Decision Support Concerning Demand Response Programs Design and Use – A Conceptual Framework and Simulation Tool

Demand response can play a very relevant role in the context of power systems with an intensive use of distributed energy resources, from which renewable intermittent sources are a significant part. More active consumers participation can help improving the system reliability and decrease or defer the required investments. Demand response adequate use and management is even more important in competitive electricity markets. However, experience shows difficulties to make demand response be adequately used in this context, showing the need of research work in this area. The most important difficulties seem to be caused by inadequate business models and by inadequate demand response programs management. This paper contributes to developing methodologies and a computational infrastructure able to provide the involved players with adequate decision support on demand response programs and contracts design and use. The presented work uses DemSi, a demand response simulator that has been developed by the authors to simulate demand response actions and programs, which includes realistic power system simulation. It includes an optimization module for the application of demand response programs and contracts using deterministic and metaheuristic approaches. The proposed methodology is an important improvement in the simulator while providing adequate tools for demand response programs adoption by the involved players. A machine learning method based on clustering and classification techniques, resulting in a rule base concerning DR programs and contracts use, is also used. A case study concerning the use of demand response in an incident situation is presented.

Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations), a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.

An architecture for an effective usage of data mining in business intelligence systems

Business Intelligence (BI) is one emergent area of the Decision Support Systems (DSS) discipline. Over the last years, the evolution in this area has been considerable. Similarly, in the last years, there has been a huge growth and consolidation of the Data Mining (DM) field. DM is being used with success in BI systems, but a truly DM integration with BI is lacking. Therefore, a lack of an effective usage of DM in BI can be found in some BI systems. An architecture that pretends to conduct to an effective usage of DM in BI is presented.

Intelligent decision making in electricity markets: simulated annealing Q-Learning

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simulator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS, a system that provides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behavior. This paper presents a method that aims at enhancing ALBidS competence in endowing market players with adequate strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses a reinforcement learning algorithm to learn from experience how to choose the best from a set of possible actions. These actions are defined accordingly to the most probable points of bidding success. With the purpose of accelerating the convergence process, a simulated annealing based algorithm is included.

Meta-heuristics self-configuration for scheduling

Scheduling resolution requires the intervention of highly skilled human problemsolvers. This is a very hard and challenging domain because current systems are becoming more and more complex, distributed, interconnected and subject to rapidly changing. A natural Autonomic Computing evolution in relation to Current Computing is to provide systems with Self-Managing ability with a minimum human interference. This paper addresses the resolution of complex scheduling problems using cooperative negotiation. A Multi-Agent Autonomic and Meta-heuristics based framework with self-configuring capabilities is proposed.

Tourism mobile and recommendation systems - a state of the art

Recommendation systems have been growing in number for the last fifteen years. To evolve and adapt to the demands of the actual society, many paradigms emerged giving birth to even more paradigms and hybrid approaches. Mobile devices have also been under an incredible growth rate in every business area, and there are already lots of mobile based systems to assist tourists. This explosive growth gave birth to different mobile applications, each having their own advantages and disadvantages. Since recommendation and mobile systems might as well be integrated, this work intends to present the current state of the art in tourism mobile and recommendation systems, as well as to state their advantages and disadvantages.

VirtualECare: group decision supported by idea generation and argumentation

In the last years there has been a considerable increase in the number of people in need of intensive care, especially among the elderly, a phenomenon that is related to population ageing (Brown 2003). However, this is not exclusive of the elderly, as diseases as obesity, diabetes, and blood pressure have been increasing among young adults (Ford and Capewell 2007). As a new fact, it has to be dealt with by the healthcare sector, and particularly by the public one. Thus, the importance of finding new and cost effective ways for healthcare delivery are of particular importance, especially when the patients are not to be detached from their environments (WHO 2004). Following this line of thinking, a VirtualECare Multiagent System is presented in section 2, being our efforts centered on its Group Decision modules (Costa, Neves et al. 2007) (Camarinha-Matos and Afsarmanesh 2001).On the other hand, there has been a growing interest in combining the technological advances in the information society - computing, telecommunications and knowledge – in order to create new methodologies for problem solving, namely those that convey on Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS), based on agent perception. Indeed, the new economy, along with increased competition in today’s complex business environments, takes the companies to seek complementarities, in order to increase competitiveness and reduce risks. Under these scenarios, planning takes a major role in a company life cycle. However, effective planning depends on the generation and analysis of ideas (innovative or not) and, as a result, the idea generation and management processes are crucial. Our objective is to apply the GDSS referred to above to a new area. We believe that the use of GDSS in the healthcare arena will allow professionals to achieve better results in the analysis of one’s Electronically Clinical Profile (ECP). This attainment is vital, regarding the incoming to the market of new drugs and medical practices, which compete in the use of limited resources.

