Analysis of temperature time-series: embedding dynamics into the MDS method

Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic and health aspects of the human life. Surface temperature time-series characterise Earth as a slow dynamics spatiotemporal system, evidencing long memory behaviour, typical of fractional order systems. Such phenomena are difficult to model and analyse, demanding for alternative approaches. This paper studies the complex correlations between global temperature time-series using the Multidimensional scaling (MDS) approach. MDS provides a graphical representation of the pattern of climatic similarities between regions around the globe. The similarities are quantified through two mathematical indices that correlate the monthly average temperatures observed in meteorological stations, over a given period of time. Furthermore, time dynamics is analysed by performing the MDS analysis over slices sampling the time series. MDS generates maps describing the stations’ locus in the perspective that, if they are perceived to be similar to each other, then they are placed on the map forming clusters. We show that MDS provides an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among temperature time-series, which are not perceived on traditional geographic maps. Moreover, MDS avoids sensitivity to the irregular distribution density of the meteorological stations.

Optimal controllers with complex order derivatives

This paper studies the optimization of complex-order algorithms for the discrete-time control of linear and nonlinear systems. The fundamentals of fractional systems and genetic algorithms are introduced. Based on these concepts, complexorder control schemes and their implementation are evaluated in the perspective of evolutionary optimization. The results demonstrate not only that complex-order derivatives constitute a valuable alternative for deriving control algorithms, but also the feasibility of the adopted optimization strategy.

Analysis of financial indices by means of the windowed Fourier transform

The goal of this study is to analyze the dynamical properties of financial data series from nineteen worldwide stock market indices (SMI) during the period 1995–2009. SMI reveal a complex behavior that can be explored since it is available a considerable volume of data. In this paper is applied the window Fourier transform and methods of fractional calculus. The results reveal classification patterns typical of fractional order systems.

Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar, ainda permanecem questões científicas empíricas sobre a identificação do modelo geral teórico de mercado mais adequado para modelar a difusão das séries. Em quarto lugar, aos reguladores e gestores de risco importa saber se existem mercados persistentes e, por isso, ineficientes, que, portanto, possam produzir retornos anormais. O objetivo do trabalho de investigação da dissertação é duplo. Por um lado, pretende proporcionar conhecimento adicional para o debate da memória de longo prazo, debruçando-se sobre o comportamento das séries diárias de retornos dos principais índices acionistas da EURONEXT. Por outro lado, pretende contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model CAPM, considerando uma medida de risco alternativa capaz de ultrapassar os constrangimentos da hipótese de mercado eficiente EMH na presença de séries financeiras com processos sem incrementos independentes e identicamente distribuídos (i.i.d.). O estudo empírico indica a possibilidade de utilização alternativa das obrigações do tesouro (OT’s) com maturidade de longo prazo no cálculo dos retornos do mercado, dado que o seu comportamento nos mercados de dívida soberana reflete a confiança dos investidores nas condições financeiras dos Estados e mede a forma como avaliam as respetiva economias com base no desempenho da generalidade dos seus ativos. Embora o modelo de difusão de preços definido pelo movimento Browniano geométrico gBm alegue proporcionar um bom ajustamento das séries temporais financeiras, os seus pressupostos de normalidade, estacionariedade e independência das inovações residuais são adulterados pelos dados empíricos analisados. Por isso, na procura de evidências sobre a propriedade de memória longa nos mercados recorre-se à rescaled-range analysis R/S e à detrended fluctuation analysis DFA, sob abordagem do movimento Browniano fracionário fBm, para estimar o expoente Hurst H em relação às séries de dados completas e para calcular o expoente Hurst “local” H t em janelas móveis. Complementarmente, são realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses através do rescaled-range tests R/S , do modified rescaled-range test M - R/S e do fractional differencing test GPH. Em termos de uma conclusão única a partir de todos os métodos sobre a natureza da dependência para o mercado acionista em geral, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos. Isso quer dizer que o grau de memória de longo prazo e, assim, qualquer classificação, depende de cada mercado particular. No entanto, os resultados gerais maioritariamente positivos suportam a presença de memória longa, sob a forma de persistência, nos retornos acionistas da Bélgica, Holanda e Portugal. Isto sugere que estes mercados estão mais sujeitos a maior previsibilidade (“efeito José”), mas também a tendências que podem ser inesperadamente interrompidas por descontinuidades (“efeito Noé”), e, por isso, tendem a ser mais arriscados para negociar. Apesar da evidência de dinâmica fractal ter suporte estatístico fraco, em sintonia com a maior parte dos estudos internacionais, refuta a hipótese de passeio aleatório com incrementos i.i.d., que é a base da EMH na sua forma fraca. Atendendo a isso, propõem-se contributos para aperfeiçoamento do CAPM, através da proposta de uma nova fractal capital market line FCML e de uma nova fractal security market line FSML. A nova proposta sugere que o elemento de risco (para o mercado e para um ativo) seja dado pelo expoente H de Hurst para desfasamentos de longo prazo dos retornos acionistas. O expoente H mede o grau de memória de longo prazo nos índices acionistas, quer quando as séries de retornos seguem um processo i.i.d. não correlacionado, descrito pelo gBm(em que H = 0,5 , confirmando- se a EMH e adequando-se o CAPM), quer quando seguem um processo com dependência estatística, descrito pelo fBm(em que H é diferente de 0,5, rejeitando-se a EMH e desadequando-se o CAPM). A vantagem da FCML e da FSML é que a medida de memória de longo prazo, definida por H, é a referência adequada para traduzir o risco em modelos que possam ser aplicados a séries de dados que sigam processos i.i.d. e processos com dependência não linear. Então, estas formulações contemplam a EMH como um caso particular possível.

