Classification Performance of Multilayer Perceptrons with Different Risk Functionals

In the present paper we assess the performance of information-theoretic inspired risks functionals in multilayer perceptrons with reference to the two most popular ones, Mean Square Error and Cross-Entropy. The information-theoretic inspired risks, recently proposed, are: HS and HR2 are, respectively, the Shannon and quadratic Rényi entropies of the error; ZED is a risk reflecting the error density at zero errors; EXP is a generalized exponential risk, able to mimic a wide variety of risk functionals, including the information-thoeretic ones. The experiments were carried out with multilayer perceptrons on 35 public real-world datasets. All experiments were performed according to the same protocol. The statistical tests applied to the experimental results showed that the ubiquitous mean square error was the less interesting risk functional to be used by multilayer perceptrons. Namely, mean square error never achieved a significantly better classification performance than competing risks. Cross-entropy and EXP were the risks found by several tests to be significantly better than their competitors. Counts of significantly better and worse risks have also shown the usefulness of HS and HR2 for some datasets.

Age-period-cohort effects in the incidence of hip fractures: political and economic events are coincident with changes in risk

Introduction: Healthcare improvements have allowed prevention but have also increased life expectancy, resulting in more people being at risk. Our aim was to analyse the separate effects of age, period and cohort on incidence rates by sex in Portugal, 2000–2008. Methods: From the National Hospital Discharge Register, we selected admissions (aged ≥49 years) with hip fractures (ICD9-CM, codes 820.x) caused by low/moderate trauma (falls from standing height or less), readmissions and bone cancer cases. We calculated person-years at risk using population data from Statistics Portugal. To identify period and cohort effects for all ages, we used an age–period–cohort model (1-year intervals) followed by generalised additive models with a negative binomial distribution of the observed incidence rates of hip fractures. Results: There were 77,083 hospital admissions (77.4 % women). Incidence rates increased exponentially with age for both sexes (age effect). Incidence rates fell after 2004 for women and were random for men (period effect). There was a general cohort effect similar in both sexes; risk of hip fracture altered from an increasing trend for those born before 1930 to a decreasing trend following that year. Risk alterations (not statistically significant) coincident with major political and economic change in the history of Portugal were observed around birth cohorts 1920 (stable–increasing), 1940 (decreasing–increasing) and 1950 (increasing–decreasing only among women). Conclusions: Hip fracture risk was higher for those born during major economically/politically unstable periods. Although bone quality reflects lifetime exposure, conditions at birth may determine future risk for hip fractures.

Enterprise Risk Management e o seu impacto no desempenho das empresas: Estudo de caso de seis instituições financeiras nacionais

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Auditoria, sob orientação do Mestre Fernando Teixeira Pinto

Energy Resource Management under the Influence of the Weekend Transition Considering an Intensive use of Electric Vehicles

Energy resource scheduling is becoming increasingly important, as the use of distributed resources is intensified and of massive electric vehicle is envisaged. The present paper proposes a methodology for day-ahead energy resource scheduling for smart grids considering the intensive use of distributed generation and Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G). This method considers that the energy resources are managed by a Virtual Power Player (VPP) which established contracts with their owners. It takes into account these contracts, the users' requirements subjected to the VPP, and several discharge price steps. The full AC power flow calculation included in the model takes into account network constraints. The influence of the successive day requirements on the day-ahead optimal solution is discussed and considered in the proposed model. A case study with a 33-bus distribution network and V2G is used to illustrate the good performance of the proposed method.

Vitamin D Intake and Cardiometabolic: Risk Factors in Adolescents

Background: A growing body of research suggests that vitamin D might play an important role in overall health. No data exist on vitamin D intake for the Azorean adolescent population. The purpose of this study was to assess vitamin D intake and investigate a possible association between vitamin D intake and cardiometabolic risk factors in Azorean adolescents. Methods: A cross-sectional school-based study was conducted on 496 adolescents (288 girls) aged 15–18 years from the Azorean Islands, Portugal. Anthropometric measurements (waist circumference and height), blood pressure (systolic), and plasma biomarkers [fasting glucose, insulin, total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TGs)] were measured to assess metabolic risk. Homeostasis model assessment (HOMA), TC-to-HDL-C ratio, and waist-to-height ratio were calculated. For each of these variables, a Z-score was computed by age and sex. A metabolic risk score was constructed by summing the Zscores of all individual risk factors. High risk was considered when the individual had ‡ 1 standard deviation(SD) of this score. Vitamin D intake was assessed with a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. Participants were classified into quartiles of vitamin D intake. Logistic regression was used to determine odds ratios for high cardiometabolic risk scores after adjusting for total energy intake, pubertal stage, fat mass percentage, and cardiorespiratory fitness. Results: Mean (SD) vitamin D intake was 5.8 (6.5) mg/day, and 9.1% of Azorean adolescents achieved the estimated average requirement of vitamin D (10 mg/day or 400 IU). Logistic regression showed that the odds ratio for a high cardiometabolic risk score was 3.35 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28–8.75] for adolescents in the lowest vitamin D intake quartile in comparison with those in the highest vitamin D intake quartile, even after adjustment for confounders. Conclusion: A lower level of vitamin D intake was associated with worse metabolic profile among Azorean adolescents.

