Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices – a cointegrated VECM analysis

This paper addresses the impact of the CO2 opportunity cost on the wholesale electricity price in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), namely on the Portuguese system, for the period corresponding to the Phase II of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the econometric analysis a vector error correction model (VECM) is specified to estimate both long–run equilibrium relations and short–run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The model is estimated using daily spot market prices and the four commodities prices are jointly modelled as endogenous variables. Moreover, a set of exogenous variables is incorporated in order to account for the electricity demand conditions (temperature) and the electricity generation mix (quantity of electricity traded according the technology used). The outcomes for the Portuguese electricity system suggest that the dynamic pass–through of carbon prices into electricity prices is strongly significant and a long–run elasticity was estimated (equilibrium relation) that is aligned with studies that have been conducted for other markets.

Dynamic global scheduling of parallel real-time tasks

High-level parallel languages offer a simple way for application programmers to specify parallelism in a form that easily scales with problem size, leaving the scheduling of the tasks onto processors to be performed at runtime. Therefore, if the underlying system cannot efficiently execute those applications on the available cores, the benefits will be lost. In this paper, we consider how to schedule highly heterogenous parallel applications that require real-time performance guarantees on multicore processors. The paper proposes a novel scheduling approach that combines the global Earliest Deadline First (EDF) scheduler with a priority-aware work-stealing load balancing scheme, which enables parallel realtime tasks to be executed on more than one processor at a given time instant. Experimental results demonstrate the better scalability and lower scheduling overhead of the proposed approach comparatively to an existing real-time deadline-oriented scheduling class for the Linux kernel.

Combining RTSJ with Fork/Join: a priority-based model

This paper discusses the increased need to support dynamic task-level parallelism in embedded real-time systems and proposes a Java framework that combines the Real-Time Specification for Java (RTSJ) with the Fork/Join (FJ) model, following a fixed priority-based scheduling scheme. Our work intends to support parallel runtimes that will coexist with a wide range of other complex independently developed applications, without any previous knowledge about their real execution requirements, number of parallel sub-tasks, and when those sub-tasks will be generated.

Towards a flexible and dynamic replication control for distributed real-time embedded systems with QoS interdependencies

Replication is a proven concept for increasing the availability of distributed systems. However, actively replicating every software component in distributed embedded systems may not be a feasible approach. Not only the available resources are often limited, but also the imposed overhead could significantly degrade the system's performance. The paper proposes heuristics to dynamically determine which components to replicate based on their significance to the system as a whole, its consequent number of passive replicas, and where to place those replicas in the network. The results show that the proposed heuristics achieve a reasonably higher system's availability than static offline decisions when lower replication ratios are imposed due to resource or cost limitations. The paper introduces a novel approach to coordinate the activation of passive replicas in interdependent distributed environments. The proposed distributed coordination model reduces the complexity of the needed interactions among nodes and is faster to converge to a globally acceptable solution than a traditional centralised approach.

Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar, ainda permanecem questões científicas empíricas sobre a identificação do modelo geral teórico de mercado mais adequado para modelar a difusão das séries. Em quarto lugar, aos reguladores e gestores de risco importa saber se existem mercados persistentes e, por isso, ineficientes, que, portanto, possam produzir retornos anormais. O objetivo do trabalho de investigação da dissertação é duplo. Por um lado, pretende proporcionar conhecimento adicional para o debate da memória de longo prazo, debruçando-se sobre o comportamento das séries diárias de retornos dos principais índices acionistas da EURONEXT. Por outro lado, pretende contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model CAPM, considerando uma medida de risco alternativa capaz de ultrapassar os constrangimentos da hipótese de mercado eficiente EMH na presença de séries financeiras com processos sem incrementos independentes e identicamente distribuídos (i.i.d.). O estudo empírico indica a possibilidade de utilização alternativa das obrigações do tesouro (OT’s) com maturidade de longo prazo no cálculo dos retornos do mercado, dado que o seu comportamento nos mercados de dívida soberana reflete a confiança dos investidores nas condições financeiras dos Estados e mede a forma como avaliam as respetiva economias com base no desempenho da generalidade dos seus ativos. Embora o modelo de difusão de preços definido pelo movimento Browniano geométrico gBm alegue proporcionar um bom ajustamento das séries temporais financeiras, os seus pressupostos de normalidade, estacionariedade e independência das inovações residuais são adulterados pelos dados empíricos analisados. Por isso, na procura de evidências sobre a propriedade de memória longa nos mercados recorre-se à rescaled-range analysis R/S e à detrended fluctuation analysis DFA, sob abordagem do movimento Browniano fracionário fBm, para estimar o expoente Hurst H em relação às séries de dados completas e para calcular o expoente Hurst “local” H t em janelas móveis. Complementarmente, são realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses através do rescaled-range tests R/S , do modified rescaled-range test M - R/S e do fractional differencing test GPH. Em termos de uma conclusão única a partir de todos os métodos sobre a natureza da dependência para o mercado acionista em geral, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos. Isso quer dizer que o grau de memória de longo prazo e, assim, qualquer classificação, depende de cada mercado particular. No entanto, os resultados gerais maioritariamente positivos suportam a presença de memória longa, sob a forma de persistência, nos retornos acionistas da Bélgica, Holanda e Portugal. Isto sugere que estes mercados estão mais sujeitos a maior previsibilidade (“efeito José”), mas também a tendências que podem ser inesperadamente interrompidas por descontinuidades (“efeito Noé”), e, por isso, tendem a ser mais arriscados para negociar. Apesar da evidência de dinâmica fractal ter suporte estatístico fraco, em sintonia com a maior parte dos estudos internacionais, refuta a hipótese de passeio aleatório com incrementos i.i.d., que é a base da EMH na sua forma fraca. Atendendo a isso, propõem-se contributos para aperfeiçoamento do CAPM, através da proposta de uma nova fractal capital market line FCML e de uma nova fractal security market line FSML. A nova proposta sugere que o elemento de risco (para o mercado e para um ativo) seja dado pelo expoente H de Hurst para desfasamentos de longo prazo dos retornos acionistas. O expoente H mede o grau de memória de longo prazo nos índices acionistas, quer quando as séries de retornos seguem um processo i.i.d. não correlacionado, descrito pelo gBm(em que H = 0,5 , confirmando- se a EMH e adequando-se o CAPM), quer quando seguem um processo com dependência estatística, descrito pelo fBm(em que H é diferente de 0,5, rejeitando-se a EMH e desadequando-se o CAPM). A vantagem da FCML e da FSML é que a medida de memória de longo prazo, definida por H, é a referência adequada para traduzir o risco em modelos que possam ser aplicados a séries de dados que sigam processos i.i.d. e processos com dependência não linear. Então, estas formulações contemplam a EMH como um caso particular possível.

Dynamic QoS adaptation of inter- dependent task sets in cooperative embedded systems

Due to the growing complexity and dynamism of many embedded application domains (including consumer electronics, robotics, automotive and telecommunications), it is increasingly difficult to react to load variations and adapt the system's performance in a controlled fashion within an useful and bounded time. This is particularly noticeable when intending to benefit from the full potential of an open distributed cooperating environment, where service characteristics are not known beforehand and tasks may exhibit unrestricted QoS inter-dependencies. This paper proposes a novel anytime adaptive QoS control policy in which the online search for the best set of QoS levels is combined with each user's personal preferences on their services' adaptation behaviour. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the proposed anytime algorithms are able to quickly find a good initial solution and effectively optimise the rate at which the quality of the current solution improves as the algorithms are given more time to run, with a minimum overhead when compared against their traditional versions.

Dynamic adaptation of stability periods for service level agreements

A QoS adaptation to dynamically changing system conditions that takes into consideration the user’s constraints on the stability of service provisioning is presented. The goal is to allow the system to make QoS adaptation decisions in response to fluctuations in task traffic flow, under the control of the user. We pay special attention to the case where monitoring the stability period and resource load variation of Service Level Agreements for different types of services is used to dynamically adapt future stability periods, according to a feedback control scheme. System’s adaptation behaviour can be configured according to a desired confidence level on future resource usage. The viability of the proposed approach is validated by preliminary experiments.