Direct search optimization application programming interface with remote access

Search Optimization methods are needed to solve optimization problems where the objective function and/or constraints functions might be non differentiable, non convex or might not be possible to determine its analytical expressions either due to its complexity or its cost (monetary, computational, time,...). Many optimization problems in engineering and other fields have these characteristics, because functions values can result from experimental or simulation processes, can be modelled by functions with complex expressions or by noise functions and it is impossible or very difficult to calculate their derivatives. Direct Search Optimization methods only use function values and do not need any derivatives or approximations of them. In this work we present a Java API that including several methods and algorithms, that do not use derivatives, to solve constrained and unconstrained optimization problems. Traditional API access, by installing it on the developer and/or user computer, and remote API access to it, using Web Services, are also presented. Remote access to the API has the advantage of always allow the access to the latest version of the API. For users that simply want to have a tool to solve Nonlinear Optimization Problems and do not want to integrate these methods in applications, also two applications were developed. One is a standalone Java application and the other a Web-based application, both using the developed API.

Filters method in direct search optimization, new measures to admissibility

Constrained nonlinear optimization problems are usually solved using penalty or barrier methods combined with unconstrained optimization methods. Another alternative used to solve constrained nonlinear optimization problems is the lters method. Filters method, introduced by Fletcher and Ley er in 2002, have been widely used in several areas of constrained nonlinear optimization. These methods treat optimization problem as bi-objective attempts to minimize the objective function and a continuous function that aggregates the constraint violation functions. Audet and Dennis have presented the rst lters method for derivative-free nonlinear programming, based on pattern search methods. Motivated by this work we have de- veloped a new direct search method, based on simplex methods, for general constrained optimization, that combines the features of the simplex method and lters method. This work presents a new variant of these methods which combines the lters method with other direct search methods and are proposed some alternatives to aggregate the constraint violation functions.

A web-based tool to evaluate the iterative processes of direct search methods

Constrained and unconstrained Nonlinear Optimization Problems often appear in many engineering areas. In some of these cases it is not possible to use derivative based optimization methods because the objective function is not known or it is too complex or the objective function is non-smooth. In these cases derivative based methods cannot be used and Direct Search Methods might be the most suitable optimization methods. An Application Programming Interface (API) including some of these methods was implemented using Java Technology. This API can be accessed either by applications running in the same computer where it is installed or, it can be remotely accessed through a LAN or the Internet, using webservices. From the engineering point of view, the information needed from the API is the solution for the provided problem. On the other hand, from the optimization methods researchers’ point of view, not only the solution for the problem is needed. Also additional information about the iterative process is useful, such as: the number of iterations; the value of the solution at each iteration; the stopping criteria, etc. In this paper are presented the features added to the API to allow users to access to the iterative process data.

Web-based application programming interface to solve nonlinear optimization problems

Nonlinear Optimization Problems are usual in many engineering fields. Due to its characteristics the objective function of some problems might not be differentiable or its derivatives have complex expressions. There are even cases where an analytical expression of the objective function might not be possible to determine either due to its complexity or its cost (monetary, computational, time, ...). In these cases Nonlinear Optimization methods must be used. An API, including several methods and algorithms to solve constrained and unconstrained optimization problems was implemented. This API can be accessed not only as traditionally, by installing it on the developer and/or user computer, but it can also be accessed remotely using Web Services. As long as there is a network connection to the server where the API is installed, applications always access to the latest API version. Also an Web-based application, using the proposed API, was developed. This application is to be used by users that do not want to integrate methods in applications, and simply want to have a tool to solve Nonlinear Optimization Problems.