Intake of milk, but not total dairy, yogurt, or cheese, is negatively associated with the clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors in adolescents

Epidemiologic studies have reported an inverse association between dairy product consumption and cardiometabolic risk factors in adults, but this relation is relatively unexplored in adolescents. We hypothesized that a higher dairy product intake is associated with lower cardiometabolic risk factor clustering in adolescents. To test this hypothesis, a cross-sectional study was conducted with 494 adolescents aged 15 to 18 years from the Azorean Archipelago, Portugal. We measured fasting glucose, insulin, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, body fat, and cardiorespiratory fitness. We also calculated homeostatic model assessment and total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. For each one of these variables, a z score was computed using age and sex. A cardiometabolic risk score (CMRS) was constructed by summing up the z scores of all individual risk factors. High risk was considered to exist when an individual had at least 1 SD from this score. Diet was evaluated using a food frequency questionnaire, and the intake of total dairy (included milk, yogurt, and cheese), milk, yogurt, and cheese was categorized as low (equal to or below the median of the total sample) or “appropriate” (above the median of the total sample).The association between dairy product intake and CMRS was evaluated using separate logistic regression, and the results were adjusted for confounders. Adolescents with high milk intake had lower CMRS, compared with those with low intake (10.6% vs 18.1%, P = .018). Adolescents with appropriate milk intake were less likely to have high CMRS than those with low milk intake (odds ratio, 0.531; 95% confidence interval, 0.302-0.931). No association was found between CMRS and total dairy, yogurt, and cheese intake. Only milk intake seems to be inversely related to CMRS in adolescents.

Back pain in Portuguese schoolchildren: prevalence and risk factors

2 Centre of Research, Education, Innovation and Intervention In Sport, Faculty of Sport, University of Porto, Portugal Background: Regarding children aged _10 years, only a few international studies were conducted to determine the prevalence of and risk factors for back pain. Although other studies on the older Portuguese children point to prevalence between 17% and 39%, none exists for this specific age-group. Thus, the aim of this study was conducted to establish the prevalence of and risk factors for back pain in schoolchildren aged 7–10 years. Methods: A cross-sectional survey among 637 children was conducted. A self-rating questionnaire was used to verify prevalence and duration of back pain, life habits, school absence, medical treatments or limitation of activities. For posture assessment, photographic records with a bio-photogrammetric analysis were used to obtain data about head, acromion and pelvic alignment, horizontal alignment of the scapulae, vertical alignment of the trunk and vertical body alignment. Results: Postural problems were found in 25.4% of the children, especially in the 8- and 9-year-old groups. Back pain occurs in 12.7% with the highest values among the 7- and 10-year-old children. The probability of back pain increased 7 times when the children presented a history of school absences, 4.3 times when they experienced sleeping difficulties, 4.4 times when school furniture was uncomfortable, 4.7 times if the children perceived an occurrence of parental back pain and 2.5 times when children presented incorrect posture. Conclusions: The combination of school absences, parental pain, sleeping difficulties, inappropriate school furniture and postural deviations at the sagittal and frontal planes seem to prove the multifactorial aetiology of back pain.

Risk Acceptance in the Furniture Sector: Analysis of Acceptance Level and Relevant Influence Factors

Risk acceptance has been broadly discussed in relation to hazardous risk activities and/or technologies. A better understanding of risk acceptance in occupational settings is also important; however, studies on this topic are scarce. It seems important to understand the level of risk that stakeholders consider sufficiently low, how stakeholders form their opinion about risk, and why they adopt a certain attitude toward risk. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to examine risk acceptance in regard to occupational accidents in furniture industries. The safety climate analysis was conducted through the application of the Safety Climate in Wood Industries questionnaire. Judgments about risk acceptance, trust, risk perception, benefit perception, emotions, and moral values were measured. Several models were tested to explain occupational risk acceptance. The results showed that the level of risk acceptance decreased as the risk level increased. High-risk and death scenarios were assessed as unacceptable. Risk perception, emotions, and trust had an important influence on risk acceptance. Safety climate was correlated with risk acceptance and other variables that influence risk acceptance. These results are important for the risk assessment process in terms of defining risk acceptance criteria and strategies to reduce risks.