Smart offices and intelligent decision rooms

Nowadays computing technology research is focused on the development of Smart Environments. Following that line of thought several Smart Rooms projects were developed and their appliances are very diversified. The appliances include projects in the context of workplace or everyday living, entertainment, play and education. These appliances envisage to acquire and apply knowledge about the environment state in order to reason about it so as to define a desired state for its inhabitants and perform adaptation adaptation to these desires and therefore improving their involvement and satisfaction with that environment.

Personality, emotion and mood simulation in decision making

In this paper is proposed the integration of personality, emotion and mood aspects for a group of participants in a decision-making negotiation process. The aim is to simulate the participant behavior in that scenario. The personality is modeled through the OCEAN five-factor model of personality (Openness, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness and Negative emotionality). The emotion model applied to the participants is the OCC (Ortony, Clore and Collins) that defines several criteria representing the human emotional structure. In order to integrate personality and emotion is used the pleasure-arousal-dominance (PAD) model of mood.

Six thinking hats for electricity markets simulation: adapting meeting tools to agent decision

In almost all industrialized countries, the energy sector has suffered a severe restructuring that originated a greater complexity in market players’ interactions. The complexity that these changes brought made way for the creation of decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets. MASCEM – “Multiagent Simulator for Competitive Electricity Markets” arose in this context providing a framework for evaluating new rules, new behaviour, and new participants in deregulated electricity markets. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimisation techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. ALBidS is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM it considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches. The Six Thinking Hats is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives. This tool’s goal is to force the thinker to move outside his habitual thinking style. It was developed to be used mainly at meetings in order to “run better meetings, make faster decisions”. This dissertation presents a study about the applicability of the Six Thinking Hats technique in Decision Support Systems, particularly with the multiagent paradigm like the MASCEM simulator. As such this work’s proposal is of a new agent, a meta-learner based on STH technique that organizes several different ALBidS’ strategies and combines the distinct answers into a single one that, expectedly, out-performs any of them.

Adapting Meeting Tools to Agent Decision

Electricity markets are complex environments comprising several negotiation mechanisms. MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a simulator developed to allow deep studies of the interactions between the players that take part in the electricity market negotiations. ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM it considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches. The Six Thinking Hats is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives. This paper aims to complement ALBidS strategies usage by MASCEM players, providing, through the Six Thinking Hats group decision technique, a means to combine them and take advantages from their different perspectives. The combination of the different proposals resulting from ALBidS’ strategies is performed through the application of a Genetic Algorithm, resulting in an evolutionary learning approach.

Decision support tool for Virtual Power Players: Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization applied to Day-ahead Vehicle-To-Grid Scheduling

This paper presents a decision support tool methodology to help virtual power players (VPPs) in the Smart Grid (SGs) context to solve the day-ahead energy resource scheduling considering the intensive use of Distributed Generation (DG) and Vehicle-To-Grid (V2G). The main focus is the application of a new hybrid method combing a particle swarm approach and a deterministic technique based on mixedinteger linear programming (MILP) to solve the day-ahead scheduling minimizing total operation costs from the aggregator point of view. A realistic mathematical formulation, considering the electric network constraints and V2G charging and discharging efficiencies is presented. Full AC power flow calculation is included in the hybrid method to allow taking into account the network constraints. A case study with a 33-bus distribution network and 1800 V2G resources is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

Enhancing Agent Mediated Electronic Markets with Ontology Matching Services and Social Network Support

