25 resultados para Projected models


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Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Gestão das Organizações, Ramo Gestão de Empresas Orientador: Professor Doutor Eduardo Manuel Lopes de Sá e Silva Co-orientador: Mestre Maria de Fátima Mendes Monteiro

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Os modelos de maturidade são instrumentos facilitadores da gestão das organizações, incluindo a gestão da sua função sistemas de informação, não sendo exceção as organizações hospitalares. Neste artigo apresenta-se uma investigação inicial que visa o desenvolvimento de um abrangente modelo de maturidade para a gestão dos sistemas de informação hospitalares. O desenvolvimento deste modelo justifica-se porque os modelos de maturidade atuais no domínio da gestão dos sistemas informação hospitalares ainda se encontram numa fase embrionária de desenvolvimento, sobretudo porque são pouco detalhados, não disponibilizam ferramentas para determinação da maturidade e não apresentam as características dos estágios de maturidade estruturadas por diferentes fatores de influência.

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In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Mat`ern models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

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Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

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This report describes the full research proposal for the project \Balancing and lot-sizing mixed-model lines in the footwear industry", to be developed as part of the master program in Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores - Sistemas de Planeamento Industrial of the Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto. The Portuguese footwear industry is undergoing a period of great development and innovation. The numbers speak for themselves, Portugal footwear exported 71 million pairs of shoes to over 130 countries in 2012. It is a diverse sector, which covers different categories of women, men and children shoes, each of them with various models. New and technologically advanced mixed-model assembly lines are being projected and installed to replace traditional mass assembly lines. Obviously there is a need to manage them conveniently and to improve their operations. This work focuses on balancing and lot-sizing stitching mixed-model lines in a real world environment. For that purpose it will be fundamental to develop and evaluate adequate effective solution methods. Different objectives may be considered, which are relevant for the companies, such as minimizing the number of workstations, and minimizing the makespan, while taking into account a lot of practical restrictions. The solution approaches will be based on approximate methods, namely by resorting to metaheuristics. To show the impact of having different lots in production the initial maximum amount for each lot is changed and a Tabu Search based procedure is used to improve the solutions. The developed approaches will be evaluated and tested. A special attention will be given to the solution of real applied problems. Future work may include the study of other neighbourhood structures related to Tabu Search and the development of ways to speed up the evaluation of neighbours, as well as improving the balancing solution method.