Direct-search penalty/barrier methods

In Nonlinear Optimization Penalty and Barrier Methods are normally used to solve Constrained Problems. There are several Penalty/Barrier Methods and they are used in several areas from Engineering to Economy, through Biology, Chemistry, Physics among others. In these areas it often appears Optimization Problems in which the involved functions (objective and constraints) are non-smooth and/or their derivatives are not know. In this work some Penalty/Barrier functions are tested and compared, using in the internal process, Derivative-free, namely Direct Search, methods. This work is a part of a bigger project involving the development of an Application Programming Interface, that implements several Optimization Methods, to be used in applications that need to solve constrained and/or unconstrained Nonlinear Optimization Problems. Besides the use of it in applied mathematics research it is also to be used in engineering software packages.

Complex-order forced van der Pol oscillator

In this paper we consider a complex-order forced van der Pol oscillator. The complex derivative Dα1jβ, with α, β ∈ ℝ+, is a generalization of the concept of an integer derivative, where α = 1, β = 0. The Fourier transforms of the periodic solutions of the complex-order forced van der Pol oscillator are computed for various values of parameters such as frequency ω and amplitude b of the external forcing, the damping μ, and parameters α and β. Moreover, we consider two cases: (i) b = 1, μ = {1.0, 5.0, 10.0}, and ω = {0.5, 2.46, 5.0, 20.0}; (ii) ω = 20.0, μ = {1.0, 5.0, 10.0}, and b = {1.0, 5.0, 10.0}. We verified that most of the signal energy is concentrated in the fundamental harmonic ω0. We also observed that the fundamental frequency of the oscillations ω0 varies with α and μ. For the range of tested values, the numerical fitting led to logarithmic approximations for system (7) in the two cases (i) and (ii). In conclusion, we verify that by varying the parameter values α and β of the complex-order derivative in expression (7), we accomplished a very effective way of perturbing the dynamical behavior of the forced van der Pol oscillator, which is no longer limited to parameters b and ω.

Complex order van der Pol oscillator

In this paper a complex-order van der Pol oscillator is considered. The complex derivative Dα±ȷβ , with α,β∈R + is a generalization of the concept of integer derivative, where α=1, β=0. By applying the concept of complex derivative, we obtain a high-dimensional parameter space. Amplitude and period values of the periodic solutions of the two versions of the complex-order van der Pol oscillator are studied for variation of these parameters. Fourier transforms of the periodic solutions of the two oscillators are also analyzed.

Identifying economic periods and crisis with the multidimensional scaling

This paper applied MDS and Fourier transform to analyze different periods of the business cycle. With such purpose, four important stock market indexes (Dow Jones, Nasdaq, NYSE, S&P500) were studied over time. The analysis under the lens of the Fourier transform showed that the indexes have characteristics similar to those of fractional noise. By the other side, the analysis under the MDS lens identified patterns in the stock markets specific to each economic expansion period. Although the identification of patterns characteristic to each expansion period is interesting to practitioners (even if only in a posteriori fashion), further research should explore the meaning of such regularities and target to find a method to estimate future crisis.

Adaptive tackling of the swinging problem for a 2 DOF crane – payload system

The control of a crane carrying its payload by an elastic string corresponds to a task in which precise, indirect control of a subsystem dynamically coupled to a directly controllable subsystem is needed. This task is interesting since the coupled degree of freedom has little damping and it is apt to keep swinging accordingly. The traditional approaches apply the input shaping technology to assist the human operator responsible for the manipulation task. In the present paper a novel adaptive approach applying fixed point transformations based iterations having local basin of attraction is proposed to simultaneously tackle the problems originating from the imprecise dynamic model available for the system to be controlled and the swinging problem, too. The most important phenomenological properties of this approach are also discussed. The control considers the 4th time-derivative of the trajectory of the payload. The operation of the proposed control is illustrated via simulation results.

Dynamics of the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ stock indexes

The goal of this study is the analysis of the dynamical properties of financial data series from worldwide stock market indices. We analyze the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ∧ DJI) and the NASDAQ Composite ( ∧ IXIC) indexes at a daily time horizon. The methods and algorithms that have been explored for description of physical phenomena become an effective background, and even inspiration, for very productive methods used in the analysis of economical data. We start by applying the classical concepts of signal analysis, Fourier transform, and methods of fractional calculus. In a second phase we adopt a pseudo phase plane approach.

A theoretical study on modelling the respiratory tract with ladder networks by means of intrinsic fractal geometry

Fractional order modeling of biological systems has received significant interest in the research community. Since the fractal geometry is characterized by a recurrent structure, the self-similar branching arrangement of the airways makes the respiratory system an ideal candidate for the application of fractional calculus theory. To demonstrate the link between the recurrence of the respiratory tree and the appearance of a fractional-order model, we develop an anatomically consistent representation of the respiratory system. This model is capable of simulating the mechanical properties of the lungs and we compare the model output with in vivo measurements of the respiratory input impedance collected in 20 healthy subjects. This paper provides further proof of the underlying fractal geometry of the human lungs, and the consequent appearance of constant-phase behavior in the total respiratory impedance.