Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Load Control Timescales Simulation in a Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform

Environmental concerns and the shortage in the fossil fuel reserves have been potentiating the growth and globalization of distributed generation. Another resource that has been increasing its importance is the demand response, which is used to change consumers’ consumption profile, helping to reduce peak demand. Aiming to support small players’ participation in demand response events, the Curtailment Service Provider emerged. This player works as an aggregator for demand response events. The control of small and medium players which act in smart grid and micro grid environments is enhanced with a multi-agent system with artificial intelligence techniques – the MASGriP (Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform). Using strategic behaviours in each player, this system simulates the profile of real players by using software agents. This paper shows the importance of modeling these behaviours for studying this type of scenarios. A case study with three examples shows the differences between each player and the best behaviour in order to achieve the higher profit in each situation.

A proposal for media component brokerage

This paper describes how MPEG-4 object based video (obv) can be used to allow selected objects to be inserted into the play-out stream to a specific user based on a profile derived for that user. The application scenario described here is for personalized product placement, and considers the value of this application in the current and evolving commercial media distribution market given the huge emphasis media distributors are currently placing on targeted advertising. This level of application of video content requires a sophisticated content description and metadata system (e.g., MPEG-7). The scenario considers the requirement for global libraries to provide the objects to be inserted into the streams. The paper then considers the commercial trading of objects between the libraries, video service providers, advertising agencies and other parties involved in the service. Consequently a brokerage of video objects is proposed based on negotiation and trading using intelligent agents representing the various parties. The proposed Media Brokerage Platform is a multi-agent system structured in two layers. In the top layer, there is a collection of coarse grain agents representing the real world players – the providers and deliverers of media contents and the market regulator profiler – and, in the bottom layer, there is a set of finer grain agents constituting the marketplace – the delegate agents and the market agent. For knowledge representation (domain, strategic and negotiation protocols) we propose a Semantic Web approach based on ontologies. The media components contents should be represented in MPEG-7 and the metadata describing the objects to be traded should follow a specific ontology. The top layer content providers and deliverers are modelled by intelligent autonomous agents that express their will to transact – buy or sell – media components by registering at a service registry. The market regulator profiler creates, according to the selected profile, a market agent, which, in turn, checks the service registry for potential trading partners for a given component and invites them for the marketplace. The subsequent negotiation and actual transaction is performed by delegate agents in accordance with their profiles and the predefined rules of the market.

B2B platform for media content personalisation

This paper proposes a novel business model to support media content personalisation: an agent-based business-to-business (B2B) brokerage platform for media content producer and distributor businesses. Distributors aim to provide viewers with a personalised content experience and producers wish to en-sure that their media objects are watched by as many targeted viewers as possible. In this scenario viewers and media objects (main programmes and candidate objects for insertion) have profiles and, in the case of main programme objects, are annotated with placeholders representing personalisation opportunities, i.e., locations for insertion of personalised media objects. The MultiMedia Brokerage (MMB) platform is a multiagent multilayered brokerage composed by agents that act as sellers and buyers of viewer stream timeslots and/or media objects on behalf of the registered businesses. These agents engage in negotiations to select the media objects that best match the current programme and viewer profiles.

Case-based reasoning for meta-heuristics self-parameterization in a multi-agent scheduling system

A novel agent-based approach to Meta-Heuristics self-configuration is proposed in this work. Meta-heuristics are examples of algorithms where parameters need to be set up as efficient as possible in order to unsure its performance. This paper presents a learning module for self-parameterization of Meta-heuristics (MHs) in a Multi-Agent System (MAS) for resolution of scheduling problems. The learning is based on Case-based Reasoning (CBR) and two different integration approaches are proposed. A computational study is made for comparing the two CBR integration perspectives. In the end, some conclusions are reached and future work outlined.

Meta-heuristics self-parameterization in a multi-agent scheduling system using case-based reasoning

This paper proposes a novel agent-based approach to Meta-Heuristics self-configuration. Meta-heuristics are algorithms with parameters which need to be set up as efficient as possible in order to unsure its performance. A learning module for self-parameterization of Meta-heuristics (MH) in a Multi-Agent System (MAS) for resolution of scheduling problems is proposed in this work. The learning module is based on Case-based Reasoning (CBR) and two different integration approaches are proposed. A computational study is made for comparing the two CBR integration perspectives. Finally, some conclusions are reached and future work outlined.

