MASCEM - an electricity market simulator providing coalition support for virtual power players

This paper presents MASCEM - a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimization techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. This paper mainly focus on the MASCEM ability to provide the means to model and simulate Virtual Power Players (VPP). VPPs are represented as a coalition of agents, with specific characteristics and goals. The paper details some of the most important aspects considered in VPP formation and in the aggregation of new producers and includes a case study based on real data.

Dgenco market balancing - cost repartition under light regulation markets

In this paper we present a new methodology, based in game theory, to obtain the market balancing between Distribution Generation Companies (DGENCO), in liberalized electricity markets. The new contribution of this methodology is the verification of the participation rate of each agent based in Nucléolo Balancing and in Shapley Value. To validate the results we use the Zaragoza Distribution Network with 42 Bus and 5 DGENCO.

ANN based day-ahead spinning reserve forecast for electricity market simulation

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment require adequate decision support tools, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. This paper deals with short-term predication of day-ahead spinning reserve (SR) requirement that helps the ISO to make effective and timely decisions. Based on these forecasted information, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead SR market. The proposed concepts and methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

Ancillary service market simulation

Power systems operation in a liberalized environment requires that market players have access to adequate decision support tool, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. For this, decision support tools must include ancillary market simulation. This paper deals with ancillary services negotiation in electricity markets. The proposed concepts and methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A test case concerning the dispatch of ancillary services using two different methods (Linear Programming and Genetic Algorithm approaches) is included in the paper.

Auction of financial transmission rights in electricity market environment

An auction model is used to increase the individual profits for market players with products they do not use. A Financial Transmission Rights Auction has the goal of trade transmission rights between Bidders and helps them raise their own profits. The ISO plays a major rule on keep the system in technical limits without interfere on the auctions offers. In some auction models the ISO decide want bids are implemented on the network, always with the objective maximize the individual profits for all bidders in the auction. This paper proposes a methodology for a Financial Transmission Rights Auction and an informatics application. The application receives offers from the purchase and sale side and considers bilateral contracts as Base Case. This goal is maximize the individual profits within the system in their technical limits. The paper includes a case study for the 30 bus IEEE test case.

ANN based day-ahead ancillary services forecast for electricity market simulation

Adequate decision support tools are required by electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services (AS) represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. Based on the ancillary services forecasting, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead ancillary services markets. For this reason, ancillary services market simulation is being included in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator that can be used by market players to test and enhance their bidding strategies. The paper presents the methodology used to undertake ancillary services forecasting, based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach. ANNs are used to day-ahead prediction of non-spinning reserve (NS), regulation-up (RU), and regulation down (RD). Spinning reserve (SR) is mentioned as past work for comparative analysis. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

Ancillary services market clearing simulation: a comparison between deterministic and heuristic methods

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment requires access to an adequate decision support tool, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. For this, decision support tool must include ancillary market simulation. This paper proposes two different methods (Linear Programming and Genetic Algorithm approaches) for ancillary services dispatch. The methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A test case based on California Independent System Operator (CAISO) data concerning the dispatch of Regulation Down, Regulation Up, Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve services is included in this paper.

Residential property loans and performance during property price booms: evidence from European

Understanding the performance of banks is of the u tmost importance due to the impact the sector may have on economic growth and financial stability. Residential mortgage loans constitute a large proportion of the portfolio of many banks and are one of the key assets in the determination of performance. Using a dynamic panel model , we analyse the impact of res idential mortgage loans on bank profitability and risk , based on a sample of 555 banks in the European Union ( EU - 15 ) , over the period from 1995 to 2008. We find that banks with larger weight s in residential mortgage loans display lower credit risk in good market conditions . This result may explain why banks rush to lend on property during b ooms due to the positive effect it has on credit risk . The results also show that credit risk and profitability are lower during the upturn in the residential property cy cle. Furthermore, t he results reveal the existence of a non - linear relationship ( U - shaped marginal effect), as a function of bank’s risk, between profitability and residential mortgage exposure . For those banks that have high er credit risk, a large exposur e to residential loans is associated with increased risk - adjusted profitability, through a reduction in risk. For banks with a moderate to low credit risk, the impact of higher exposure are also positive on risk - adjusted profitability.

Market impact of international sporting and cultural events

We study market reaction to the announcements of the selected country hosting the Summer and Winter Olympic Games, the World Football Cup, the European Football Cup and World and Specialized Exhibitions. We generalize previous results analyzing a large number and different types of mega-events, evaluate the effects for winning and losing countries, investigate the determinants of the observed market reaction and control for the ex ante probability of a country being a successful bidder. Average abnormal returns measured at the announcement date and around the event are not significantly different from zero. Further, we find no evidence supporting that industries, that a priori were more likely to extract direct benefits from the event, observe positive significant effects. Yet, when we control for anticipation, the stock price reactions around the announcements are significant.