Using a cohesive damage model to predict the tensile behaviour of CFRP single-strap repairs

This work addresses both experimental and numerical analyses regarding the tensile behaviour of CFRP single-strap repairs. Two fundamental geometrical parameters were studied: overlap length and patch thickness. The numerical model used ABAQUS® software and a developed cohesive mixed-mode damage model adequate for ductile adhesives, and implemented within interface finite elements. Stress analyses and strength predictions were carried out. Experimental and numerical comparisons were performed on failure modes, failure load and equivalent stiffness of the repair. Good correlation was found between experimental and numerical results, showing that the proposed model can be successfully applied to bonded joints or repairs.

A flexibility reference model to achieve leagility in virtual organizations

The paper proposes a Flexibility Requirements Model and a Factory Templates Framework to support the dynamic Virtual Organization decision-makers in order to reach effective response to the emergent business opportunities ensuring profitability. Through the construction and analysis of the flexibility requirements model, the network managers can achieve and conceive better strategies to model and breed new dynamic VOs. This paper also presents the leagility concept as a new paradigm fit to equip the network management with a hybrid approach that better tackle the performance challenges imposed by the new and competitive business environments.

Análise de fadiga de uma ponte ferroviária com tabuleiro misto vigado sob ação de tráfego de mercadorias

A presente dissertação centra-se no estudo de fadiga de uma ponte ferroviária com tabuleiro misto vigado pertencente a uma via de transporte de mercadorias. O caso de estudo incide sobre a ponte ferroviária sobre o rio do Sonho, localizada na Estrada de Ferro de Carajás situada no nordeste do Brasil. Nesta linha circulam alguns dos maiores comboios de mercadoria do mundo com cerca de 3.7 km de extensão e com cargas por eixo superiores a 300 kN. Numa primeira fase apresentam-se diversas metodologias de análise da fadiga em pontes ferroviárias metálicas. É também descrita a ferramenta computacional FADBridge, desenvolvida em ambiente MATLAB, e que possibilita o cálculo sistematizado e eficiente do dano de fadiga em detalhes construtivos de acordo com as indicações dos eurocódigos. Em seguida são abordadas as metodologias numéricas utilizadas para a realização das análises dinâmicas do sistema ponte-comboio e os aspetos regulamentares a ter em consideração no dimensionamento de pontes ferroviárias. O modelo numérico de elementos finitos da ponte foi realizado com recurso ao programa ANSYS. Com base neste modelo foram obtidos os parâmetros modais, nomeadamente as frequências naturais e os modos de vibração, tendo sido também analisada a importância do efeito compósito via-tabuleiro e a influência do comportamento não linear do balastro. O estudo do comportamento dinâmico da ponte foi realizado por intermédio de uma metodologia de cargas móveis através da ferramenta computacional Train-Bridge Interaction (TBI). As análises dinâmicas foram efetuadas para a passagem dos comboios reais de mercadorias e de passageiros e para os comboios de fadiga regulamentares. Nestas análises foi estudada a influência dos modos de vibração globais e locais, das configurações de carga dos comboios e do aumento da velocidade de circulação, na resposta dinâmica da ponte. Por último, foi avaliado o comportamento à fadiga de diversos detalhes construtivos para os cenários de tráfego regulamentar e reais. Foi ainda analisada a influência do aumento da velocidade, da configuração de cargas dos comboios e da degradação da estrutura nos valores do dano por fadiga e da respetiva vida residual.

Stochastic Framework for Strategic Decision-making of Load-serving Entities for Day-ahead Market

The deregulation of electricity markets has diversified the range of financial transaction modes between independent system operator (ISO), generation companies (GENCO) and load-serving entities (LSE) as the main interacting players of a day-ahead market (DAM). LSEs sell electricity to end-users and retail customers. The LSE that owns distributed generation (DG) or energy storage units can supply part of its serving loads when the nodal price of electricity rises. This opportunity stimulates them to have storage or generation facilities at the buses with higher locational marginal prices (LMP). The short-term advantage of this model is reducing the risk of financial losses for LSEs in DAMs and its long-term benefit for the LSEs and the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand. This model also enables the LSEs to manage the financial risks with a stochastic programming framework.

