A data-mining based methodology for wind forecasting

In many countries the use of renewable energy is increasing due to the introduction of new energy and environmental policies. Thus, the focus on the efficient integration of renewable energy into electric power systems is becoming extremely important. Several European countries have already achieved high penetration of wind based electricity generation and are gradually evolving towards intensive use of this generation technology. The introduction of wind based generation in power systems poses new challenges for the power system operators. This is mainly due to the variability and uncertainty in weather conditions and, consequently, in the wind based generation. In order to deal with this uncertainty and to improve the power system efficiency, adequate wind forecasting tools must be used. This paper proposes a data-mining-based methodology for very short-term wind forecasting, which is suitable to deal with large real databases. The paper includes a case study based on a real database regarding the last three years of wind speed, and results for wind speed forecasting at 5 minutes intervals.

Radiation dose rates and exposure associated to Technologically Enhanced Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (TENORM) at locations of a Portuguese coal-fired power plant

Coal contains trace quantities of natural radionuclides such as Th-232, U-235, U-238, as well as their radioactive decay products and 40K. These radionuclides can be released as fly ash in atmospheric emissions from coal-fired power plants, dispersed into the environment and deposited on the surrounding top soils. Therefore, the natural radiation background level is enhanced and consequently increase the total dose for the nearby population. A radiation monitoring programme was used to assess the external dose contribution to the natural radiation background, potentially resulting from the dispersion of coal ash in past atmospheric emissions. Radiation measurements were carried out by gamma spectrometry in the vicinity of a Portuguese coal-fired power plant. The radiation monitoring was achieved both on and off site, being the boundary delimited by a 20 km circle centered in the stacks of the coal plant. The measured radionuclides concentrations for the uranium and thorium series ranged from 7.7 to 41.3 Bq/kg for Ra-226 and from 4.7 to 71.6 Bq/kg for Th-232, while K-40 concentrations ranged from 62.3 to 795.1 Bq/kg. The highest values were registered near the power plant and at distances between 6 and 20 km from the stacks, mainly in the prevailing wind direction. The absorbed dose rates were calculated for each sampling location: 13.97-84.00 ηGy/h, while measurements from previous studies carried out in 1993 registered values in the range of 16.6-77.6 ηGy/h. The highest values were registered at locations in the prevailing wind direction (NW-SE). This study has been primarily done to assess the radiation dose rates and exposure to the nearby population in the surroundings of a coal-fired power plant. The results suggest an enhancement or at least an influence in the background radiation due to the coal plant past activities.

Modelling the Contribution of 40K, 232Th and 226Ra to Radiation Dose and Risk from Airborne Discharges of Coal-Fired Power Plants

Coal contains trace elements and naturally occurring radionuclides such as 40K, 232Th, 238U. When coal is burned, minerals, including most of the radionuclides, do not burn and concentrate in the ash several times in comparison with their content in coal. Usually, a small fraction of the fly ash produced (2-5%) is released into the atmosphere. The activities released depend on many factors (concentration in coal, ash content and inorganic matter of the coal, combustion temperature, ratio between bottom and fly ash, filtering system). Therefore, marked differences should be expected between the by-products produced and the amount of activity discharged (per unit of energy produced) from different coal-fired power plants. In fact, the effects of these releases on the environment due to ground deposition have been received some attention but the results from these studies are not unanimous and cannot be understood as a generic conclusion for all coal-fired power plants. In this study, the dispersion modelling of natural radionuclides was carried out to assess the impact of continuous atmospheric releases from a selected coal plant. The natural radioactivity of the coal and the fly ash were measured and the dispersion was modelled by a Gaussian plume estimating the activity concentration at different heights up to a distance of 20 km in several wind directions. External and internal doses (inhalation and ingestion) and the resulting risk were calculated for the population living within 20 km from the coal plant. In average, the effective dose is lower than the ICRP’s limit and the risk is lower than the U.S. EPA’s limit. Therefore, in this situation, the considered exposure does not pose any risk. However, when considering the dispersion in the prevailing wind direction, these values are significant due to an increase of 232Th and 226Ra concentrations in 75% and 44%, respectively.

Radioactivity levels of 238U and 232Th decay series and related dose rates in the surroundings of a coal power plant using high resolution g-spectrometry

Gamma radiations measurements were carried out in the vicinity of a coal-fired power plant located in the southwest coastline of Portugal. Two different gamma detectors were used to assess the environmental radiation within a circular area of 20 km centred in the coal plant: a scintillometer (SPP2 NF, Saphymo) and a high purity germanium detector (HPGe, Canberra). Fifty urban and suburban measurements locations were established within the defined area and two measurements campaigns were carried out. The results of the total gamma radiation ranged from 20.83 to 98.33 counts per second (c.p.s.) for both measurement campaigns and outdoor doses rates ranged from 77.65 to 366.51 Gy/h. Natural emitting nuclides from the U-238 and Th-232 decay series were identified as well as the natural emitting nuclide K-40. The radionuclide concentration from the uranium and thorium series determined by gamma spectrometry ranged from 0.93 to 73.68 Bq/kg, while for K-40 the concentration ranged from 84.14 to 904.38 Bq/kg. The obtained results were used primarily to define the variability in measured environmental radiation and to determine the coal plant’s influence in the measured radiation levels. The highest values were measured at two locations near the power plant and at locations between the distance of 6 and 20 km away from the stacks, mainly in the prevailing wind direction. The results showed an increase or at least an influence from the coal-fired plant operations, both qualitatively and quantitatively.

Fate Hazardous elements in soils surrounding a coal-fired power plant complex

Proceedings of the 13th International UFZ-Deltares Conference on Sustainable Use and Management of Soil, Sediment and Water Resources - 9–12 June 2015 • Copenhagen, Denmark