O Contributo da auditoria interna para uma gestão eficaz

Com a globalização da economia e o crescimento dos mercados financeiros, surge cada vez mais a necessidade de obter informação útil e atempada, que permita aos gestores das organizações tomar as melhores decisões para a consecução dos objectivos e para o desenvolvimento de estratégias. É neste contexto que a auditoria interna assume um papel relevante, indo ao encontro dos interesses dos gestores, na medida em que audita não só os procedimentos relativos ao reporte financeiro, como também todos os outros procedimentos de controlo interno, contribuindo assim para um controlo mais amplo e completo em toda a organização. O presente trabalho tem como objectivo verificar até que ponto a auditoria interna contribui para uma gestão eficaz das organizações. Para tal, realizaram-se pesquisas sobre os principais conceitos, funções e procedimentos relacionados com auditoria interna e a sua relação com a gestão das organizações. Seguidamente, procedeu-se à explicação da metodologia praticada e à exposição do caso empírico, que teve como base a elaboração de dois questionários basicamente semelhantes, que foram enviados às 200 empresas que apresentaram maior Volume de Negócios, retiradas do universo das “1000 MAIORES EMPRESAS” a actuarem no mercado português durante o ano de 2010. Esses questionários tiveram como objectivo cruzar as opiniões de gestores e auditores, a fim de concluir se existe ou não um contributo da auditoria interna para uma gestão eficaz. Na posse da informação recolhida foi possível ressaltar o contributo da auditoria interna como ferramenta indispensável para uma gestão eficaz, no sentido que procura adequar os custos, aumentar a produtividade, auxiliar no processo de gestão dos riscos e no processo de tomada de decisão, de modo a tornar as organizações mais competitivas e garantindo-lhes um crescimento sustentado.

Corporate brand identity in higher education: a relational perspective

Identity is traditionally defined as an emission concept (Kapferer, 2008). Yet, some research points out that there are external factors that that can influence it (Kennedy, 1975; Markwick e Fill, 1997; Balmer e Gray, 2000). This subject is even more interesting if one considers corporate brands. According to Aaker (2004) the number, the power and the credibility of corporate associations are bigger in the case corporate brands. Literature recognizes the influence of relationships between companies in identity management (Hakansson and Snehota, 1989, 1995; Hakansson and Ford, 2002). Yet, given the increasingly important role of corporate brands, it is surprising that to date no attempt to evaluate that influence has been made in corporate brand´s identity management and reputation. Also Keller and Lehman (2006) highlight relationships and costumer experience as two areas requiring more investigation. The authors argue that corporate brand´s identity can be developed under a relational perspective using relationships with other recognised brands in order to generate positive reputations in stakeholders. Based in relationship and corporate brand identity management, a framework is developed to identify how corporate brands select, develop and invest in relationships with other brands. The context of the proposed relationship concept is the services area (Dwyer et al, 1987; Moorman et al, 1992; Rauyruen et al, 2005 and Hennig-Thurau and Klee, 1997). An empirical qualitative research is designed using two reputational technological higher education institutions (two corporate brands) acting in Portuguese public higher education market.

Estratégias de oferta em leilões simétricos no âmbito dos mercados liberalizados de electricidade

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica – Sistemas Eléctricos de Energia

Técnicas de rating em contexto de crise no setor bancário português

Dissertação para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira

Relationship of milk intake and physical activity to abdominal obesity among adolescents

Background: Diet and physical activity (PA) are recognized as important factors to prevent abdominal obesity (AO), which is strongly associated with chronic diseases. Some studies have reported an inverse association between milk consumption and AO. Objective: This study examined the association between milk intake, PA and AO in adolescents. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 1209 adolescents, aged 15–18 from the Azorean Archipelago, Portugal in 2008. AO was defined by a waist circumference at or above the 90th percentile. Adolescent food intake was measured using a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire, and milk intake was categorized as ‘low milk intake’ (<2 servings per day) or ‘high milk intake’ ( 2 servings per day). PA was assessed via a self-report questionnaire, and participants were divided into active (>10 points) and low-active groups ( 10 points) on the basis of their reported PA. They were then divided into four smaller groups, according to milk intake and PA: (i) low milk intake/low active; (ii) low milk intake/active; (iii) high milk intake/low active and (iv) high milk intake/active. The association between milk intake, PA and AO was evaluated using logistic regression analysis, and the results were adjusted for demographic, body mass index, pubertal stage and dietary confounders. Results: In this study, the majority of adolescents consumed semi-skimmed or skimmed milk (92.3%). The group of adolescents with high level of milk intake and active had a lower proportion of AO than did other groups (low milk intake/low active: 34.2%; low milk intake/active: 26.9%; high milk intake/low active: 25.7%; high milk intake/active: 21.9%, P = 0.008). After adjusting for confounders, low-active and active adolescents with high levels of milk intake were less likely to have AO, compared with low-active adolescents with low milk intake (high milk intake/low active, odds ratio [OR] = 0.412, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.201– 0.845; high milk intake/active adolescents, OR = 0.445, 95% CI: 0.235–0.845).Conclusion: High milk intake seems to have a protective effect on AO, regardless of PA level

Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market

In the proposed model, the independent system operator (ISO) provides the opportunity for maintenance outage rescheduling of generating units before each short-term (ST) time interval. Long-term (LT) scheduling for 1 or 2 years in advance is essential for the ISO and the generation companies (GENCOs) to decide their LT strategies; however, it is not possible to be exactly followed and requires slight adjustments. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium is used to characterize the decision-making procedure of an individual GENCO for ST intervals considering the effective coordination with LT plans. Random inputs, such as parameters of the demand function of loads, hourly demand during the following ST time interval and the expected generation pattern of the rivals, are included as scenarios in the stochastic mixed integer program defined to model the payoff-maximizing objective of a GENCO. Scenario reduction algorithms are used to deal with the computational burden. Two reliability test systems were chosen to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model for the ST decision-making process for future planned outages from the point of view of a GENCO.