Stochastic Short-term Incentive-based Demand Response Scheduling of Load-serving Entities

In competitive electricity markets it is necessary for a profit-seeking load-serving entity (LSE) to optimally adjust the financial incentives offering the end users that buy electricity at regulated rates to reduce the consumption during high market prices. The LSE in this model manages the demand response (DR) by offering financial incentives to retail customers, in order to maximize its expected profit and reduce the risk of market power experience. The stochastic formulation is implemented into a test system where a number of loads are supplied through LSEs.

Cost Allocation Model for Distribution Networks Considering High Penetration of Distributed Energy Resources

The high penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution networks and the competitiveenvironment of electricity markets impose the use of new approaches in several domains. The networkcost allocation, traditionally used in transmission networks, should be adapted and used in the distribu-tion networks considering the specifications of the connected resources. The main goal is to develop afairer methodology trying to distribute the distribution network use costs to all players which are usingthe network in each period. In this paper, a model considering different type of costs (fixed, losses, andcongestion costs) is proposed comprising the use of a large set of DER, namely distributed generation(DG), demand response (DR) of direct load control type, energy storage systems (ESS), and electric vehi-cles with capability of discharging energy to the network, which is known as vehicle-to-grid (V2G). Theproposed model includes three distinct phases of operation. The first phase of the model consists in aneconomic dispatch based on an AC optimal power flow (AC-OPF); in the second phase Kirschen’s andBialek’s tracing algorithms are used and compared to evaluate the impact of each resource in the net-work. Finally, the MW-mile method is used in the third phase of the proposed model. A distributionnetwork of 33 buses with large penetration of DER is used to illustrate the application of the proposedmodel.

Relationship between ISO 9001 certification maturity and EFQM business excellence model results

Purpose: This exploratory research evaluates if there is a relationship between the number of years since an organization has achieved ISO 9001 certification and the highest level of recognition received by the same organization with the EFQM Business Excellence Model. Methodology/Approach: After state of the art review a detailed comparison between both models was made. Fifty two Portuguese organizations were considered and Correlation coefficient Spearman Rho was used to investigate the possible relationships. Findings: Conclusion is that there is indeed a moderate positive correlation between these two variables, the higher the number of years of ISO 9001 certification, the higher the results of the organization EFQM model evaluation and recognition. This supports the assumption that ISO 9001 International Standard by incorporating many of the principles present in the EFQM Business Excellence Model is consistent with this model and can be considered as a step towards that direction. Research Limitation/implication: Due to the dynamic nature of these models that might change over time and the possible time delays between implementation and results, more in-depth studies like experimental design or a longitudinal quasi-experimental design could be used to confirm the results of this investigation. Originality/Value of paper: This research gives additional insights on conjunct studies of both models. The use of external evaluation results carried out by the independent EFQM assessors minimizes the possible bias of previous studies accessing the value of ISO 9001 certification.

Real-Time Application Mapping for Many-Cores Using a Limited Migrative Model

Many-core platforms are an emerging technology in the real-time embedded domain. These devices offer various options for power savings, cost reductions and contribute to the overall system flexibility, however, issues such as unpredictability, scalability and analysis pessimism are serious challenges to their integration into the aforementioned area. The focus of this work is on many-core platforms using a limited migrative model (LMM). LMM is an approach based on the fundamental concepts of the multi-kernel paradigm, which is a promising step towards scalable and predictable many-cores. In this work, we formulate the problem of real-time application mapping on a many-core platform using LMM, and propose a three-stage method to solve it. An extended version of the existing analysis is used to assure that derived mappings (i) guarantee the fulfilment of timing constraints posed on worst-case communication delays of individual applications, and (ii) provide an environment to perform load balancing for e.g. energy/thermal management, fault tolerance and/or performance reasons.