Safety climate and its relationship with furniture companies’ safety performance and workers’ risk acceptance

This study aims to analyse the relationship between safety climate and the level of risk acceptance, as well as its relationship with workplace safety performance. The sample includes 14 companies and 403 workers. The safety climate assessment was performed by the application of a Safety Climate in Wood Industries questionnaire and safety performance was assessed with a checklist. Judgements about risk acceptance were measured through questionnaires together with four other variables: trust, risk perception, benefit perception and emotion. Safety climate was found to be correlated with workgroup safety performance, and it also plays an important role in workers’ risk acceptance levels. Risk acceptance tends to be lower when safety climate scores of workgroups are high, and subsequently, their safety performance is better. These findings seem to be relevant, as they provide Occupational, Safety and Health practitioners with a better understanding of workers’ risk acceptance levels and of the differences among workgroups.

Sound levels and risk perceptions of music students during classes

It is well recognized that professional musicians are at risk of hearing damage due to the exposure to high sound pressure levels during music playing. However, it is important to recognize that the musicians’ exposure may start early in the course of their training as students in the classroom and at home. Studies regarding sound exposure of music students and their hearing disorders are scarce and do not take into account important influencing variables. Therefore, this study aimed to describe sound level exposures of music students at different music styles, classes, and according to the instrument played. Further, this investigation attempted to analyze the perceptions of students in relation to exposure to loud music and consequent health risks, as well as to characterize preventive behaviors. The results showed that music students are exposed to high sound levels in the course of their academic activity. This exposure is potentiated by practice outside the school and other external activities. Differences were found between music style, instruments, and classes. Tinnitus, hyperacusis, diplacusis, and sound distortion were reported by the students. However, students were not entirely aware of the health risks related to exposure to high sound pressure levels. These findings reflect the importance of starting intervention in relation to noise risk reduction at an early stage, when musicians are commencing their activity as students.

Defining risk acceptance criteria in occupational settings: A case study in the furniture industrial sector

The use of appropriate acceptance criteria in the risk assessment process for occupational accidents is an important issue but often overlooked in the literature, particularly when new risk assessment methods are proposed and discussed. In most cases, there is no information on how or by whom they were defined, or even how companies can adapt them to their own circumstances. Bearing this in mind, this study analysed the problem of the definition of risk acceptance criteria for occupational settings, defining the quantitative acceptance criteria for the specific case study of the Portuguese furniture industrial sector. The key steps to be considered in formulating acceptance criteria were analysed in the literature review. By applying the identified steps, the acceptance criteria for the furniture industrial sector were then defined. The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) for the injury statistics of the industrial sector was identified as the maximum tolerable risk level. The acceptable threshold was defined by adjusting the CDF to the Occupational, Safety & Health (OSH) practitioners’ risk acceptance judgement. Adjustments of acceptance criteria to the companies’ safety cultures were exemplified by adjusting the Burr distribution parameters. An example of a risk matrix was also used to demonstrate the integration of the defined acceptance criteria into a risk metric. This work has provided substantial contributions to the issue of acceptance criteria for occupational accidents, which may be useful in overcoming the practical difficulties faced by authorities, companies and experts.

Autonomous bathymetry for risk assessment with ROAZ robotic surface vehicle

The use of unmanned marine robotic vehicles in bathymetric surveys is discussed. This paper presents recent results in autonomous bathymetric missions with the ROAZ autonomous surface vehicle. In particular, robotic surface vehicles such as ROAZ provide an efficient tool in risk assessment for shallow water environments and water land interface zones as the near surf zone in marine coast. ROAZ is an ocean capable catamaran for distinct oceanographic missions, and with the goal to fill the gap were other hydrographic surveys vehicles/systems are not compiled to operate, like very shallow water rivers and marine coastline surf zones. Therefore, the use of robotic systems for risk assessment is validated through several missions performed either in river scenario (in a very shallow water conditions) and in marine coastlines.

