Integrated biomarker responses of an estuarine invertebrate to high abiotic stress and decreased metal contamination

An integrated chemical-biological effects monitoring was performed in 2010 and 2012 in two NW Iberian estuaries under different anthropogenic pressure. One is low impacted and the other is contaminated by metals. The aim was to verify the usefulness of a multibiomarker approach, using Carcinus maenas as bioindicator species, to reflect diminishing environmental contamination and improved health status under abiotic variation. Sampling sites were assessed for metal levels in sediments and C. maenas, water abiotic factors and biomarkers (neurotoxicity, energy metabolism, biotransformation, anti-oxidant defences, oxidative damage). High inter-annual and seasonal abiotic variation was observed. Metal levels in sediments and crab tissues were markedly higher in 2010 than in 2012 in the contaminated estuary. Biomarkers indicated differences between the study sites and seasons and an improvement of effects measured in C. maenas from the polluted estuary in 2012. Integrated Biomarker Response (IBR) index depicted sites with higher stress levels whereas Principal Component Analysis (PCA) showed associations between biomarker responses and environmental variables. The multibiomarker approach and integrated assessments proved to be useful to the early diagnosis of remediation measures in impacted sites.

A estruturação dos determinantes relevantes no processo de decisão do investimento direto estrangeiro em Portugal e em Espanha

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação do Dr. Luís Pereira Gomes

Desenvolvimento de um modelo de previsão de preços no mercado ibérico de eletricidade

Com este trabalho pretende-se efetuar o levantamento e análise dos fatores que estão na base da volatilidade do preço da energia elétrica no mercado ibérico de energia. Posteriormente à definição dos potenciais métodos utilizados na previsão do preço da energia elétrica, é desenvolvido um modelo capaz de prever os preços do mercado de energia para um horizonte de vários períodos temporais (trimestral, mensal, semanal e diário). Por fim são comparados os resultados dos modelos aplicados, tendo como base a análise qualitativa e quantitativa da evolução das respetivas previsões, bem como a análise estatística obtida em cada um deles.

Estudo da importância do transporte ferroviário de mercadorias no Eixo Leixões- Salamanca

A evolução dos transportes de mercadorias, em Portugal e na União Europeia, assume uma enorme repercussão na economia global, de modo que a combinação dos vários modos de transporte, com vista à obtenção de ganhos ao nível da eficiência, adquire extrema importância. Os programas europeus de apoio aos transportes, enquadrados na rede transeuropeia de transportes e plataformas logísticas, também contribuem para a otimização do transporte de mercadorias. A importância do transporte ferroviário de mercadorias no eixo Leixões- Salamanca, nomeadamente para as empresas exportadoras e importadoras da região norte e centro, que utilizam meios alternativos ao ferroviário, constitui o principal objetivo desta dissertação. A revisão bibliográfica inclui uma abordagem aos transportes de mercadorias em geral e de forma mais aprofundada aos modos ferroviário e rodoviário na península ibérica, passando pela logística, bem como pela integração de modos: intermodalidade e multimodalidade na rede europeia de transportes e ainda a referência aos portos secos e às plataformas logísticas. Isto permite caraterizar as diferentes empresas operadoras do setor dos transportes de mercadorias e os produtos transacionados, assim como enumerar vantagens e/ou desvantagens do meio de transporte ferroviário face a outros meios, mais concretamente no eixo alvo deste estudo. A metodologia utilizada consiste na análise de informação proveniente de fontes secundárias havendo lugar a uma referência mais detalhada sobre as plataformas logísticas de Leixões e Salamanca, o eixo E-80, o corredor ferroviário nº4 e os programas europeus promotores da eficiência no transporte ferroviário de mercadorias: Marathon, Ferremed e Marco Polo. Para a recolha de informação primária o instrumento adotado foi a entrevista semiestruturada, efetuada a dois representantes da empresa CP-Carga e a um representante da empresa KLog, ambas as empresas ligadas ao setor dos transportes e logística. A análise e tratamento de toda a informação recolhida possibilitam, desde logo, evidenciar as potencialidades do eixo Leixões-Salamanca no que se refere ao transporte ferroviário de mercadorias, delinear recomendações para a sua otimização, bem como efetuar uma análise SWOT. As considerações finais revelam que é imperativo adotar medidas, de forma integrada, para que o seu efeito na potenciação do transporte ferroviário de mercadorias, não só no eixo Leixões-Salamanca, mas também a nível europeu, se afirme como uma verdadeira alternativa a outros modos, particularmente ao domínio rodoviário.

Virtual Power Players Internal Negotiation and Management in MASCEM

Electricity Markets are not only a new reality but an evolving one as the involved players and rules change at a relatively high rate. Multi-agent simulation combined with Artificial Intelligence techniques may result in very helpful sophisticated tools. This paper presents a new methodology for the management of coalitions in electricity markets. This approach is tested using the multi-agent market simulator MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), taking advantage of its ability to provide the means to model and simulate Virtual Power Players (VPP). VPPs are represented as coalitions of agents, with the capability of negotiating both in the market and internally, with their members in order to combine and manage their individual specific characteristics and goals, with the strategy and objectives of the VPP itself. A case study using real data from the Iberian Electricity Market is performed to validate and illustrate the proposed approach.

Strategic Bidding for Electricity Markets Negotiation Using Support Vector Machines

Energy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which simulates the electricity markets environment. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from the market context. This paper presents the application of a Support Vector Machines (SVM) based approach to provide decision support to electricity market players. This strategy is tested and validated by being included in ALBidS and then compared with the application of an Artificial Neural Network, originating promising results. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from MIBEL - Iberian market operator.

Particle Swarm Optimization of Electricity Market Negotiating Players Portfolio

Energy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which performs realistic simulations of the electricity markets. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from each market context. However, it is still necessary to adequately optimize the players’ portfolio investment. For this purpose, this paper proposes a market portfolio optimization method, based on particle swarm optimization, which provides the best investment profile for a market player, considering different market opportunities (bilateral negotiation, market sessions, and operation in different markets) and the negotiation context such as the peak and off-peak periods of the day, the type of day (business day, weekend, holiday, etc.) and most important, the renewable based distributed generation forecast. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from the Iberian operator – MIBEL.

Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Electricity Markets Portfolio Optimization using a Particle Swarm Approach

Energy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which simulates the electricity markets. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from the market context. However, it is still necessary to adequately optimize the player’s portfolio investment. For this purpose, this paper proposes a market portfolio optimization method, based on particle swarm optimization, which provides the best investment profile for a market player, considering the different markets the player is acting on in each moment, and depending on different contexts of negotiation, such as the peak and offpeak periods of the day, and the type of day (business day, weekend, holiday, etc.). The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from the Iberian operator – OMIE.

Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations), a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.