ANN based day-ahead ancillary services forecast for electricity market simulation

Adequate decision support tools are required by electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services (AS) represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. Based on the ancillary services forecasting, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead ancillary services markets. For this reason, ancillary services market simulation is being included in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator that can be used by market players to test and enhance their bidding strategies. The paper presents the methodology used to undertake ancillary services forecasting, based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach. ANNs are used to day-ahead prediction of non-spinning reserve (NS), regulation-up (RU), and regulation down (RD). Spinning reserve (SR) is mentioned as past work for comparative analysis. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

Ancillary services market clearing simulation: a comparison between deterministic and heuristic methods

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment requires access to an adequate decision support tool, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. For this, decision support tool must include ancillary market simulation. This paper proposes two different methods (Linear Programming and Genetic Algorithm approaches) for ancillary services dispatch. The methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A test case based on California Independent System Operator (CAISO) data concerning the dispatch of Regulation Down, Regulation Up, Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve services is included in this paper.

Market impact of international sporting and cultural events

We study market reaction to the announcements of the selected country hosting the Summer and Winter Olympic Games, the World Football Cup, the European Football Cup and World and Specialized Exhibitions. We generalize previous results analyzing a large number and different types of mega-events, evaluate the effects for winning and losing countries, investigate the determinants of the observed market reaction and control for the ex ante probability of a country being a successful bidder. Average abnormal returns measured at the announcement date and around the event are not significantly different from zero. Further, we find no evidence supporting that industries, that a priori were more likely to extract direct benefits from the event, observe positive significant effects. Yet, when we control for anticipation, the stock price reactions around the announcements are significant.

Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market

In the proposed model, the independent system operator (ISO) provides the opportunity for maintenance outage rescheduling of generating units before each short-term (ST) time interval. Long-term (LT) scheduling for 1 or 2 years in advance is essential for the ISO and the generation companies (GENCOs) to decide their LT strategies; however, it is not possible to be exactly followed and requires slight adjustments. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium is used to characterize the decision-making procedure of an individual GENCO for ST intervals considering the effective coordination with LT plans. Random inputs, such as parameters of the demand function of loads, hourly demand during the following ST time interval and the expected generation pattern of the rivals, are included as scenarios in the stochastic mixed integer program defined to model the payoff-maximizing objective of a GENCO. Scenario reduction algorithms are used to deal with the computational burden. Two reliability test systems were chosen to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model for the ST decision-making process for future planned outages from the point of view of a GENCO.

Analysis of stock market indices through multidimensional scaling

We propose a graphical method to visualize possible time-varying correlations between fifteen stock market values. The method is useful for observing stable or emerging clusters of stock markets with similar behaviour. The graphs, originated from applying multidimensional scaling techniques (MDS), may also guide the construction of multivariate econometric models.

Stochastic Framework for Strategic Decision-making of Load-serving Entities for Day-ahead Market

The deregulation of electricity markets has diversified the range of financial transaction modes between independent system operator (ISO), generation companies (GENCO) and load-serving entities (LSE) as the main interacting players of a day-ahead market (DAM). LSEs sell electricity to end-users and retail customers. The LSE that owns distributed generation (DG) or energy storage units can supply part of its serving loads when the nodal price of electricity rises. This opportunity stimulates them to have storage or generation facilities at the buses with higher locational marginal prices (LMP). The short-term advantage of this model is reducing the risk of financial losses for LSEs in DAMs and its long-term benefit for the LSEs and the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand. This model also enables the LSEs to manage the financial risks with a stochastic programming framework.

Smart Grid Market Using Joint Energy and Ancillary Services Bids

The power systems operation in the smart grid context increases significantly the complexity of their management. New approaches for ancillary services procurement are essential to ensure the operation of electric power systems with appropriate levels of stability, safety, quality, equity and competitiveness. These approaches should include market mechanisms which allow the participation of small and medium distributed energy resources players in a competitive market environment. In this paper, an energy and ancillary services joint market model used by an aggregator is proposed, considering bids of several types of distributed energy resources. In order to improve economic efficiency in the market, ancillary services cascading market mechanism is also considered in the model. The proposed model is included in MASCEM – a multi-agent system electricity market simulator. A case study considering a distribution network with high penetration of distributed energy resources is presented.

