Power Law Behavior and Self-similarity in Modern Industrial Accidents

Advances in technology have produced more and more intricate industrial systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical centers and petroleum platforms. Such complex plants exhibit multiple interactions among smaller units and human operators, rising potentially disastrous failure, which can propagate across subsystem boundaries. This paper analyzes industrial accident data-series in the perspective of statistical physics and dynamical systems. Global data is collected from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the time period from year 1903 up to 2012. The statistical distributions of the number of fatalities caused by industrial accidents reveal Power Law (PL) behavior. We analyze the evolution of the PL parameters over time and observe a remarkable increment in the PL exponent during the last years. PL behavior allows prediction by extrapolation over a wide range of scales. In a complementary line of thought, we compare the data using appropriate indices and use different visualization techniques to correlate and to extract relationships among industrial accident events. This study contributes to better understand the complexity of modern industrial accidents and their ruling principles.

Integer and Fractional Order Entropy Analysis of Earthquake Data-series

This paper studies the statistical distributions of worldwide earthquakes from year 1963 up to year 2012. A Cartesian grid, dividing Earth into geographic regions, is considered. Entropy and the Jensen–Shannon divergence are used to analyze and compare real-world data. Hierarchical clustering and multi-dimensional scaling techniques are adopted for data visualization. Entropy-based indices have the advantage of leading to a single parameter expressing the relationships between the seismic data. Classical and generalized (fractional) entropy and Jensen–Shannon divergence are tested. The generalized measures lead to a clear identification of patterns embedded in the data and contribute to better understand earthquake distributions.

Adaptive Penalty and Barrier function based on Fuzzy Logic

Optimization methods have been used in many areas of knowledge, such as Engineering, Statistics, Chemistry, among others, to solve optimization problems. In many cases it is not possible to use derivative methods, due to the characteristics of the problem to be solved and/or its constraints, for example if the involved functions are non-smooth and/or their derivatives are not know. To solve this type of problems a Java based API has been implemented, which includes only derivative-free optimization methods, and that can be used to solve both constrained and unconstrained problems. For solving constrained problems, the classic Penalty and Barrier functions were included in the API. In this paper a new approach to Penalty and Barrier functions, based on Fuzzy Logic, is proposed. Two penalty functions, that impose a progressive penalization to solutions that violate the constraints, are discussed. The implemented functions impose a low penalization when the violation of the constraints is low and a heavy penalty when the violation is high. Numerical results, obtained using twenty-eight test problems, comparing the proposed Fuzzy Logic based functions to six of the classic Penalty and Barrier functions are presented. Considering the achieved results, it can be concluded that the proposed penalty functions besides being very robust also have a very good performance.

Dynamical behaviour of multi-particle large-scale systems

Collective behaviours can be observed in both natural and man-made systems composed of a large number of elemental subsystems. Typically, each elemental subsystem has its own dynamics but, whenever interaction between individuals occurs, the individual behaviours tend to be relaxed, and collective behaviours emerge. In this paper, the collective behaviour of a large-scale system composed of several coupled elemental particles is analysed. The dynamics of the particles are governed by the same type of equations but having different parameter values and initial conditions. Coupling between particles is based on statistical feedback, which means that each particle is affected by the average behaviour of its neighbours. It is shown that the global system may unveil several types of collective behaviours, corresponding to partial synchronisation, characterised by the existence of several clusters of synchronised subsystems, and global synchronisation between particles, where all the elemental particles synchronise completely.