Personalised placement in networked video

Personalised video can be achieved by inserting objects into a video play-out according to the viewer's profile. Content which has been authored and produced for general broadcast can take on additional commercial service features when personalised either for individual viewers or for groups of viewers participating in entertainment, training, gaming or informational activities. Although several scenarios and use-cases can be envisaged, we are focussed on the application of personalised product placement. Targeted advertising and product placement are currently garnering intense interest in the commercial networked media industries. Personalisation of product placement is a relevant and timely service for next generation online marketing and advertising and for many other revenue generating interactive services. This paper discusses the acquisition and insertion of media objects into a TV video play-out stream where the objects are determined by the profile of the viewer. The technology is based on MPEG-4 standards using object based video and MPEG-7 for metadata. No proprietary technology or protocol is proposed. To trade the objects into the video play-out, a Software-as-a-Service brokerage platform based on intelligent agent technology is adopted. Agencies, libraries and service providers are represented in a commercial negotiation to facilitate the contractual selection and usage of objects to be inserted into the video play-out.

Demonstration of the Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. A critical issue concerns the constant changes they are subject to. This is a result of the electricity markets’ restructuring, performed so that the competitiveness could be increased, but with exponential implications in the increase of the complexity and unpredictability in those markets’ scope. The constant growth in markets unpredictability resulted in an amplified need for market intervenient entities in foreseeing market behavior. The need for understanding the market mechanisms and how the involved players’ interaction affects the outcomes of the markets, contributed to the growth of usage of simulation tools. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyze dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. This paper presents the Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM) – a simulator based on multi-agent technology that provides a realistic platform to simulate electricity markets, the numerous negotiation opportunities and the participating entities.

Enhancing Agent Mediated Electronic Markets with Ontology Matching Services and Social Network Support

Os Mercados Eletrónicos atingiram uma complexidade e nível de sofisticação tão elevados, que tornaram inadequados os modelos de software convencionais. Estes mercados são caracterizados por serem abertos, dinâmicos e competitivos, e constituídos por várias entidades independentes e heterogéneas. Tais entidades desempenham os seus papéis de forma autónoma, seguindo os seus objetivos, reagindo às ocorrências do ambiente em que se inserem e interagindo umas com as outras. Esta realidade levou a que existisse por parte da comunidade científica um especial interesse no estudo da negociação automática executada por agentes de software [Zhang et al., 2011]. No entanto, a diversidade dos atores envolvidos pode levar à existência de diferentes conceptualizações das suas necessidades e capacidades dando origem a incompatibilidades semânticas, que podem prejudicar a negociação e impedir a ocorrência de transações que satisfaçam as partes envolvidas. Os novos mercados devem, assim, possuir mecanismos que lhes permitam exibir novas capacidades, nomeadamente a capacidade de auxiliar na comunicação entre os diferentes agentes. Pelo que, é defendido neste trabalho que os mercados devem oferecer serviços de ontologias que permitam facilitar a interoperabilidade entre os agentes. No entanto, os humanos tendem a ser relutantes em aceitar a conceptualização de outros, a não ser que sejam convencidos de que poderão conseguir um bom negócio. Neste contexto, a aplicação e exploração de relações capturadas em redes sociais pode resultar no estabelecimento de relações de confiança entre vendedores e consumidores, e ao mesmo tempo, conduzir a um aumento da eficiência da negociação e consequentemente na satisfação das partes envolvidas. O sistema AEMOS é uma plataforma de comércio eletrónico baseada em agentes que inclui serviços de ontologias, mais especificamente, serviços de alinhamento de ontologias, incluindo a recomendação de possíveis alinhamentos entre as ontologias dos parceiros de negociação. Este sistema inclui também uma componente baseada numa rede social, que é construída aplicando técnicas de análise de redes socias sobre informação recolhida pelo mercado, e que permite melhorar a recomendação de alinhamentos e auxiliar os agentes na sua escolha. Neste trabalho são apresentados o desenvolvimento e implementação do sistema AEMOS, mais concretamente: • É proposto um novo modelo para comércio eletrónico baseado em agentes que disponibiliza serviços de ontologias; • Adicionalmente propõem-se o uso de redes sociais emergentes para captar e explorar informação sobre relações entre os diferentes parceiros de negócio; • É definida e implementada uma componente de serviços de ontologias que é capaz de: • o Sugerir alinhamentos entre ontologias para pares de agentes; • o Traduzir mensagens escritas de acordo com uma ontologia em mensagens escritas de acordo com outra, utilizando alinhamentos previamente aprovados; • o Melhorar os seus próprios serviços recorrendo às funcionalidades disponibilizadas pela componente de redes sociais; • É definida e implementada uma componente de redes sociais que: • o É capaz de construir e gerir um grafo de relações de proximidade entre agentes, e de relações de adequação de alinhamentos a agentes, tendo em conta os perfis, comportamento e interação dos agentes, bem como a cobertura e utilização dos alinhamentos; • o Explora e adapta técnicas e algoritmos de análise de redes sociais às várias fases dos processos do mercado eletrónico. A implementação e experimentação do modelo proposto demonstra como a colaboração entre os diferentes agentes pode ser vantajosa na melhoria do desempenho do sistema e como a inclusão e combinação de serviços de ontologias e redes sociais se reflete na eficiência da negociação de transações e na dinâmica do mercado como um todo.

