Do the most productive firms become exporters? Application of a test for the case of Portugal

Using a longitudinal database (1996-2003) at the plant level, this article aims to shed light on the proposition that most productive domestic firms self-select to export markets. Self-selection and learning by exporting are two non-mutually-exclusive theses that attempt to explain the high correlation between firms’ international trade involvement and their superior performance relative to domestic firms. In general, we find evidence of a self-selection to exports. However, there is significant heterogeneity of sales destinations, firm import status before exporting,and the specificities of the sectors firms belong to.

A few what-ifs on using statistical analysis of stochastic simulation runs to extract timeliness properties

Modern real-time systems, with a more flexible and adaptive nature, demand approaches for timeliness evaluation based on probabilistic measures of meeting deadlines. In this context, simulation can emerge as an adequate solution to understand and analyze the timing behaviour of actual systems. However, care must be taken with the obtained outputs under the penalty of obtaining results with lack of credibility. Particularly important is to consider that we are more interested in values from the tail of a probability distribution (near worst-case probabilities), instead of deriving confidence on mean values. We approach this subject by considering the random nature of simulation output data. We will start by discussing well known approaches for estimating distributions out of simulation output, and the confidence which can be applied to its mean values. This is the basis for a discussion on the applicability of such approaches to derive confidence on the tail of distributions, where the worst-case is expected to be.

From simulation to statistical analysis: timeliness assessment of ethernet/IP-based distributed systems

A number of characteristics are boosting the eagerness of extending Ethernet to also cover factory-floor distributed real-time applications. Full-duplex links, non-blocking and priority-based switching, bandwidth availability, just to mention a few, are characteristics upon which that eagerness is building up. But, will Ethernet technologies really manage to replace traditional Fieldbus networks? Ethernet technology, by itself, does not include features above the lower layers of the OSI communication model. In the past few years, it is particularly significant the considerable amount of work that has been devoted to the timing analysis of Ethernet-based technologies. It happens, however, that the majority of those works are restricted to the analysis of sub-sets of the overall computing and communication system, thus without addressing timeliness at a holistic level. To this end, we are addressing a few inter-linked research topics with the purpose of setting a framework for the development of tools suitable to extract temporal properties of Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Ethernet-based factory-floor distributed systems. This framework is being applied to a specific COTS technology, Ethernet/IP. In this paper, we reason about the modelling and simulation of Ethernet/IP-based systems, and on the use of statistical analysis techniques to provide usable results. Discrete event simulation models of a distributed system can be a powerful tool for the timeliness evaluation of the overall system, but particular care must be taken with the results provided by traditional statistical analysis techniques.

Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar, ainda permanecem questões científicas empíricas sobre a identificação do modelo geral teórico de mercado mais adequado para modelar a difusão das séries. Em quarto lugar, aos reguladores e gestores de risco importa saber se existem mercados persistentes e, por isso, ineficientes, que, portanto, possam produzir retornos anormais. O objetivo do trabalho de investigação da dissertação é duplo. Por um lado, pretende proporcionar conhecimento adicional para o debate da memória de longo prazo, debruçando-se sobre o comportamento das séries diárias de retornos dos principais índices acionistas da EURONEXT. Por outro lado, pretende contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model CAPM, considerando uma medida de risco alternativa capaz de ultrapassar os constrangimentos da hipótese de mercado eficiente EMH na presença de séries financeiras com processos sem incrementos independentes e identicamente distribuídos (i.i.d.). O estudo empírico indica a possibilidade de utilização alternativa das obrigações do tesouro (OT’s) com maturidade de longo prazo no cálculo dos retornos do mercado, dado que o seu comportamento nos mercados de dívida soberana reflete a confiança dos investidores nas condições financeiras dos Estados e mede a forma como avaliam as respetiva economias com base no desempenho da generalidade dos seus ativos. Embora o modelo de difusão de preços definido pelo movimento Browniano geométrico gBm alegue proporcionar um bom ajustamento das séries temporais financeiras, os seus pressupostos de normalidade, estacionariedade e independência das inovações residuais são adulterados pelos dados empíricos analisados. Por isso, na procura de evidências sobre a propriedade de memória longa nos mercados recorre-se à rescaled-range analysis R/S e à detrended fluctuation analysis DFA, sob abordagem do movimento Browniano fracionário fBm, para estimar o expoente Hurst H em relação às séries de dados completas e para calcular o expoente Hurst “local” H t em janelas móveis. Complementarmente, são realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses através do rescaled-range tests R/S , do modified rescaled-range test M - R/S e do fractional differencing test GPH. Em termos de uma conclusão única a partir de todos os métodos sobre a natureza da dependência para o mercado acionista em geral, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos. Isso quer dizer que o grau de memória de longo prazo e, assim, qualquer classificação, depende de cada mercado particular. No entanto, os resultados gerais maioritariamente positivos suportam a presença de memória longa, sob a forma de persistência, nos retornos acionistas da Bélgica, Holanda e Portugal. Isto sugere que estes mercados estão mais sujeitos a maior previsibilidade (“efeito José”), mas também a tendências que podem ser inesperadamente interrompidas por descontinuidades (“efeito Noé”), e, por isso, tendem a ser mais arriscados para negociar. Apesar da evidência de dinâmica fractal ter suporte estatístico fraco, em sintonia com a maior parte dos estudos internacionais, refuta a hipótese de passeio aleatório com incrementos i.i.d., que é a base da EMH na sua forma fraca. Atendendo a isso, propõem-se contributos para aperfeiçoamento do CAPM, através da proposta de uma nova fractal capital market line FCML e de uma nova fractal security market line FSML. A nova proposta sugere que o elemento de risco (para o mercado e para um ativo) seja dado pelo expoente H de Hurst para desfasamentos de longo prazo dos retornos acionistas. O expoente H mede o grau de memória de longo prazo nos índices acionistas, quer quando as séries de retornos seguem um processo i.i.d. não correlacionado, descrito pelo gBm(em que H = 0,5 , confirmando- se a EMH e adequando-se o CAPM), quer quando seguem um processo com dependência estatística, descrito pelo fBm(em que H é diferente de 0,5, rejeitando-se a EMH e desadequando-se o CAPM). A vantagem da FCML e da FSML é que a medida de memória de longo prazo, definida por H, é a referência adequada para traduzir o risco em modelos que possam ser aplicados a séries de dados que sigam processos i.i.d. e processos com dependência não linear. Então, estas formulações contemplam a EMH como um caso particular possível.

On the development of a test-bed application for the ART-WiSe architecture

The ART-WiSe (Architecture for Real-Time communications in Wireless Sensor Networks) framework aims at the design of new communication architectures and mechanisms for time-sensitive Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs). We adopted a two-tiered architecture where an overlay Wireless Local Area Network (Tier 2) serves as a backbone for a WSN (Tier 1), relying on existing standard communication protocols and commercial-off-the-shell (COTS) technologies – IEEE 802.15.4/ZigBee for Tier 1 and IEEE 802.11 for Tier 2. In this line, a test-bed application is being developed for assessing, validating and demonstrating the ART-WiSe architecture. A pursuit-evasion application was chosen since it fulfils a number of requirements, namely it is feasible and appealing and imposes some stress to the architecture in terms of timeliness. To develop the testbed based on the previously referred technologies, an implementation of the IEEE 8021.5.4/ZigBee protocols is being carried out, since there is no open source available to the community. This paper highlights some relevant aspects of the ART-WiSe architecture, provides some intuition on the protocol stack implementation and presents a general view over the envisaged test-bed application.

On a test-bed application for the ART-WiSe framework

This report describes the development of a Test-bed Application for the ART-WiSe Framework with the aim of providing a means of access, validate and demonstrate that architecture. The chosen application is a kind of pursuit-evasion game where a remote controlled robot, navigating through an area covered by wireless sensor network (WSN), is detected and continuously tracked by the WSN. Then a centralized control station takes the appropriate actions for a pursuit robot to chase and “capture” the intruder one. This kind of application imposes stringent timing requirements to the underlying communication infrastructure. It also involves interesting research problems in WSNs like tracking, localization, cooperation between nodes, energy concerns and mobility. Additionally, it can be easily ported into a real-world application. Surveillance or search and rescue operations are two examples where this kind of functionality can be applied. This is still a first approach on the test-bed application and this development effort will be continuously pushed forward until all the envisaged objectives for the Art-WiSe architecture become accomplished.

