Strategic bidding in electricity markets: an agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Towards network-on-chip agreement protocols

Demands for functionality enhancements, cost reductions and power savings clearly suggest the introduction of multiand many-core platforms in real-time embedded systems. However, when compared to uni-core platforms, the manycores experience additional problems, namely the lack of scalable coherence mechanisms and the necessity to perform migrations. These problems have to be addressed before such systems can be considered for integration into the realtime embedded domain. We have devised several agreement protocols which solve some of the aforementioned issues. The protocols allow the applications to plan and organise their future executions both temporally and spatially (i.e. when and where the next job will be executed). Decisions can be driven by several factors, e.g. load balancing, energy savings and thermal issues. All presented protocols are analytically described, with the particular emphasis on their respective real-time behaviours and worst-case performance. The underlying assumptions are based on the multi-kernel model and the message-passing paradigm, which constitutes the communication between the interacting instances.

Complex evolution of a multi-particle system

This paper studies a discrete dynamical system of interacting particles that evolve by interacting among them. The computational model is an abstraction of the natural world, and real systems can range from the huge cosmological scale down to the scale of biological cell, or even molecules. Different conditions for the system evolution are tested. The emerging patterns are analysed by means of fractal dimension and entropy measures. It is observed that the population of particles evolves towards geometrical objects with a fractal nature. Moreover, the time signature of the entropy can be interpreted at the light of complex dynamical systems.

Fractional dynamics in financial indexes

The goal of this study is the analysis of the dynamical properties of financial data series from 32 worldwide stock market indices during the period 2000–2009 at a daily time horizon. Stock market indices are examples of complex interacting systems for which a huge amount of data exists. The methods and algorithms that have been explored for the description of physical phenomena become an effective background in the analysis of economical data. In this perspective are applied the classical concepts of signal analysis, Fourier transform and methods of fractional calculus. The results reveal classification patterns typical of fractional dynamical systems.

Analysis of financial data series using fractional Fourier transform and multidimensional scaling

The goal of this study is the analysis of the dynamical properties of financial data series from worldwide stock market indexes during the period 2000–2009. We analyze, under a regional criterium, ten main indexes at a daily time horizon. The methods and algorithms that have been explored for the description of dynamical phenomena become an effective background in the analysis of economical data. We start by applying the classical concepts of signal analysis, fractional Fourier transform, and methods of fractional calculus. In a second phase we adopt the multidimensional scaling approach. Stock market indexes are examples of complex interacting systems for which a huge amount of data exists. Therefore, these indexes, viewed from a different perspectives, lead to new classification patterns.

A sensor classification strategy for robotic manipulators

In practice the robotic manipulators present some degree of unwanted vibrations. The advent of lightweight arm manipulators, mainly in the aerospace industry, where weight is an important issue, leads to the problem of intense vibrations. On the other hand, robots interacting with the environment often generate impacts that propagate through the mechanical structure and produce also vibrations. In order to analyze these phenomena a robot signal acquisition system was developed. The manipulator motion produces vibrations, either from the structural modes or from endeffector impacts. The instrumentation system acquires signals from several sensors that capture the joint positions, mass accelerations, forces and moments, and electrical currents in the motors. Afterwards, an analysis package, running off-line, reads the data recorded by the acquisition system and extracts the signal characteristics. Due to the multiplicity of sensors, the data obtained can be redundant because the same type of information may be seen by two or more sensors. Because of the price of the sensors, this aspect can be considered in order to reduce the cost of the system. On the other hand, the placement of the sensors is an important issue in order to obtain the suitable signals of the vibration phenomenon. Moreover, the study of these issues can help in the design optimization of the acquisition system. In this line of thought a sensor classification scheme is presented. Several authors have addressed the subject of the sensor classification scheme. White (White, 1987) presents a flexible and comprehensive categorizing scheme that is useful for describing and comparing sensors. The author organizes the sensors according to several aspects: measurands, technological aspects, detection means, conversion phenomena, sensor materials and fields of application. Michahelles and Schiele (Michahelles & Schiele, 2003) systematize the use of sensor technology. They identified several dimensions of sensing that represent the sensing goals for physical interaction. A conceptual framework is introduced that allows categorizing existing sensors and evaluates their utility in various applications. This framework not only guides application designers for choosing meaningful sensor subsets, but also can inspire new systems and leads to the evaluation of existing applications. Today’s technology offers a wide variety of sensors. In order to use all the data from the diversity of sensors a framework of integration is needed. Sensor fusion, fuzzy logic, and neural networks are often mentioned when dealing with problem of combing information from several sensors to get a more general picture of a given situation. The study of data fusion has been receiving considerable attention (Esteban et al., 2005; Luo & Kay, 1990). A survey of the state of the art in sensor fusion for robotics can be found in (Hackett & Shah, 1990). Henderson and Shilcrat (Henderson & Shilcrat, 1984) introduced the concept of logic sensor that defines an abstract specification of the sensors to integrate in a multisensor system. The recent developments of micro electro mechanical sensors (MEMS) with unwired communication capabilities allow a sensor network with interesting capacity. This technology was applied in several applications (Arampatzis & Manesis, 2005), including robotics. Cheekiralla and Engels (Cheekiralla & Engels, 2005) propose a classification of the unwired sensor networks according to its functionalities and properties. This paper presents a development of a sensor classification scheme based on the frequency spectrum of the signals and on a statistical metrics. Bearing these ideas in mind, this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes briefly the robotic system enhanced with the instrumentation setup. Section 3 presents the experimental results. Finally, section 4 draws the main conclusions and points out future work.

