ANN-Based LMP forecasting in a distribution network with large penetration of DG

In recent years, power systems have experienced many changes in their paradigm. The introduction of new players in the management of distributed generation leads to the decentralization of control and decision-making, so that each player is able to play in the market environment. In the new context, it will be very relevant that aggregator players allow midsize, small and micro players to act in a competitive environment. In order to achieve their objectives, virtual power players and single players are required to optimize their energy resource management process. To achieve this, it is essential to have financial resources capable of providing access to appropriate decision support tools. As small players have difficulties in having access to such tools, it is necessary that these players can benefit from alternative methodologies to support their decisions. This paper presents a methodology, based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and intended to support smaller players. In this case the present methodology uses a training set that is created using energy resource scheduling solutions obtained using a mixed-integer linear programming (MIP) approach as the reference optimization methodology. The trained network is used to obtain locational marginal prices in a distribution network. The main goal of the paper is to verify the accuracy of the ANN based approach. Moreover, the use of a single ANN is compared with the use of two or more ANN to forecast the locational marginal price.

Using demand response to deal with unexpected low wind power generation in the context of smart grid

Demand response is assumed an essential resource to fully achieve the smart grids operating benefits, namely in the context of competitive markets. Some advantages of Demand Response (DR) programs and of smart grids can only be achieved through the implementation of Real Time Pricing (RTP). The integration of the expected increasing amounts of distributed energy resources, as well as new players, requires new approaches for the changing operation of power systems. The methodology proposed aims the minimization of the operation costs in a smart grid operated by a virtual power player. It is especially useful when actual and day ahead wind forecast differ significantly. When facing lower wind power generation than expected, RTP is used in order to minimize the impacts of such wind availability change. The proposed model application is here illustrated using the scenario of a special wind availability reduction day in the Portuguese power system (8th February 2012).

Virtual power players dealing with excessive wind power situations using real time pricing

The increasing importance given by environmental policies to the dissemination and use of wind power has led to its fast and large integration in power systems. In most cases, this integration has been done in an intensive way, causing several impacts and challenges in current and future power systems operation and planning. One of these challenges is dealing with the system conditions in which the available wind power is higher than the system demand. This is one of the possible applications of demand response, which is a very promising resource in the context of competitive environments that integrates even more amounts of distributed energy resources, as well as new players. The methodology proposed aims the maximization of the social welfare in a smart grid operated by a virtual power player that manages the available energy resources. When facing excessive wind power generation availability, real time pricing is applied in order to induce the increase of consumption so that wind curtailment is minimized. The proposed method is especially useful when actual and day-ahead wind forecast differ significantly. The proposed method has been computationally implemented in GAMS optimization tool and its application is illustrated in this paper using a real 937-bus distribution network with 20310 consumers and 548 distributed generators, some of them with must take contracts.

An integrated approach for distributed energy resource short term scheduling in smart grids considering realistic power system simulation

The large increase of distributed energy resources, including distributed generation, storage systems and demand response, especially in distribution networks, makes the management of the available resources a more complex and crucial process. With wind based generation gaining relevance, in terms of the generation mix, the fact that wind forecasting accuracy rapidly drops with the increase of the forecast anticipation time requires to undertake short-term and very short-term re-scheduling so the final implemented solution enables the lowest possible operation costs. This paper proposes a methodology for energy resource scheduling in smart grids, considering day ahead, hour ahead and five minutes ahead scheduling. The short-term scheduling, undertaken five minutes ahead, takes advantage of the high accuracy of the very-short term wind forecasting providing the user with more efficient scheduling solutions. The proposed method uses a Genetic Algorithm based approach for optimization that is able to cope with the hard execution time constraint of short-term scheduling. Realistic power system simulation, based on PSCAD , is used to validate the obtained solutions. The paper includes a case study with a 33 bus distribution network with high penetration of distributed energy resources implemented in PSCAD .

Adaptive learning in multiagent systems: a forecasting methodology based on error analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

A short-term risk management tool applied to OMEL electricity market using particle swarm optimization

Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.

Distribution network short term scheduling in Smart Grid context

The large increase of Distributed Generation (DG) in Power Systems (PS) and specially in distribution networks makes the management of distribution generation resources an increasingly important issue. Beyond DG, other resources such as storage systems and demand response must be managed in order to obtain more efficient and “green” operation of PS. More players, such as aggregators or Virtual Power Players (VPP), that operate these kinds of resources will be appearing. This paper proposes a new methodology to solve the distribution network short term scheduling problem in the Smart Grid context. This methodology is based on a Genetic Algorithms (GA) approach for energy resource scheduling optimization and on PSCAD software to obtain realistic results for power system simulation. The paper includes a case study with 99 distributed generators, 208 loads and 27 storage units. The GA results for the determination of the economic dispatch considering the generation forecast, storage management and load curtailment in each period (one hour) are compared with the ones obtained with a Mixed Integer Non-Linear Programming (MINLP) approach.

A long-term swarm intelligence hedging tool applied to electricity markets

This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Technical and economic resources management in smart grids using heuristic optimization methods

Intensive use of Distributed Generation (DG) represents a change in the paradigm of power systems operation making small-scale energy generation and storage decision making relevant for the whole system. This paradigm led to the concept of smart grid for which an efficient management, both in technical and economic terms, should be assured. This paper presents a new approach to solve the economic dispatch in smart grids. The proposed methodology for resource management involves two stages. The first one considers fuzzy set theory to define the natural resources range forecast as well as the load forecast. The second stage uses heuristic optimization to determine the economic dispatch considering the generation forecast, storage management and demand response

Optimal methodology for distribution systems reconfiguration based on OPF and solved by decomposition technique

This paper presents a new and efficient methodology for distribution network reconfiguration integrated with optimal power flow (OPF) based on a Benders decomposition approach. The objective minimizes power losses, balancing load among feeders and subject to constraints: capacity limit of branches, minimum and maximum power limits of substations or distributed generators, minimum deviation of bus voltages and radial optimal operation of networks. The Generalized Benders decomposition algorithm is applied to solve the problem. The formulation can be embedded under two stages; the first one is the Master problem and is formulated as a mixed integer non-linear programming problem. This stage determines the radial topology of the distribution network. The second stage is the Slave problem and is formulated as a non-linear programming problem. This stage is used to determine the feasibility of the Master problem solution by means of an OPF and provides information to formulate the linear Benders cuts that connect both problems. The model is programmed in GAMS. The effectiveness of the proposal is demonstrated through two examples extracted from the literature.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

Modelo de previsão meteorológica baseado em sistemas de inferência difusa

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

A efectividade da intervenção da fisioterapia nas disfunções crânio- cervico-mandibulares