Shear modulus and strength of an acrylic adhesive by the notched plate shear method (Arcan) and the thick adherend shear test (TAST)

In this work, the shear modulus and strength of the acrylic adhesive 3M® DP 8005 was evaluated by two different methods: the Thick Adherend Shear Test (TAST) and the Notched Plate Shear Method (Arcan). However, TAST standards advise the use of a special extensometer attached to the specimen, which requires a very experienced technician. In the present study, the adhesive shear displacement for the TAST was measured using an optical technique, and also with a conventional inductive extensometer of 25 mm used for tensile tests. This allowed for an assessment of suitability of using a conventional extensometer to measure this parameter. Since the results obtained by the two techniques are identical, it can be concluded that using a conventional extensometer is a valid option to obtain the shear modulus for the particular adhesive used. In the Arcan tests, the adhesive shear displacement was only measured using the optical technique. This work also aimed the comparison of shear modulus and strength obtained by the TAST and Arcan test methods.

Using test infrastructures for (remote) online evaluation of the sensitivity to SEUs of FPGAs

This paper proposes an online mechanism that can evaluate the sensitivity of single event upsets (SEUs) of field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). The online detection mechanism cyclically reads and compares the values form the external and internal configuration memories, taking into account the mask information. This remote detection method also signals any mismatch as a result of a SEU that affects both used and not-used FPGA parts, which maximizes the monitored area. By utilizing an external, Web-accessible controller that is connected to the test infrastructure, the possibility of running the same operation in a remote manner is enabled. Moreover, the need for a local memory to store the mask values is also eliminated.

From design-for-test to design-for-debug-and-test: analysis of requirements and limitations for 1149.1

The increasing complexity of VLSI circuits and the reduced accessibility of modern packaging and mounting technologies restrict the usefulness of conventional in-circuit debugging tools, such as in-circuit emulators for microprocessors and microcontrollers. However, this same trend enables the development of more complex products, which in turn require more powerful debugging tools. These conflicting demands could be met if the standard scan test infrastructures now common in most complex components were able to match the debugging requirements of design verification and prototype validation. This paper analyses the main debug requirements in the design of microprocessor-based applications and the feasibility of their implementation using the mandatory, optional and additional operating modes of the standard IEEE 1149.1 test infrastructure.

Mode III interlaminar fracture of carbon/epoxy laminates using the edge crack torsion (ECT) test

The mode III interlaminar fracture of carbon/epoxy laminates was evaluated with the edge crack torsion (ECT) test. Three-dimensional finite element analyses were performed in order to select two specimen geometries and an experimental data reduction scheme. Test results showed considerable non-linearity before the maximum load point and a significant R-curve effect. These features prevented an accurate definition of the initiation point. Nevertheless, analyses of non-linearity zones showed two likely initiation points corresponding to GIIIc values between 850 and 1100 J/m2 for both specimen geometries. Although any of these values is realistic, the range is too broad, thus showing the limitations of the ECT test and the need for further research.

People counting system using existing surveillance video camera

The Casa da Música Foundation, responsible for the management of Casa da Música do Porto building, has the need to obtain statistical data related to the number of building’s visitors. This information is a valuable tool for the elaboration of periodical reports concerning the success of this cultural institution. For this reason it was necessary to develop a system capable of returning the number of visitors for a requested period of time. This represents a complex task due to the building’s unique architectural design, characterized by very large doors and halls, and the sudden large number of people that pass through them in moments preceding and proceeding the different activities occurring in the building. To achieve the technical solution for this challenge, several image processing methods, for people detection with still cameras, were first studied. The next step was the development of a real time algorithm, using OpenCV libraries and computer vision concepts,to count individuals with the desired accuracy. This algorithm includes the scientific and technical knowledge acquired in the study of the previous methods. The themes developed in this thesis comprise the fields of background maintenance, shadow and highlight detection, and blob detection and tracking. A graphical interface was also built, to help on the development, test and tunning of the proposed system, as a complement to the work. Furthermore, tests to the system were also performed, to certify the proposed techniques against a set of limited circumstances. The results obtained revealed that the algorithm was successfully applied to count the number of people in complex environments with reliable accuracy.