Melhortarifa.pt – simulador de tarifários

Assistimos à queda de um serviço, que em muitos países, figurava como um serviço de um modelo social europeu, passando de um monopólio para um sistema de mercado liberalizado e concorrencial: o mercado energético. (EURO COOP, 2014) Em maio de 2014, o mercado livre chegou a ultrapassar os 2,8 milhões de consumidores, tendo um crescimento face a maio de 2013 de 64%, com uma taxa média mensal de 4,2%. (Entidade Reguladora dos Energéticos - ERSE, 2009). Perante a crescente adesão de consumidores para o mercado liberalizado, e suas possíveis futuras mudanças, e tendo em conta com os potenciais clientes a aderirem, foi proposto então construir a plataforma MelhorTarifa.pt . Apesar da já existência de simuladores, estes demonstram-se a ser pouco intuitivos e a não demonstrar toda a informação que o utilizador pretende bem como não existir uma imagem de marca associada a um apoio à mudança de tarifário, tendo sido estas umas das razões que levaram ao desenvolvimento do MelhorTarifa.pt. O âmbito principal deste trabalho, é fornecer uma plataforma informática grátis, imparcial, com o acréscimo até à data, em relação a outros simuladores, da disponibilização de faturas detalhadas sobre o produto que o cliente pretende adquirir, serviços de consultoria, tudo isto de forma rápida e de simples acesso. Com este trabalho pretende-se também definir o atual estado de arte de simuladores idênticos em Portugal e no estrangeiro, pretendendo-se também dar conhecimento do trabalho desenvolvido para esta dissertação, denominado como MelhorTarifa.pt.

A gestão do risco de liquidez e a concessão de crédito durante os períodos de crise

Dissertação de Mestrado Apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação do Doutor Mário Joel Matos Veiga de Oliveira Queirós.

Analysis of Electricity Market Prices Using Multidimensional Scaling

This paper studies the impact of the energy upon electricity markets using Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). Data from major energy and electricity markets is considered. Several maps produced by MDS are presented and discussed revealing that this method is useful for understanding the correlation between them. Furthermore, the results help electricity markets agents hedging against Market Clearing Price (MCP) volatility.

Cournot model with investments to change the market size

We present a new deterministic dynamical model on the market size of Cournot competitions, based on Nash equilibria of R&D investment strategies to increase the size of the market of the firms at every period of the game. We compute the unique Nash equilibrium for the second subgame and the profit functions for both firms. Adding uncertainty to the R&D investment strategies, we get a new stochastic dynamical model and we analyse the importance of the uncertainty to reverse the initial advantage of one firm with respect to the other.

Processo de cálculo automático de colunas mistas

Este relatório é elaborado no âmbito do estágio curricular no regime de parceria entre o Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto e o gabinete de projetos SE2P – Sociedade de Engenharia, Projetos e Planeamento, Lda. O tema do estágio é o estudo de colunas mistas aço-betão na vertente de projeto, mais concretamente através da criação dum processo de cálculo automático integrado com o modelo estrutural global. Aplicam-se os métodos de dimensionamento dos eurocódigos estruturais na avaliação da segurança dos estados limites. Avaliam-se as propriedades geométricas, determina-se a curva de interação, calcula-se a posição do eixo neutro donde se inferem os estados de tensão em flexão desviada ao nível da secção, necessários às verificações de segurança. O processo de cálculo tem por base uma folha de cálculo desenvolvida em Excel que, com ajuda do Visual Basic for Applications, comunica com o software de modelação e cálculo estrutural Autodesk Robot Professional Analisys. Cria-se fluxos de informação que possibilitam o cálculo iterativo de colunas mistas permitindo ajustar e por esta via otimizar as soluções de dimensionamento. A exportação de relatórios de cálculo detalhados para cada coluna constitui uma mais-valia para gabinetes de engenharia quando comparada com outras soluções de dimensionamento existentes no mercado. A aplicação do processo de cálculo desenvolvido a múltiplas combinações de soluções de colunas mistas permitiu analisar comparativamente os resultados obtidos e a criação de tabelas e ábacos que poderão ser úteis em cenários de pré-dimensionamento e de anteprojeto.