Federated IaaS Resource Brokerage

This paper presents the CloudAnchor brokerage platform for the transaction of single provider as well as federated Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) resources. The platform, which is a layered Multi-Agent System (MAS), provides multiple services, including (consumer or provider) business registration and deregistration, provider coalition creation and termination, provider lookup and invitation and negotiation services regarding brokerage, coalitions and resources. Providers, consumers and virtual providers, representing provider coalitions, are modelled by dedicated agents within the platform. The main goal of the platform is to negotiate and establish Service Level Agreements (SLA). In particular, the platform contemplates the establishment of brokerage SLA – bSLA – between the platform and each provider or consumer, coalition SLA – cSLA – between the members of a coalition of providers and resource SLA – rSLA – between a consumer and a provider. Federated resources are detained and negotiated by virtual providers on behalf of the corresponding coalitions of providers.

Renewable-based generation integration in electricity markets with virtual power producers

The development of renewable energy sources and Distributed Generation (DG) of electricity is of main importance in the way towards a sustainable development. However, the management, in large scale, of these technologies is complicated because of the intermittency of primary resources (wind, sunshine, etc.) and small scale of some plants. The aggregation of DG plants gives place to a new concept: the Virtual Power Producer (VPP). VPPs can reinforce the importance of these generation technologies making them valuable in electricity markets. VPPs can ensure a secure, environmentally friendly generation and optimal management of heat, electricity and cold as well as optimal operation and maintenance of electrical equipment, including the sale of electricity in the energy market. For attaining these goals, there are important issues to deal with, such as reserve management strategies, strategies for bids formulation, the producers’ remuneration, and the producers’ characterization for coalition formation. This chapter presents the most important concepts related with renewable-based generation integration in electricity markets, using VPP paradigm. The presented case studies make use of two main computer applications:ViProd and MASCEM. ViProd simulates VPP operation, including the management of plants in operation. MASCEM is a multi-agent based electricity market simulator that supports the inclusion of VPPs in the players set.

Multi-agent systems and birtual producers in electronic marketplaces

This paper presents an agent-based simulator designed for analyzing agent market strategies based on a complete understanding of buyer and seller behaviours, preference models and pricing algorithms, considering user risk preferences. The system includes agents that are capable of improving their performance with their own experience, by adapting to the market conditions. In the simulated market agents interact in several different ways and may joint together to form coalitions. In this paper we address multi-agent coalitions to analyse Distributed Generation in Electricity Markets

ANN based day-ahead spinning reserve forecast for electricity market simulation

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment require adequate decision support tools, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. This paper deals with short-term predication of day-ahead spinning reserve (SR) requirement that helps the ISO to make effective and timely decisions. Based on these forecasted information, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead SR market. The proposed concepts and methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

ANN based day-ahead ancillary services forecast for electricity market simulation

Adequate decision support tools are required by electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services (AS) represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. Based on the ancillary services forecasting, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead ancillary services markets. For this reason, ancillary services market simulation is being included in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator that can be used by market players to test and enhance their bidding strategies. The paper presents the methodology used to undertake ancillary services forecasting, based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach. ANNs are used to day-ahead prediction of non-spinning reserve (NS), regulation-up (RU), and regulation down (RD). Spinning reserve (SR) is mentioned as past work for comparative analysis. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.