributed generation. This requires that all the involved players consider all the market opportunities, as the case of energy and reserve components of electricity markets. The present paper proposes a methodology which considers the joint dispatch of demand response and distributed generation in the context of a distribution network operated by a virtual power player. The resources' participation can be performed in both energy and reserve contexts. This methodology contemplates the probability of actually using the reserve and the distribution network constraints. Its application is illustrated in this paper using a 32-bus distribution network with 66 DG units and 218 consumers classified into 6 types of consumers.

An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis applied to the prioritisation of pharmaceuticals as surface water contaminants from wastewater treatment plant direct emissions

In this study, the concentration probability distributions of 82 pharmaceutical compounds detected in the effluents of 179 European wastewater treatment plants were computed and inserted into a multimedia fate model. The comparative ecotoxicological impact of the direct emission of these compounds from wastewater treatment plants on freshwater ecosystems, based on a potentially affected fraction (PAF) of species approach, was assessed to rank compounds based on priority. As many pharmaceuticals are acids or bases, the multimedia fate model accounts for regressions to estimate pH-dependent fate parameters. An uncertainty analysis was performed by means of Monte Carlo analysis, which included the uncertainty of fate and ecotoxicity model input variables, as well as the spatial variability of landscape characteristics on the European continental scale. Several pharmaceutical compounds were identified as being of greatest concern, including 7 analgesics/anti-inflammatories, 3 β-blockers, 3 psychiatric drugs, and 1 each of 6 other therapeutic classes. The fate and impact modelling relied extensively on estimated data, given that most of these compounds have little or no experimental fate or ecotoxicity data available, as well as a limited reported occurrence in effluents. The contribution of estimated model input variables to the variance of freshwater ecotoxicity impact, as well as the lack of experimental abiotic degradation data for most compounds, helped in establishing priorities for further testing. Generally, the effluent concentration and the ecotoxicity effect factor were the model input variables with the most significant effect on the uncertainty of output results.

Portuguese version of the Tilburg Frailty Indicator: Transcultural adaptation and psychometric validation

Artigo científico disponível actualmente em Early View (Online Version of Record published before inclusion in an issue)

A survey of wireless technologies coexistence in WBAN: analysis and open research issues

Wireless Body Area Network (WBAN) is the most convenient, cost-effective, accurate, and non-invasive technology for e-health monitoring. The performance of WBAN may be disturbed when coexisting with other wireless networks. Accordingly, this paper provides a comprehensive study and in-depth analysis of coexistence issues and interference mitigation solutions in WBAN technologies. A thorough survey of state-of-the art research in WBAN coexistence issues is conducted. The survey classified, discussed, and compared the studies according to the parameters used to analyze the coexistence problem. Solutions suggested by the studies are then classified according to the followed techniques and concomitant shortcomings are identified. Moreover, the coexistence problem in WBAN technologies is mathematically analyzed and formulas are derived for the probability of successful channel access for different wireless technologies with the coexistence of an interfering network. Finally, extensive simulations are conducted using OPNET with several real-life scenarios to evaluate the impact of coexistence interference on different WBAN technologies. In particular, three main WBAN wireless technologies are considered: IEEE 802.15.6, IEEE 802.15.4, and low-power WiFi. The mathematical analysis and the simulation results are discussed and the impact of interfering network on the different wireless technologies is compared and analyzed. The results show that an interfering network (e.g., standard WiFi) has an impact on the performance of WBAN and may disrupt its operation. In addition, using low-power WiFi for WBANs is investigated and proved to be a feasible option compared to other wireless technologies.

Gestão do risco de crédito e rentabilidade dos bancos: o caso português

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação do Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira.

Predicting Xerostomia induced by IMRT treatments: A logistic regression approach

Radiotherapy is one of the main treatments used against cancer. Radiotherapy uses radiation to destroy cancerous cells trying, at the same time, to minimize the damages in healthy tissues. The planning of a radiotherapy treatment is patient dependent, resulting in a lengthy trial and error procedure until a treatment complying as most as possible with the medical prescription is found. Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) is one technique of radiation treatment that allows the achievement of a high degree of conformity between the area to be treated and the dose absorbed by healthy tissues. Nevertheless, it is still not possible to eliminate completely the potential treatments’ side-effects. In this retrospective study we use the clinical data from patients with head-and-neck cancer treated at the Portuguese Institute of Oncology of Coimbra and explore the possibility of classifying new and untreated patients according to the probability of xerostomia 12 months after the beginning of IMRT treatments by using a logistic regression approach. The results obtained show that the classifier presents a high discriminative ability in predicting the binary response “at risk for xerostomia at 12 months”

Fractional Order Generalized Information

This paper formulates a novel expression for entropy inspired in the properties of Fractional Calculus. The characteristics of the generalized fractional entropy are tested both in standard probability distributions and real world data series. The results reveal that tuning the fractional order allow an high sensitivity to the signal evolution, which is useful in describing the dynamics of complex systems. The concepts are also extended to relative distances and tested with several sets of data, confirming the goodness of the generalization.

Rhapsody in fractional

This paper studies several topics related with the concept of “fractional” that are not directly related with Fractional Calculus, but can help the reader in pursuit new research directions. We introduce the concept of non-integer positional number systems, fractional sums, fractional powers of a square matrix, tolerant computing and FracSets, negative probabilities, fractional delay discrete-time linear systems, and fractional Fourier transform.