Defining Electricity Tariffs Using the Knowledge About the Consumers Profiles in ELECON Project

The increasing importance of the integration of distributed generation and demand response in the power systems operation and planning, namely at lower voltage levels of distribution networks and in the competitive environment of electricity markets, leads us to the concept of smart grids. In both traditional and smart grid operation, non-technical losses are a great economic concern, which can be addressed. In this context, the ELECON project addresses the use of demand response contributions to the identification of non-technical losses. The present paper proposes a methodology to be used by Virtual Power Players (VPPs), which are entities able to aggregate distributed small-size resources, aiming to define the best electricity tariffs for several, clusters of consumers. A case study based on real consumption data demonstrates the application of the proposed methodology.

Adaptive Learning in Games: Defining Profiles of Competitor Players

Artificial Intelligence has been applied to dynamic games for many years. The ultimate goal is creating responses in virtual entities that display human-like reasoning in the definition of their behaviors. However, virtual entities that can be mistaken for real persons are yet very far from being fully achieved. This paper presents an adaptive learning based methodology for the definition of players’ profiles, with the purpose of supporting decisions of virtual entities. The proposed methodology is based on reinforcement learning algorithms, which are responsible for choosing, along the time, with the gathering of experience, the most appropriate from a set of different learning approaches. These learning approaches have very distinct natures, from mathematical to artificial intelligence and data analysis methodologies, so that the methodology is prepared for very distinct situations. This way it is equipped with a variety of tools that individually can be useful for each encountered situation. The proposed methodology is tested firstly on two simpler computer versus human player games: the rock-paper-scissors game, and a penalty-shootout simulation. Finally, the methodology is applied to the definition of action profiles of electricity market players; players that compete in a dynamic game-wise environment, in which the main goal is the achievement of the highest possible profits in the market.

Real-Time Simulation of energy Management in a Domestic Consumer

Recent and future changes in power systems, mainly in the smart grid operation context, are related to a high complexity of power networks operation. This leads to more complex communications and to higher network elements monitoring and control levels, both from network’s and consumers’ standpoint. The present work focuses on a real scenario of the LASIE laboratory, located at the Polytechnic of Porto. Laboratory systems are managed by the SCADA House Intelligent Management (SHIM), already developed by the authors based on a SCADA system. The SHIM capacities have been recently improved by including real-time simulation from Opal RT. This makes possible the integration of Matlab®/Simulink® real-time simulation models. The main goal of the present paper is to compare the advantages of the resulting improved system, while managing the energy consumption of a domestic consumer.

Lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) leaf-proteome profiles after exposure to cylindrospermopsin and a microcystin-LR/cylindrospermopsin mixture: A concentration-dependent response

The intensification of agricultural productivity is an important challenge worldwide. However, environmental stressors can provide challenges to this intensification. The progressive occurrence of the cyanotoxins cylindrospermopsin (CYN) and microcystin-LR (MC-LR) as a potential consequence of eutrophication and climate change is of increasing concern in the agricultural sector because it has been reported that these cyanotoxins exert harmful effects in crop plants. A proteomic-based approach has been shown to be a suitable tool for the detection and identification of the primary responses of organisms exposed to cyanotoxins. The aim of this study was to compare the leaf-proteome profiles of lettuce plants exposed to environmentally relevant concentrations of CYN and a MC-LR/CYN mixture. Lettuce plants were exposed to 1, 10, and 100 lg/l CYN and a MC-LR/CYN mixture for five days. The proteins of lettuce leaves were separated by twodimensional electrophoresis (2-DE), and those that were differentially abundant were then identified by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time of flight-mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF/TOF MS). The biological functions of the proteins that were most represented in both experiments were photosynthesis and carbon metabolism and stress/defense response. Proteins involved in protein synthesis and signal transduction were also highly observed in the MC-LR/CYN experiment. Although distinct protein abundance patterns were observed in both experiments, the effects appear to be concentration-dependent, and the effects of the mixture were clearly stronger than those of CYN alone. The obtained results highlight the putative tolerance of lettuce to CYN at concentrations up to 100 lg/l. Furthermore, the combination of CYN with MC-LR at low concentrations (1 lg/l) stimulated a significant increase in the fresh weight (fr. wt) of lettuce leaves and at the proteomic level resulted in the increase in abundance of a high number of proteins. In contrast, many proteins exhibited a decrease in abundance or were absent in the gels of the simultaneous exposure to 10 and 100 lg/l MC-LR/CYN. In the latter, also a significant decrease in the fr. wt of lettuce leaves was obtained. These findings provide important insights into the molecular mechanisms of the lettuce response to CYN and MC-LR/CYN and may contribute to the identification of potential protein markers of exposure and proteins that may confer tolerance to CYN and MC-LR/CYN. Furthermore, because lettuce is an important crop worldwide, this study may improve our understanding of the potential impact of these cyanotoxins on its quality traits (e.g., presence of allergenic proteins).

Determining the receptivity to the bluetooth marketing by the portuguese consumer

With increasing technological innovation, the concept of marketing and its applications become more functional and wide. Today, we witness a steady growth in the development of mobile marketing campaigns, i.e., marketing campaigns targeting mobile devices (mobile phones, Smartphones, PDAs, tablets). Among the several mobile technologies available (Bluetooth networks, Wi-Fi, WAP, SMS service, MMS), Bluetooth seems to have the biggest potential for the least invasive consumer mobile marketing strategy. This study seeks to answer the question "what factors may motivate the Portuguese consumer to accept Bluetooth marketing?.“ We propose a conceptual model capable of investigating the relationships between the several responsiveness factors to Bluetooth marketing. The development of a set of hypotheses supported by an online questionnaire to a valid sample of 755 participants, demonstrates that there is a relationship between factors such as expanded knowledge of the technology, and Bluetooth marketing receptivity. Additionally, we find that the information value of mobile advertising messages, such as entertainment value and personalization, relates well to responsiveness. The ability to accept/dismiss promotional messages sent to mobile phones and other safety features also correlated well with Bluetooth marketing receptivity.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.