Particle swarm design of digital circuits

Swarm Intelligence (SI) is the property of a system whereby the collective behaviors of (unsophisticated) agents interacting locally with their environment cause coherent functional global patterns to emerge. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is a form of SI, and a population-based search algorithm that is initialized with a population of random solutions, called particles. These particles are flying through hyperspace and have two essential reasoning capabilities: their memory of their own best position and knowledge of the swarm's best position. In a PSO scheme each particle flies through the search space with a velocity that is adjusted dynamically according with its historical behavior. Therefore, the particles have a tendency to fly towards the best search area along the search process. This work proposes a PSO based algorithm for logic circuit synthesis. The results show the statistical characteristics of this algorithm with respect to number of generations required to achieve the solutions. It is also presented a comparison with other two Evolutionary Algorithms, namely Genetic and Memetic Algorithms.

Interoperability on e-learning 2.0: the PEACE case study

The confluence of education with the evolution of technology boosted the paradigm shift of the face-to-face learning to distance learning. In this scenario e-Learning plays an essential role as a facilitator of the teaching/learning process. However new demands associated with the new Web paradigm require that existent e-Learning environments characterized mostly by monolithic systems begin interacting with new specialized services. In this decentralized scenario the definition of a strategy of interoperability is the cornerstone to ensure the standardization communication among systems. This paper presents a definition of an interoperability strategy for an e-Learning environment at our School (ESEIG) called PEACE – Project for ESEIG Academic Content Environment. This new interoperability model relies on the application of several coordination and integration standards on several services, controlled by teachers and students, and included in the PEACE environment such as social networks, repositories, libraries, e-portfolios, intelligent tutors, recommendation systems and virtual classrooms.

Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: A framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. This paper presents a methodology to provide decision support to electricity market negotiating players. This model allows integrating different strategic approaches for electricity market negotiations, and choosing the most appropriate one at each time, for each different negotiation context. This methodology is integrated in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System) – a multiagent system that provides decision support to MASCEM's negotiating agents so that they can properly achieve their goals. ALBidS uses artificial intelligence methodologies and data analysis algorithms to provide effective adaptive learning capabilities to such negotiating entities. The main contribution is provided by a methodology that combines several distinct strategies to build actions proposals, so that the best can be chosen at each time, depending on the context and simulation circumstances. The choosing process includes reinforcement learning algorithms, a mechanism for negotiating contexts analysis, a mechanism for the management of the efficiency/effectiveness balance of the system, and a mechanism for competitor players' profiles definition.

Mitochondria are the main source and one of the targets of Pb (lead)-induced oxidative stress in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae

The yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae is a useful model organism for studying lead (Pb) toxicity. Yeast cells of a laboratory S. cerevisiae strain (WT strain) were incubated with Pb concentrations up to 1,000 μmol/l for 3 h. Cells exposed to Pb lost proliferation capacity without damage to the cell membrane, and they accumulated intracellular superoxide anion (O2 .−) and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2). The involvement of the mitochondrial electron transport chain (ETC) in the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) induced by Pb was evaluated. For this purpose, an isogenic derivative ρ0 strain, lacking mitochondrial DNA, was used. The ρ0 strain, without respiratory competence, displayed a lower intracellular ROS accumulation and a higher resistance to Pb compared to the WT strain. The kinetic study of ROS generation in yeast cells exposed to Pb showed that the production of O2 .− precedes the accumulation of H2O2, which is compatible with the leakage of electrons from the mitochondrial ETC. Yeast cells exposed to Pb displayed mutations at the mitochondrial DNA level. This is most likely a consequence of oxidative stress. In conclusion, mitochondria are an important source of Pb-induced ROS and, simultaneously, one of the targets of its toxicity.

Stochastic Framework for Strategic Decision-making of Load-serving Entities for Day-ahead Market

The deregulation of electricity markets has diversified the range of financial transaction modes between independent system operator (ISO), generation companies (GENCO) and load-serving entities (LSE) as the main interacting players of a day-ahead market (DAM). LSEs sell electricity to end-users and retail customers. The LSE that owns distributed generation (DG) or energy storage units can supply part of its serving loads when the nodal price of electricity rises. This opportunity stimulates them to have storage or generation facilities at the buses with higher locational marginal prices (LMP). The short-term advantage of this model is reducing the risk of financial losses for LSEs in DAMs and its long-term benefit for the LSEs and the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand. This model also enables the LSEs to manage the financial risks with a stochastic programming framework.

Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Fatores determinantes na escolha do consumidor

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Marketing Digital, sob orientação da professora Mestre Anabela Ribeiro

Timing Analysis of Fixed Priority SelfSuspending Sporadic Tasks

27th Euromicro Conference on Real-Time Systems (ECRTS 2015), Lund, Sweden.

Dynamical Analysis of Non-Repetitive Trajectories in Robotic Manipulation

A new method for the study and optimization of manu«ipulator trajectories is developed. The novel feature resides on the modeling formulation. Standard system desciptions are based on a set of differential equations which, in general, require laborious computations and may be difficult to analyze. Moreover, the derived algorithms are suited to "deterministic" tasks, such as those appearing in a repetitivework, and are not well adapted to a "random" operation that occurs in intelligent systems interacting with a non-structured and changing environment. These facts motivate the development of alternative models based on distinct concepts. The proposed embedding of statistics and Fourier trasnform gives a new perspective towards the calculation and optimization of the robot trajectories in manipulating tasks.