Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar, ainda permanecem questões científicas empíricas sobre a identificação do modelo geral teórico de mercado mais adequado para modelar a difusão das séries. Em quarto lugar, aos reguladores e gestores de risco importa saber se existem mercados persistentes e, por isso, ineficientes, que, portanto, possam produzir retornos anormais. O objetivo do trabalho de investigação da dissertação é duplo. Por um lado, pretende proporcionar conhecimento adicional para o debate da memória de longo prazo, debruçando-se sobre o comportamento das séries diárias de retornos dos principais índices acionistas da EURONEXT. Por outro lado, pretende contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model CAPM, considerando uma medida de risco alternativa capaz de ultrapassar os constrangimentos da hipótese de mercado eficiente EMH na presença de séries financeiras com processos sem incrementos independentes e identicamente distribuídos (i.i.d.). O estudo empírico indica a possibilidade de utilização alternativa das obrigações do tesouro (OT’s) com maturidade de longo prazo no cálculo dos retornos do mercado, dado que o seu comportamento nos mercados de dívida soberana reflete a confiança dos investidores nas condições financeiras dos Estados e mede a forma como avaliam as respetiva economias com base no desempenho da generalidade dos seus ativos. Embora o modelo de difusão de preços definido pelo movimento Browniano geométrico gBm alegue proporcionar um bom ajustamento das séries temporais financeiras, os seus pressupostos de normalidade, estacionariedade e independência das inovações residuais são adulterados pelos dados empíricos analisados. Por isso, na procura de evidências sobre a propriedade de memória longa nos mercados recorre-se à rescaled-range analysis R/S e à detrended fluctuation analysis DFA, sob abordagem do movimento Browniano fracionário fBm, para estimar o expoente Hurst H em relação às séries de dados completas e para calcular o expoente Hurst “local” H t em janelas móveis. Complementarmente, são realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses através do rescaled-range tests R/S , do modified rescaled-range test M - R/S e do fractional differencing test GPH. Em termos de uma conclusão única a partir de todos os métodos sobre a natureza da dependência para o mercado acionista em geral, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos. Isso quer dizer que o grau de memória de longo prazo e, assim, qualquer classificação, depende de cada mercado particular. No entanto, os resultados gerais maioritariamente positivos suportam a presença de memória longa, sob a forma de persistência, nos retornos acionistas da Bélgica, Holanda e Portugal. Isto sugere que estes mercados estão mais sujeitos a maior previsibilidade (“efeito José”), mas também a tendências que podem ser inesperadamente interrompidas por descontinuidades (“efeito Noé”), e, por isso, tendem a ser mais arriscados para negociar. Apesar da evidência de dinâmica fractal ter suporte estatístico fraco, em sintonia com a maior parte dos estudos internacionais, refuta a hipótese de passeio aleatório com incrementos i.i.d., que é a base da EMH na sua forma fraca. Atendendo a isso, propõem-se contributos para aperfeiçoamento do CAPM, através da proposta de uma nova fractal capital market line FCML e de uma nova fractal security market line FSML. A nova proposta sugere que o elemento de risco (para o mercado e para um ativo) seja dado pelo expoente H de Hurst para desfasamentos de longo prazo dos retornos acionistas. O expoente H mede o grau de memória de longo prazo nos índices acionistas, quer quando as séries de retornos seguem um processo i.i.d. não correlacionado, descrito pelo gBm(em que H = 0,5 , confirmando- se a EMH e adequando-se o CAPM), quer quando seguem um processo com dependência estatística, descrito pelo fBm(em que H é diferente de 0,5, rejeitando-se a EMH e desadequando-se o CAPM). A vantagem da FCML e da FSML é que a medida de memória de longo prazo, definida por H, é a referência adequada para traduzir o risco em modelos que possam ser aplicados a séries de dados que sigam processos i.i.d. e processos com dependência não linear. Então, estas formulações contemplam a EMH como um caso particular possível.

On the development of a test-bed application for the ART-WiSe architecture

The ART-WiSe (Architecture for Real-Time communications in Wireless Sensor Networks) framework aims at the design of new communication architectures and mechanisms for time-sensitive Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs). We adopted a two-tiered architecture where an overlay Wireless Local Area Network (Tier 2) serves as a backbone for a WSN (Tier 1), relying on existing standard communication protocols and commercial-off-the-shell (COTS) technologies – IEEE 802.15.4/ZigBee for Tier 1 and IEEE 802.11 for Tier 2. In this line, a test-bed application is being developed for assessing, validating and demonstrating the ART-WiSe architecture. A pursuit-evasion application was chosen since it fulfils a number of requirements, namely it is feasible and appealing and imposes some stress to the architecture in terms of timeliness. To develop the testbed based on the previously referred technologies, an implementation of the IEEE 8021.5.4/ZigBee protocols is being carried out, since there is no open source available to the community. This paper highlights some relevant aspects of the ART-WiSe architecture, provides some intuition on the protocol stack implementation and presents a general view over the envisaged test-bed application.