Desenvolvimento de ferramentas e provetes para o ensaio Thick Adherend Shear Test (TAST).

As estruturas coladas são geralmente projetadas para que o adesivo seja essencialmente sujeito a esforços de corte, pois neste tipo de solicitação o adesivo apresenta melhores caraterísticas mecânicas. A avaliação do comportamento ao corte pode ser realizada com o adesivo no estado maciço ou como camada fina em juntas adesivas. Os métodos que permitem avaliar o comportamento ao corte, quer para o adesivo, quer para as juntas, são: o ensaio Iosipescu ou V-Notched beam shear method, o ensaio de borboleta ou Notched plate shear method (Arcan), o ensaio de torsão, o ensaio de tração numa junta de sobreposição simples e o ensaio Thick Adherend Shear Test (TAST). Os ensaios Arcan e Iosipescu, tal como o ensaio de torção, podem ser realizados em provetes de adesivo maciço ou em juntas. O ensaio de torção é pouco utilizado, porque a aplicação do esforço de corte exige dispositivos e equipamentos de ensaios complexos. Os ensaios Arcan e Iosipescu utilizam provetes com entalhes e podem introduzir alguma dificuldade na medição precisa das deformações. O ensaio de tração numa junta de sobreposição simples é um dos métodos mais usados para caraterizar uma junta adesiva, porque é um método simples, as juntas são de fácil fabrico e pode ser realizado em máquinas universais de ensaios mecânicos. Neste ensaio os aderentes estão sujeitos a uma solicitação de tração, enquanto a camada de adesivo está sujeita a esforços de corte combinados com esforços de arrancamento. Os esforços de arrancamento resultam da própria geometria da junta na qual existe um desalinhamento das forças de tração, mesmo quando são colocados calços (reguladores de espessura) nos locais de amarração. O ensaio TAST é dos mais populares para obtenção das propriedades ao corte, uma vez que tanto as ferramentas de ensaio como o fabrico dos provetes são relativamente simples. Este ensaio é realizado em junta sendo os substratos espessos e de aço que, devido à sua elevada rigidez, contribuem para um esforço de corte praticamente puro no adesivo. Neste trabalho realizou-se o projeto e a fabricação das ferramentas, gabarit e substratos necessários para a execução de provetes TAST e ensaios utilizando diferentes adesivos.

Space-time monitoring of prescribed burnt soils performance – an effective tool for forest management

Among the most important measures to prevent wild forest fires is the use of prescribed and controlled burning actions in order to reduce the availability of fuel mass. However, the impact of these activities on soil physical and chemical properties varies according to the type of both soil and vegetation and is not fully understood. Therefore, soil monitoring campaigns are often used to measure these impacts. In this paper we have successfully used three statistical data treatments - the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test followed by the ANOVA and the Kruskall-Wallis tests – to investigate the variability among the soil pH, soil moisture, soil organic matter and soil iron variables for different monitoring times and sampling procedures.

Some reflections on acquisition, processing and analysis of statistical data in forest soils

Beyond the classical statistical approaches (determination of basic statistics, regression analysis, ANOVA, etc.) a new set of applications of different statistical techniques has increasingly gained relevance in the analysis, processing and interpretation of data concerning the characteristics of forest soils. This is possible to be seen in some of the recent publications in the context of Multivariate Statistics. These new methods require additional care that is not always included or refered in some approaches. In the particular case of geostatistical data applications it is necessary, besides to geo-reference all the data acquisition, to collect the samples in regular grids and in sufficient quantity so that the variograms can reflect the spatial distribution of soil properties in a representative manner. In the case of the great majority of Multivariate Statistics techniques (Principal Component Analysis, Correspondence Analysis, Cluster Analysis, etc.) despite the fact they do not require in most cases the assumption of normal distribution, they however need a proper and rigorous strategy for its utilization. In this work, some reflections about these methodologies and, in particular, about the main constraints that often occur during the information collecting process and about the various linking possibilities of these different techniques will be presented. At the end, illustrations of some particular cases of the applications of these statistical methods will also be presented.

A modalidade de financiamento das empresas nas províncias de Kwanza-Norte e Malanje: Angola

Dissertação de Mestrado Apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação do Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira.