A data-mining based methodology for wind forecasting

In many countries the use of renewable energy is increasing due to the introduction of new energy and environmental policies. Thus, the focus on the efficient integration of renewable energy into electric power systems is becoming extremely important. Several European countries have already achieved high penetration of wind based electricity generation and are gradually evolving towards intensive use of this generation technology. The introduction of wind based generation in power systems poses new challenges for the power system operators. This is mainly due to the variability and uncertainty in weather conditions and, consequently, in the wind based generation. In order to deal with this uncertainty and to improve the power system efficiency, adequate wind forecasting tools must be used. This paper proposes a data-mining-based methodology for very short-term wind forecasting, which is suitable to deal with large real databases. The paper includes a case study based on a real database regarding the last three years of wind speed, and results for wind speed forecasting at 5 minutes intervals.

A data-mining-based methodology for transmission expansion planning

In recent decades, all over the world, competition in the electric power sector has deeply changed the way this sector’s agents play their roles. In most countries, electric process deregulation was conducted in stages, beginning with the clients of higher voltage levels and with larger electricity consumption, and later extended to all electrical consumers. The sector liberalization and the operation of competitive electricity markets were expected to lower prices and improve quality of service, leading to greater consumer satisfaction. Transmission and distribution remain noncompetitive business areas, due to the large infrastructure investments required. However, the industry has yet to clearly establish the best business model for transmission in a competitive environment. After generation, the electricity needs to be delivered to the electrical system nodes where demand requires it, taking into consideration transmission constraints and electrical losses. If the amount of power flowing through a certain line is close to or surpasses the safety limits, then cheap but distant generation might have to be replaced by more expensive closer generation to reduce the exceeded power flows. In a congested area, the optimal price of electricity rises to the marginal cost of the local generation or to the level needed to ration demand to the amount of available electricity. Even without congestion, some power will be lost in the transmission system through heat dissipation, so prices reflect that it is more expensive to supply electricity at the far end of a heavily loaded line than close to an electric power generation. Locational marginal pricing (LMP), resulting from bidding competition, represents electrical and economical values at nodes or in areas that may provide economical indicator signals to the market agents. This article proposes a data-mining-based methodology that helps characterize zonal prices in real power transmission networks. To test our methodology, we used an LMP database from the California Independent System Operator for 2009 to identify economical zones. (CAISO is a nonprofit public benefit corporation charged with operating the majority of California’s high-voltage wholesale power grid.) To group the buses into typical classes that represent a set of buses with the approximate LMP value, we used two-step and k-means clustering algorithms. By analyzing the various LMP components, our goal was to extract knowledge to support the ISO in investment and network-expansion planning.

Power systems reliability calculation based on fuzzy data mining

This paper presents a methodology supported on the data base knowledge discovery process (KDD), in order to find out the failure probability of electrical equipments’, which belong to a real electrical high voltage network. Data Mining (DM) techniques are used to discover a set of outcome failure probability and, therefore, to extract knowledge concerning to the unavailability of the electrical equipments such us power transformers and high-voltages power lines. The framework includes several steps, following the analysis of the real data base, the pre-processing data, the application of DM algorithms, and finally, the interpretation of the discovered knowledge. To validate the proposed methodology, a case study which includes real databases is used. This data have a heavy uncertainty due to climate conditions for this reason it was used fuzzy logic to determine the set of the electrical components failure probabilities in order to reestablish the service. The results reflect an interesting potential of this approach and encourage further research on the topic.

Data mining applications in power systems - case-studies and future trends

Presently power system operation produces huge volumes of data that is still treated in a very limited way. Knowledge discovery and machine learning can make use of these data resulting in relevant knowledge with very positive impact. In the context of competitive electricity markets these data is of even higher value making clear the trend to make data mining techniques application in power systems more relevant. This paper presents two cases based on real data, showing the importance of the use of data mining for supporting demand response and for supporting player strategic behavior.

Cyber-ambient intelligent training of operators in power systems control centres

Cyber-Physical Systems and Ambient Intelligence are two of the most important and emerging paradigms of our days. The introduction of renewable sources gave origin to a completely different dimension of the distribution generation problem. On the other hand, Electricity Markets introduced a different dimension in the complexity, the economic dimension. Our goal is to study how to proceed with the Intelligent Training of Operators in Power Systems Control Centres, considering the new reality of Renewable Sources, Distributed Generation, and Electricity Markets, under the emerging paradigms of Cyber-Physical Systems and Ambient Intelligence. We propose Intelligent Tutoring Systems as the approach to deal with the intelligent training of operators in these new circumstances.

Optimal dispatch with reactive power compensation by Genetic Algorithm

This paper presents a Unit Commitment model with reactive power compensation that has been solved by Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization techniques. The GA has been developed a computational tools programmed/coded in MATLAB. The main objective is to find the best generations scheduling whose active power losses are minimal and the reactive power to be compensated, subjected to the power system technical constraints. Those are: full AC power flow equations, active and reactive power generation constraints. All constraints that have been represented in the objective function are weighted with a penalty factors. The IEEE 14-bus system has been used as test case to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Results and conclusions are dully drawn.

A probabilistic methodology for distributed generation location in isolated electrical service area

Distributed generation unlike centralized electrical generation aims to generate electrical energy on small scale as near as possible to load centers, interchanging electric power with the network. This work presents a probabilistic methodology conceived to assist the electric system planning engineers in the selection of the distributed generation location, taking into account the hourly load changes or the daily load cycle. The hourly load centers, for each of the different hourly load scenarios, are calculated deterministically. These location points, properly weighted according to their load magnitude, are used to calculate the best fit probability distribution. This distribution is used to determine the maximum likelihood perimeter of the area where each source distributed generation point should preferably be located by the planning engineers. This takes into account, for example, the availability and the cost of the land lots, which are factors of special relevance in urban areas, as well as several obstacles important for the final selection of the candidates of the distributed generation points. The proposed methodology has been applied to a real case, assuming three different bivariate probability distributions: the Gaussian distribution, a bivariate version of Freund’s exponential distribution and the Weibull probability distribution. The methodology algorithm has been programmed in MATLAB. Results are presented and discussed for the application of the methodology to a realistic case and demonstrate the ability of the proposed methodology for efficiently handling the determination of the best location of the distributed generation and their corresponding distribution networks.

Demand response management in power systems using a particle swarm optimization approach

Competitive electricity markets have arisen as a result of power-sector restructuration and power-system deregulation. The players participating in competitive electricity markets must define strategies and make decisions using all the available information and business opportunities.

Maximizing the Social Welfare of Virtual Power Players Operation in Case of Excessive Wind Power

The integration of growing amounts of distributed generation in power systems, namely at distribution networks level, has been fostered by energy policies in several countries around the world, including in Europe. This intensive integration of distributed, non-dispatchable, and natural sources based generation (including wind power) has caused several changes in the operation and planning of power systems and of electricity markets. Sometimes the available non-dispatchable generation is higher than the demand. This generation must be used; otherwise it is wasted if not stored or used to supply additional demand. New policies and market rules, as well as new players, are needed in order to competitively integrate all the resources. The methodology proposed in this paper aims at the maximization of the social welfare in a distribution network operated by a virtual power player that aggregates and manages the available energy resources. When facing a situation of excessive non-dispatchable generation, including wind power, real time pricing is applied in order to induce the increase of consumption so that wind curtailment is minimized. This method is especially useful when actual and day-ahead resources forecast differ significantly. The distribution network characteristics and concerns are addressed by including the network constraints in the optimization model. The proposed methodology has been implemented in GAMS optimization tool and its application is illustrated in this paper using a real 937-bus distribution network with 20.310 consumers and 548 distributed generators, some of them non-dispatchable and with must take contracts. The implemented scenario corresponds to a real day in Portuguese power system.

A Data Mining Framework for Electric Load Profiling

This paper consists in the characterization of medium voltage (MV) electric power consumers based on a data clustering approach. It is intended to identify typical load profiles by selecting the best partition of a power consumption database among a pool of data partitions produced by several clustering algorithms. The best partition is selected using several cluster validity indices. These methods are intended to be used in a smart grid environment to extract useful knowledge about customers’ behavior. The data-mining-based methodology presented throughout the paper consists in several steps, namely the pre-processing data phase, clustering algorithms application and the evaluation of the quality of the partitions. To validate our approach, a case study with a real database of 1.022 MV consumers was used.

Smart Grid Market Using Joint Energy and Ancillary Services Bids

The power systems operation in the smart grid context increases significantly the complexity of their management. New approaches for ancillary services procurement are essential to ensure the operation of electric power systems with appropriate levels of stability, safety, quality, equity and competitiveness. These approaches should include market mechanisms which allow the participation of small and medium distributed energy resources players in a competitive market environment. In this paper, an energy and ancillary services joint market model used by an aggregator is proposed, considering bids of several types of distributed energy resources. In order to improve economic efficiency in the market, ancillary services cascading market mechanism is also considered in the model. The proposed model is included in MASCEM – a multi-agent system electricity market simulator. A case study considering a distribution network with high penetration of distributed energy resources is presented.

Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Load Profiling

Load forecasting has gradually becoming a major field of research in electricity industry. Therefore, Load forecasting is extremely important for the electric sector under deregulated environment as it provides a useful support to the power system management. Accurate power load forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of a utility company, and they have received increasing attention from researches of this field study. Many mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. This work aims to develop and implement a load forecasting method for short-term load forecasting (STLF), based on Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and an artificial neural network (ANN). One of the main contributions of this paper is the application of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approach to the forecasting problem and, as an evaluation of the past forecasting work, data mining techniques are also applied to short-term Load forecasting. Both ANN and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approaches are compared and evaluated.

MASCEM Restructuring: Ontologies For Scenarios Generation in Power Systems Simulators

The electricity market restructuring, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in an rising complexity in power systems operation. Various power system simulators have been introduced in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex environment. This paper focuses on the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The restructuring of MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), and this system’s integration with MASGriP (Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform), and ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) provide the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A practical example is presented, showing how common simulation scenarios for different simulators, directed to very distinct environments, can be created departing from the proposed ontology.

Dimensionamento do Sistema Híbrido para Alimentação de Energia Elétrica da Escola Rural de Nangade (Cabo Delgado)

Os combustíveis fósseis, como o carvão, o petróleo e o gás, constituem fontes de energia que em breve se esgotarão e que são demasiado caras para serem desperdiçadas pelas centrais elétricas na produção de electricidade. Para além desse facto, existem outros argumentos (sobretudo económicos) que inviabilizam a utilização destas fontes de energia em algumas regiões, abrindo caminho a fontes de energia alternativas (e.g. solar, eólica, biomassa, mini-hídricas, geotérmicas, etc) e preferencialmente com contornos locais. No caso particular de Moçambique, tem-se verificado um interesse crescente por parte do governo e de várias ONGs na promoção do uso de energias alternativas para as zonas onde a energia convencional não chega e não chegará, devido aos custos muito elevados que esse processo acarretaria. Esta dissertação apresenta um estudo aprofundado do dimensionamento dum sistema híbrido de geração de energia elétrica envolvendo gerador FV e grupo eletrogéneo de emergência para a Escola Rural da Nangade, situada no Distrito de Nangade, na Província do Cabo Delgado. São também descritos os diversos componentes e as tecnologias associadas a um sistema deste género, com a inclusão de sistemas inteligentes de controlo de energia com a utilização de inversores bidireccionais (inversores de bateria e carregadores) para sistemas isolados. Os resultados são apresentados de forma a facilitar a aplicação e montagem deste tipo de sistemas in loco. Espera-se que esta dissertação possa servir de base no futuro próximo, para a implementação deste tipo de sistemas para permitir a melhoria da qualidade de ensino através de melhores infraestruturas, democratizando desta forma o acesso à educação para as crianças das zonas rurais das várias províncias de Moçambique. Como as energias renováveis são parte integrante do Sistema Elétrico Nacional, apresenta-se resumidamente, no anexo 17, o “Plano de Desenvolvimento na Área de Energia de Moçambique”.

Energia Solar Fotovoltaica como Fonte Alternativa de Produção de Energia Elétrica em Angola

Neste trabalho é efetuado o dimensionamento de sistemas fotovoltaicos para serem instalados em edificações localizadas em Angola com o objetivo de analisar a produção de energia elétrica através de sistemas fotovoltaicos. Utilizando o software PVsyst na versão 6.3.2 foram dimensionados três sistemas fotovoltaicos, dois sistemas destinados a ser instalados numa residência, um ligado à rede e o outro autónomo e por fim um sistema fotovoltaico ligado à rede para uma instalação industrial. A determinação dos custos de investimento nos três sistemas foi obtida de forma aproximada, tendo como base preços dos equipamentos no mercado Português e considerando os custos de importação de mercadorias no mercado Angolano. Para os sistemas ligados à rede é analisada a rentabilidade financeira do investimento durante o período de vida útil dos módulos fotovoltaicos considerando três cenários distintos. No primeiro cenário o valor da remuneração pela energia vendida pelo produtor é igual ao valor pago pela energia comprada. No segundo e terceiros cenário de análise económica pretende-se encontrar uma tarifa de energia que torne o investimento rentável com um período de amortização de 7 e 12 anos respetivamente.