On a test-bed application for the ART-WiSe framework

This report describes the development of a Test-bed Application for the ART-WiSe Framework with the aim of providing a means of access, validate and demonstrate that architecture. The chosen application is a kind of pursuit-evasion game where a remote controlled robot, navigating through an area covered by wireless sensor network (WSN), is detected and continuously tracked by the WSN. Then a centralized control station takes the appropriate actions for a pursuit robot to chase and “capture” the intruder one. This kind of application imposes stringent timing requirements to the underlying communication infrastructure. It also involves interesting research problems in WSNs like tracking, localization, cooperation between nodes, energy concerns and mobility. Additionally, it can be easily ported into a real-world application. Surveillance or search and rescue operations are two examples where this kind of functionality can be applied. This is still a first approach on the test-bed application and this development effort will be continuously pushed forward until all the envisaged objectives for the Art-WiSe architecture become accomplished.

Numerical and experimental study of tensile strength of single and double-strap repairs

Adhesive bonding as a joining or repair method has a wide application in many industries. Repairs with bonded patches are often carried out to re-establish the stiffness at critical regions or spots of corrosion and/or fatigue cracks. Single and double-strap repairs (SS and DS, respectively) are a viable option for repairing. For the SS repairs, a patch is adhesively-bonded on one of the structure faces. SS repairs are easy to execute, but the load eccentricity leads to peel peak stresses at the overlap edges. DS repairs involve the use of two patches, one on each face of the structure. These are more efficient than SS repairs, due to the doubling of the bonding area and suppression of the transverse deflection of the adherends. Shear stresses also become more uniform as a result of smaller differential straining. The experimental and Finite Element (FE) study presented here for strength prediction and design optimization of bonded repairs includes SS and DS solutions with different values of overlap length (LO). The examined values of LO include 10, 20 and 30 mm. The failure strengths of the SS and DS repairs were compared with FE results by using the Abaqus® FE software. A Cohesive Zone Model (CZM) with a triangular shape in pure tensile and shear modes, including the mixed-mode possibility for crack growth, was used to simulate fracture of the adhesive layer. A good agreement was found between the experiments and the FE simulations on the failure modes, elastic stiffness and strength of the repairs, showing the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed FE technique in predicting strength of bonded repairs. Furthermore, some optimization principles were proposed to repair structures with adhesively-bonded patches that will allow repair designers to effectively design bonded repairs.

Buckling strength of adhesively-bonded single and double-strap repairs on carbon-epoxy structures

This work reports on an experimental and finite element method (FEM) parametric study of adhesively-bonded single and double-strap repairs on carbon-epoxy structures under buckling unrestrained compression. The influence of the overlap length and patch thickness was evaluated. This loading gains a particular significance from the additional characteristic mechanisms of structures under compression, such as fibres microbuckling, for buckling restrained structures, or global buckling of the assembly, if no transverse restriction exists. The FEM analysis is based on the use of cohesive elements including mixed-mode criteria to simulate a cohesive fracture of the adhesive layer. Trapezoidal laws in pure modes I and II were used to account for the ductility of most structural adhesives. These laws were estimated for the adhesive used from double cantilever beam (DCB) and end-notched flexure (ENF) tests, respectively, using an inverse technique. The pure mode III cohesive law was equalled to the pure mode II one. Compression failure in the laminates was predicted using a stress-based criterion. The accurate FEM predictions open a good prospect for the reduction of the extensive experimentation in the design of carbon-epoxy repairs. Design principles were also established for these repairs under buckling.

Shear modulus and strength of an acrylic adhesive by the notched plate shear method (Arcan) and the thick adherend shear test (TAST)

In this work, the shear modulus and strength of the acrylic adhesive 3M® DP 8005 was evaluated by two different methods: the Thick Adherend Shear Test (TAST) and the Notched Plate Shear Method (Arcan). However, TAST standards advise the use of a special extensometer attached to the specimen, which requires a very experienced technician. In the present study, the adhesive shear displacement for the TAST was measured using an optical technique, and also with a conventional inductive extensometer of 25 mm used for tensile tests. This allowed for an assessment of suitability of using a conventional extensometer to measure this parameter. Since the results obtained by the two techniques are identical, it can be concluded that using a conventional extensometer is a valid option to obtain the shear modulus for the particular adhesive used. In the Arcan tests, the adhesive shear displacement was only measured using the optical technique. This work also aimed the comparison of shear modulus and strength obtained by the TAST and Arcan test methods.