Os Mercados Eletrónicos atingiram uma complexidade e nível de sofisticação tão elevados, que tornaram inadequados os modelos de software convencionais. Estes mercados são caracterizados por serem abertos, dinâmicos e competitivos, e constituídos por várias entidades independentes e heterogéneas. Tais entidades desempenham os seus papéis de forma autónoma, seguindo os seus objetivos, reagindo às ocorrências do ambiente em que se inserem e interagindo umas com as outras. Esta realidade levou a que existisse por parte da comunidade científica um especial interesse no estudo da negociação automática executada por agentes de software [Zhang et al., 2011]. No entanto, a diversidade dos atores envolvidos pode levar à existência de diferentes conceptualizações das suas necessidades e capacidades dando origem a incompatibilidades semânticas, que podem prejudicar a negociação e impedir a ocorrência de transações que satisfaçam as partes envolvidas. Os novos mercados devem, assim, possuir mecanismos que lhes permitam exibir novas capacidades, nomeadamente a capacidade de auxiliar na comunicação entre os diferentes agentes. Pelo que, é defendido neste trabalho que os mercados devem oferecer serviços de ontologias que permitam facilitar a interoperabilidade entre os agentes. No entanto, os humanos tendem a ser relutantes em aceitar a conceptualização de outros, a não ser que sejam convencidos de que poderão conseguir um bom negócio. Neste contexto, a aplicação e exploração de relações capturadas em redes sociais pode resultar no estabelecimento de relações de confiança entre vendedores e consumidores, e ao mesmo tempo, conduzir a um aumento da eficiência da negociação e consequentemente na satisfação das partes envolvidas. O sistema AEMOS é uma plataforma de comércio eletrónico baseada em agentes que inclui serviços de ontologias, mais especificamente, serviços de alinhamento de ontologias, incluindo a recomendação de possíveis alinhamentos entre as ontologias dos parceiros de negociação. Este sistema inclui também uma componente baseada numa rede social, que é construída aplicando técnicas de análise de redes socias sobre informação recolhida pelo mercado, e que permite melhorar a recomendação de alinhamentos e auxiliar os agentes na sua escolha. Neste trabalho são apresentados o desenvolvimento e implementação do sistema AEMOS, mais concretamente: • É proposto um novo modelo para comércio eletrónico baseado em agentes que disponibiliza serviços de ontologias; • Adicionalmente propõem-se o uso de redes sociais emergentes para captar e explorar informação sobre relações entre os diferentes parceiros de negócio; • É definida e implementada uma componente de serviços de ontologias que é capaz de: • o Sugerir alinhamentos entre ontologias para pares de agentes; • o Traduzir mensagens escritas de acordo com uma ontologia em mensagens escritas de acordo com outra, utilizando alinhamentos previamente aprovados; • o Melhorar os seus próprios serviços recorrendo às funcionalidades disponibilizadas pela componente de redes sociais; • É definida e implementada uma componente de redes sociais que: • o É capaz de construir e gerir um grafo de relações de proximidade entre agentes, e de relações de adequação de alinhamentos a agentes, tendo em conta os perfis, comportamento e interação dos agentes, bem como a cobertura e utilização dos alinhamentos; • o Explora e adapta técnicas e algoritmos de análise de redes sociais às várias fases dos processos do mercado eletrónico. A implementação e experimentação do modelo proposto demonstra como a colaboração entre os diferentes agentes pode ser vantajosa na melhoria do desempenho do sistema e como a inclusão e combinação de serviços de ontologias e redes sociais se reflete na eficiência da negociação de transações e na dinâmica do mercado como um todo.

Self-organization for scheduling in agile manufacturing

Agility refers to the manufacturing system ability to rapidly adapt to market and environmental changes in efficient and cost-effective ways. This paper addresses the development of self-organization methods to enhance the operations of a scheduling system, by integrating scheduling system, configuration and optimization into a single autonomic process requiring minimal manual intervention to increase productivity and effectiveness while minimizing complexity for users. We intend to conceptualize real manufacturing systems as interacting autonomous entities in order to build future Decision Support Systems (DSS) for Scheduling in agile manufacturing environments.

User modeling and recommendation strategies for tourism

Mestrado em Engenharia Informática