Tornar-se adulto na Casa 5: promover a autonomia individual em Apartamento de Autonomização

Na ausência de uma retaguarda familiar capaz de se constituir como uma rede de segurança e apoio ao desenvolvimento integral de adolescentes com medida de promoção e proteção, o Apartamento de Autonomização oferece um espaço no qual os jovens podem treinar competências que lhes assegurem um futuro autónomo e minimizem os riscos de exclusão social. Esta resposta social propõe-se preparar adolescentes, em transição para a adultez juvenil, para a conquista da responsabilidade de se autoprotegerem, de cuidarem de si próprios e de assumirem a sua identidade perante os outros. Todavia, um projeto de Autonomização de Vida revela-se um desafio, não apenas para os jovens, como também para as famílias e para os profissionais que com eles trabalham. Foram, precisamente, as dificuldades inerentes à Autonomização de Vida em contexto institucional que motivaram o desenvolvimento de um projeto em educação e intervenção social promotor da eficiência dessa resposta social em termos de promoção da autonomia e da transição bem-sucedida para a vida adulta. O presente relatório constitui, assim, um olhar retrospetivo sobre o Projeto “Tornar-se Adulto na Casa 5”, o qual, através da metodologia de Investigação-Ação Participativa, visou alcançar a finalidade proposta pelos participantes: “Promover uma autonomia plena dos jovens da Casa 5, com vista à transição bem-sucedida para a vida adulta após o término da medida de promoção e proteção”. Ainda que os resultados obtidos tenham sido moderadamente satisfatórios, o Projeto terá contribuído para o desenvolvimento de uma consciencialização mais crítica acerca das oportunidades e dos constrangimentos ao desenvolvimento da Autonomia, favorecendo, desejavelmente, a transição para vida adulta após a desinstitucionalização.

IPv6 – Integração, Transição e Segurança

Ao longo dos anos a Internet tornou-se uma ferramenta fundamental para a sociedade e, nos dias de hoje, é praticamente inevitável não usufruir de algumas facilidades proporcionadas pela rede mundial. Devido à sua massificação nos últimos anos, os endereços de IP disponíveis esgotaram-se, pelo que tornou-se necessário a elaboração de uma nova versão do protocolo comunicação, utilizado para suportar todas as comunicações na Internet, o Internet Protocol, versão 6 (IPv6). Apesar da ampla utilização da Internet, a maioria dos seus utilizadores está completamente alheia às questões de segurança, estando por isso exposta a uma diversidade de perigos. O aumento da segurança é também uma das principais missões do IPv6, tendo-se introduzido alguns mecanismos de segurança relevantes. Este trabalho tem como objetivo estudar o IPv6, focando-se especialmente em questões relacionadas com os mecanismos de transição do IPv4 para IPv6 e em aspetos de segurança. Proporcionando uma abordagem teórica ao protocolo e aos conceitos de segurança, este documento apresenta também uma perspetiva mais técnica da implementação do IPv6, pretendendo ser um manual de apoio aos responsáveis pela implementação da versão 6 do IP. Os três métodos de transição, que permitem a atualização do IPv4 para IPv6, são analisados de forma a apoiar a equipa na tomada de decisão sobre qual (ou quais) os métodos de transição a utilizar. Uma parte substancial do trabalho foi dedicada à seleção e estudo de vulnerabilidades que se encontram presentes no IPv6, a forma como são exploradas por parte do atacante, a forma como podem ser classificadas e os processos que diminuem o risco de exposição a essas mesmas vulnerabilidades. Um conjunto de boas práticas na administração da segurança de redes é também apresentada, para melhorar a garantia de que problemas conhecidos não possam ser explorados por utilizadores mal intencionados.

Assessment of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory and analgesic pharmaceuticals in seawaters of North of Portugal: Occurrence and environmental risk

The occurrence of seven pharmaceuticals and two metabolites belonging to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and analgesics therapeutic classes was studied in seawaters. A total of 101 samples covering fourteen beaches and five cities were evaluated in order to assess the spatial distribution of pharmaceuticals among north Portuguese coast. Seawaters were selected in order to embrace different bathing water quality (excellent, good and sufficient). Acetaminophen, ketoprofen and the metabolite hydroxyibuprofen were detected in all the seawater samples at maximum concentrations of 584, 89.7 and 287 ng L− 1, respectively. Carboxyibuprofen had the highest seawater concentration (1227 ng L− 1). The temporal distribution of the selected pharmaceuticals during the bathing season showed that, in general, higher concentrations were detected in August and September. The environmental risk posed by the pharmaceuticals detected in seawaters towards different trophic levels (fish, daphnids and algae) was also assessed. Only diclofenac showed hazard quotients above one for fish, representing a potential risk for aquatic organisms. These results were observed in seawaters classified as excellent bathing water. Additional data is needed in order to support the identification and prioritization of risks posed by pharmaceuticals in marine environment.