Introdução: As teorias etiológicas recíprocas que relacionam as disfunções da articulação temporo mandibular (ATM) com as disfunções da coluna cervical, os seus critérios de diagnóstico e formas de tratamento, não reúnem consenso, constituindo, actualmente, uma temática de debate e investigação. Objectivo: Descrever a avaliação e intervenção em fisioterapia, e os seus resultados numa utente com disfunção do complexo crânio-cervico-mandibular. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo observacional descritivo, do tipo estudo de caso, reportando-se a uma enfermeira, de 28 anos, com quadro sintomatológico compatível com disfunção crânio-cervico-mandibular, com antecedentes de condilectomia e artroplastia da ATM, aos 14 anos. Inicialmente a utente apresentava dor irradiada na região cervical (7/10) e limitação dos movimentos articulares da coluna cervical. Referia, também, dor na região do ptérion direito (6/10), limitação dos movimentos da mandíbula, desvio lateral na abertura da boca e dificuldades funcionais na mastigação. A avaliação inicial e final (após tratamento), foi efectuada recorrendo-se à utilização do Goniometro CROM e da Therabite Range of Motion Scale, para medição das amplitudes articulares da cervical e ATM, respectivamente; Estetoscópio, para avaliação dos sons articulares da ATM; Escala Visual Analógica para graduação da dor. A intervenção decorreu ao longo de 10 sessões, bissemanais. No tratamento, foram aplicadas técnicas sobre os trigers points da musculatura cervical e músculos da mastigação; Mobilização passiva da cervical e ATM; Manipulação dos segmentos vertebrais cervicais e torácicos; Streching e técnicas de energia muscular; Técnicas funcionais para a ATM; Técnicas miofasciais para a coluna cervical e ATM; Exercícios de controlo motor da coluna cervical. Resultados: No final do tratamento, as amplitudes dos movimentos cervicais estavam completas e sem dor (0/10), mantendo, sensibilidade dolorosa à palpação das espinhosas de C5-C6 (1/10). Relativamente à ATM, verifica-se a abolição da dor (0/10) e a ausência do desvio lateral da mandíbula na abertura da boca, bem como, o aumento das amplitudes de movimento na abertura da boca (33 para 36 mm), e no desvio lateral esquerdo (2 para 2,8 mm). Conclusão: os resultados sugerem que a intervenção, com recurso a técnicas de terapia manual, no caso em estudo, parecem surtir efeitos positivos no quadro sintomatológico e funcional da utente.

Optimization of QuEChERS method for the analysis of organochlorine pesticides in soils with diverse organic matter

A QuEChERS method has been developed for the determination of 14 organochlorine pesticides in 14 soils from different Portuguese regions with wide range composition. The extracts were analysed by GC-ECD (where GC-ECD is gas chromatography-electron-capture detector) and confirmed by GC-MS/MS (where MS/MS is tandem mass spectrometry). The organic matter content is a key factor in the process efficiency. An optimization was carried out according to soils organic carbon level, divided in two groups: HS (organic carbon>2.3%) and LS (organic carbon<2.3%). Themethod was validated through linearity, recovery, precision and accuracy studies. The quantification was carried out using a matrixmatched calibration to minimize the existence of the matrix effect. Acceptable recoveries were obtained (70–120%) with a relative standard deviation of ≤16% for the three levels of contamination. The ranges of the limits of detection and of the limits of quantification in soils HS were from 3.42 to 23.77 μg kg−1 and from 11.41 to 79.23 μg kg−1, respectively. For LS soils, the limits of detection ranged from 6.11 to 14.78 μg kg−1 and the limits of quantification from 20.37 to 49.27 μg kg−1. In the 14 collected soil samples only one showed a residue of dieldrin (45.36 μg kg−1) above the limit of quantification. This methodology combines the advantages of QuEChERS, GC-ECD detection and GC-MS/MS confirmation producing a very rapid, sensitive and reliable procedure which can be applied in routine analytical laboratories.

Pesticide residues in Portuguese strawberries grown in 2009–2010 using integrated pest management and organic farming

Pesticides are among the most widely used chemicals in the world. Because of the widespread use of agricultural chemicals in food production, people are exposed to low levels of pesticide residues through their diets. Scientists do not yet have a total understanding of the health effects of these pesticide residues. This work aims to determine differences in terms of pesticide residue content in Portuguese strawberries grown using different agriculture practices. The Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged, and Safe sample preparation method was conducted and shown to have good performance for multiclass pesticides extraction in strawberries. The screening of 25 pesticides residue was performed by gas chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. In quantitative validation, acceptable performances were achieved with recoveries of 70–120 and <12 % residual standard deviation for 25 pesticides. Good linearity was obtained for all the target compounds, with highly satisfactory repeatability. The limits of detection were in the range of 0.1–28 μg/kg. The method was applied to analyze strawberry samples from organic and integrated pest management (IPM) practices harvested in 2009–2010. The results showed the presence of fludioxonil, bifenthrin, mepanipyrim, tolylfluanid, cyprodinil, tetraconazole, and malathion when using IPM below the maximum residue levels.