New findings on the dynamics of HIV and TB coinfection models

In this paper we study a model for HIV and TB coinfection. We consider the integer order and the fractional order versions of the model. Let α∈[0.78,1.0] be the order of the fractional derivative, then the integer order model is obtained for α=1.0. The model includes vertical transmission for HIV and treatment for both diseases. We compute the reproduction number of the integer order model and HIV and TB submodels, and the stability of the disease free equilibrium. We sketch the bifurcation diagrams of the integer order model, for variation of the average number of sexual partners per person and per unit time, and the tuberculosis transmission rate. We analyze numerical results of the fractional order model for different values of α, including α=1. The results show distinct types of transients, for variation of α. Moreover, we speculate, from observation of the numerical results, that the order of the fractional derivative may behave as a bifurcation parameter for the model. We conclude that the dynamics of the integer and the fractional order versions of the model are very rich and that together these versions may provide a better understanding of the dynamics of HIV and TB coinfection.

Estudo e integração de business models e a sua aplicação em smart-ups e projetos portugueses

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Gestão das Organizações, Ramo Gestão de Empresas Orientador: Professor Doutor Eduardo Manuel Lopes de Sá e Silva Co-orientador: Mestre Maria de Fátima Mendes Monteiro

Design a computer programming learning environment for Massive Open Online Courses

Teaching and learning computer programming is as challenging as difficult. Assessing the work of students and providing individualised feedback to all is time-consuming and error prone for teachers and frequently involves a time delay. The existent tools and specifications prove to be insufficient in complex evaluation domains where there is a greater need to practice. At the same time Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) are appearing revealing a new way of learning, more dynamic and more accessible. However this new paradigm raises serious questions regarding the monitoring of student progress and its timely feedback. This paper provides a conceptual design model for a computer programming learning environment. This environment uses the portal interface design model gathering information from a network of services such as repositories and program evaluators. The design model includes also the integration with learning management systems, a central piece in the MOOC realm, endowing the model with characteristics such as scalability, collaboration and interoperability. This model is not limited to the domain of computer programming and can be adapted to any complex area that requires systematic evaluation with immediate feedback.

Maturity models in the hospital information systems management initial research

Os modelos de maturidade são instrumentos facilitadores da gestão das organizações, incluindo a gestão da sua função sistemas de informação, não sendo exceção as organizações hospitalares. Neste artigo apresenta-se uma investigação inicial que visa o desenvolvimento de um abrangente modelo de maturidade para a gestão dos sistemas de informação hospitalares. O desenvolvimento deste modelo justifica-se porque os modelos de maturidade atuais no domínio da gestão dos sistemas informação hospitalares ainda se encontram numa fase embrionária de desenvolvimento, sobretudo porque são pouco detalhados, não disponibilizam ferramentas para determinação da maturidade e não apresentam as características dos estágios de maturidade estruturadas por diferentes fatores de influência.

Comparing the performance of geostatistical models with additional information from covariates for sewage plume characterization

In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Mat`ern models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Massive Open Online Course management: learning science and engineering through peer-reviewed projects

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) are gaining prominence in transversal teaching-learning strategies. However, there are many issues still debated, namely assessment, recognized largely as a cornerstone in Education. The large number of students involved requires a redefinition of strategies that often use approaches based on tasks or challenging projects. In these conditions and due to this approach, assessment is made through peer-reviewed assignments and quizzes online. The peer-reviewed assignments are often based upon sample answers or topics, which guide the student in the task of evaluating peers. This chapter analyzes the grading and evaluation in MOOCs, especially in science and engineering courses, within the context of education and grading methodologies and discusses possible perspectives to pursue grading quality in massive e-learning courses.

Teaching mathematics using Massive Open Online Courses

Distance learning - where students take courses (attend classes, get activities and other sort of learning materials) while being physically separated from their instructors, for larger part of the course duration - is far from being a “new event”. Since the middle of the nineteenth century, this has been done through Radio, Mail and TV, taking advantage of the full educational potential that these media resources had to offer at the time. However, in recent times we have, at our complete disposal, the “magic wonder” of communication and globalization - the Internet. Taking advantage of a whole new set of educational opportunities, with a more or less unselfish “look” to economic interests, focusing its concern on a larger and collective “welfare”, contributing to the development of a more “equitable” world, with regard to educational opportunities, the Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) were born and have become an important feature of the higher education in recent years. Many people have been talking about MOOCs as a potential educational revolution, which has arrived from North America, still growing and spreading, referring to its benefits and/or disadvantages. The Polytechnic Institute of Porto, also known as IPP, is a Higher Education Portuguese institution providing undergraduate and graduate studies, which has a solid history of online education and innovation through the use of technology, and it has been particularly interested and focused on MOOC developments, based on an open educational policy in order to try to implement some differentiated learning strategies to its actual students and as a way to attract future ones. Therefore, in July 2014, IPP launched the first Math MOOC on its own platform. This paper describes the requirements, the resulting design and implementation of a mathematics MOOC, which was essentially addressed to three target populations: - pre-college students or individuals wishing to update their Math skills or that need to prepare for the National Exam of Mathematics; - Higher Education students who have not attended in High School, this subject, and who feel the need to acquire basic knowledge about some of the topics covered; - High School Teachers who may use these resources with their students allowing them to develop teaching methodologies like "Flipped Classroom” (available at http://www.opened.ipp.pt/). The MOOC was developed in partnership with several professors from several schools from IPP, gathering different math competences and backgrounds to create and put to work different activities such video lectures and quizzes. We will also try to briefly discuss the advertising strategy being developed to promote this MOOC, since it is not offered through a main MOOC portal, such as Coursera or Udacity.