Using test infrastructures for (remote) online evaluation of the sensitivity to SEUs of FPGAs

This paper proposes an online mechanism that can evaluate the sensitivity of single event upsets (SEUs) of field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). The online detection mechanism cyclically reads and compares the values form the external and internal configuration memories, taking into account the mask information. This remote detection method also signals any mismatch as a result of a SEU that affects both used and not-used FPGA parts, which maximizes the monitored area. By utilizing an external, Web-accessible controller that is connected to the test infrastructure, the possibility of running the same operation in a remote manner is enabled. Moreover, the need for a local memory to store the mask values is also eliminated.

Strength prediction of single- and double-lap joints by standard and extended finite element modelling

The structural integrity of multi-component structures is usually determined by the strength and durability of their unions. Adhesive bonding is often chosen over welding, riveting and bolting, due to the reduction of stress concentrations, reduced weight penalty and easy manufacturing, amongst other issues. In the past decades, the Finite Element Method (FEM) has been used for the simulation and strength prediction of bonded structures, by strength of materials or fracture mechanics-based criteria. Cohesive-zone models (CZMs) have already proved to be an effective tool in modelling damage growth, surpassing a few limitations of the aforementioned techniques. Despite this fact, they still suffer from the restriction of damage growth only at predefined growth paths. The eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM) is a recent improvement of the FEM, developed to allow the growth of discontinuities within bulk solids along an arbitrary path, by enriching degrees of freedom with special displacement functions, thus overcoming the main restriction of CZMs. These two techniques were tested to simulate adhesively bonded single- and double-lap joints. The comparative evaluation of the two methods showed their capabilities and/or limitations for this specific purpose.

From design-for-test to design-for-debug-and-test: analysis of requirements and limitations for 1149.1

The increasing complexity of VLSI circuits and the reduced accessibility of modern packaging and mounting technologies restrict the usefulness of conventional in-circuit debugging tools, such as in-circuit emulators for microprocessors and microcontrollers. However, this same trend enables the development of more complex products, which in turn require more powerful debugging tools. These conflicting demands could be met if the standard scan test infrastructures now common in most complex components were able to match the debugging requirements of design verification and prototype validation. This paper analyses the main debug requirements in the design of microprocessor-based applications and the feasibility of their implementation using the mandatory, optional and additional operating modes of the standard IEEE 1149.1 test infrastructure.

Mode III interlaminar fracture of carbon/epoxy laminates using the edge crack torsion (ECT) test

The mode III interlaminar fracture of carbon/epoxy laminates was evaluated with the edge crack torsion (ECT) test. Three-dimensional finite element analyses were performed in order to select two specimen geometries and an experimental data reduction scheme. Test results showed considerable non-linearity before the maximum load point and a significant R-curve effect. These features prevented an accurate definition of the initiation point. Nevertheless, analyses of non-linearity zones showed two likely initiation points corresponding to GIIIc values between 850 and 1100 J/m2 for both specimen geometries. Although any of these values is realistic, the range is too broad, thus showing the limitations of the ECT test and the need for further research.

Desenvolvimento de ferramentas e provetes para o ensaio Thick Adherend Shear Test (TAST).

As estruturas coladas são geralmente projetadas para que o adesivo seja essencialmente sujeito a esforços de corte, pois neste tipo de solicitação o adesivo apresenta melhores caraterísticas mecânicas. A avaliação do comportamento ao corte pode ser realizada com o adesivo no estado maciço ou como camada fina em juntas adesivas. Os métodos que permitem avaliar o comportamento ao corte, quer para o adesivo, quer para as juntas, são: o ensaio Iosipescu ou V-Notched beam shear method, o ensaio de borboleta ou Notched plate shear method (Arcan), o ensaio de torsão, o ensaio de tração numa junta de sobreposição simples e o ensaio Thick Adherend Shear Test (TAST). Os ensaios Arcan e Iosipescu, tal como o ensaio de torção, podem ser realizados em provetes de adesivo maciço ou em juntas. O ensaio de torção é pouco utilizado, porque a aplicação do esforço de corte exige dispositivos e equipamentos de ensaios complexos. Os ensaios Arcan e Iosipescu utilizam provetes com entalhes e podem introduzir alguma dificuldade na medição precisa das deformações. O ensaio de tração numa junta de sobreposição simples é um dos métodos mais usados para caraterizar uma junta adesiva, porque é um método simples, as juntas são de fácil fabrico e pode ser realizado em máquinas universais de ensaios mecânicos. Neste ensaio os aderentes estão sujeitos a uma solicitação de tração, enquanto a camada de adesivo está sujeita a esforços de corte combinados com esforços de arrancamento. Os esforços de arrancamento resultam da própria geometria da junta na qual existe um desalinhamento das forças de tração, mesmo quando são colocados calços (reguladores de espessura) nos locais de amarração. O ensaio TAST é dos mais populares para obtenção das propriedades ao corte, uma vez que tanto as ferramentas de ensaio como o fabrico dos provetes são relativamente simples. Este ensaio é realizado em junta sendo os substratos espessos e de aço que, devido à sua elevada rigidez, contribuem para um esforço de corte praticamente puro no adesivo. Neste trabalho realizou-se o projeto e a fabricação das ferramentas, gabarit e substratos necessários para a execução de provetes TAST e ensaios utilizando diferentes adesivos.

Adherend thickness effect on the tensile fracture toughness of a structural adhesive using an optical data acquisition method

Adhesive bonding is nowadays a serious candidate to replace methods such as fastening or riveting, because of attractive mechanical properties. As a result, adhesives are being increasingly used in industries such as the automotive, aerospace and construction. Thus, it is highly important to predict the strength of bonded joints to assess the feasibility of joining during the fabrication process of components (e.g. due to complex geometries) or for repairing purposes. This work studies the tensile behaviour of adhesive joints between aluminium adherends considering different values of adherend thickness (h) and the double-cantilever beam (DCB) test. The experimental work consists of the definition of the tensile fracture toughness (GIC) for the different joint configurations. A conventional fracture characterization method was used, together with a J-integral approach, that take into account the plasticity effects occurring in the adhesive layer. An optical measurement method is used for the evaluation of crack tip opening and adherends rotation at the crack tip during the test, supported by a Matlab® sub-routine for the automated extraction of these quantities. As output of this work, a comparative evaluation between bonded systems with different values of adherend thickness is carried out and complete fracture data is provided in tension for the subsequent strength prediction of joints with identical conditions.

Mechanical and thermal characterization of a structural polyurethane adhesive modified with thermally expandable particles

Thermally expandable particles (TEPs) are used in a wide variety of applications by industry mainly for weight reduction and appearance improvement for thermoplastics, inks, and coatings. In adhesive bonding, TEPs have been used for recycling purposes. However, TEPs might be used to modify structural adhesives for other new purposes, such as: to increase the joint strength by creating an adhesive functionally modified along the overlap of the joint by gradual heating and/or to heal the adhesive in case of damage. In this study, the behaviour of a structural polyurethane adhesive modified with TEPs was investigated as a preliminary study for further investigations on the potential of TEPs in adhesive joints. Tensile bulk tests were performed to get the tensile properties of the unmodified and TEPs-modified adhesive, while Double Cantilever Beam (DCB) test was performed in order to evaluate the resistance to mode I crack propagation of unmodified and TEPs-modified adhesive. In addition, in order to investigate the behaviour of the particles while encapsulated in adhesives, a thermal analysis was done. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to examine the fracture surface morphology of the specimens. The fracture toughness of the TEPs-modified adhesive was found to increase by addition of TEPs, while the adhesive tensile strength at yield decreased. The temperature where the particles show the maximum expansion varied with TEPs concentration, decreasing with increasing the TEPs content.

Double power laws, fractals and self-similarity

Power law (PL) distributions have been largely reported in the modeling of distinct real phenomena and have been associated with fractal structures and self-similar systems. In this paper, we analyze real data that follows a PL and a double PL behavior and verify the relation between the PL coefficient and the capacity dimension of known fractals. It is to be proved a method that translates PLs coefficients into capacity dimension of fractals of any real data.

Strap repairs using embedded patches: numerical analysis and experimental results

Adhesively bonded repairs offer an attractive option for repair of aluminium structures, compared to more traditional methods such as fastening or welding. The single-strap (SS) and double-strap (DS) repairs are very straightforward to execute but stresses in the adhesive layer peak at the overlap ends. The DS repair requires both sides of the damaged structures to be reachable for repair, which is often not possible. In strap repairs, with the patches bonded at the outer surfaces, some limitations emerge such as the weight, aerodynamics and aesthetics. To minimize these effects, SS and DS repairs with embedded patches were evaluated in this work, such that the patches are flush with the adherends. For this purpose, in this work standard SS and DS repairs, and also with the patches embedded in the adherends, were tested under tension to allow the optimization of some repair variables such as the overlap length (LO) and type of adhesive, thus allowing the maximization of the repair strength. The effect of embedding the patch/patches on the fracture modes and failure loads was compared with finite elements (FE) analysis. The FE analysis was performed in ABAQUS® and cohesive zone modelling was used for the simulation of damage onset and growth in the adhesive layer. The comparison with the test data revealed an accurate prediction for all kinds of joints and provided some principles regarding this technique.