Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar, ainda permanecem questões científicas empíricas sobre a identificação do modelo geral teórico de mercado mais adequado para modelar a difusão das séries. Em quarto lugar, aos reguladores e gestores de risco importa saber se existem mercados persistentes e, por isso, ineficientes, que, portanto, possam produzir retornos anormais. O objetivo do trabalho de investigação da dissertação é duplo. Por um lado, pretende proporcionar conhecimento adicional para o debate da memória de longo prazo, debruçando-se sobre o comportamento das séries diárias de retornos dos principais índices acionistas da EURONEXT. Por outro lado, pretende contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model CAPM, considerando uma medida de risco alternativa capaz de ultrapassar os constrangimentos da hipótese de mercado eficiente EMH na presença de séries financeiras com processos sem incrementos independentes e identicamente distribuídos (i.i.d.). O estudo empírico indica a possibilidade de utilização alternativa das obrigações do tesouro (OT’s) com maturidade de longo prazo no cálculo dos retornos do mercado, dado que o seu comportamento nos mercados de dívida soberana reflete a confiança dos investidores nas condições financeiras dos Estados e mede a forma como avaliam as respetiva economias com base no desempenho da generalidade dos seus ativos. Embora o modelo de difusão de preços definido pelo movimento Browniano geométrico gBm alegue proporcionar um bom ajustamento das séries temporais financeiras, os seus pressupostos de normalidade, estacionariedade e independência das inovações residuais são adulterados pelos dados empíricos analisados. Por isso, na procura de evidências sobre a propriedade de memória longa nos mercados recorre-se à rescaled-range analysis R/S e à detrended fluctuation analysis DFA, sob abordagem do movimento Browniano fracionário fBm, para estimar o expoente Hurst H em relação às séries de dados completas e para calcular o expoente Hurst “local” H t em janelas móveis. Complementarmente, são realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses através do rescaled-range tests R/S , do modified rescaled-range test M - R/S e do fractional differencing test GPH. Em termos de uma conclusão única a partir de todos os métodos sobre a natureza da dependência para o mercado acionista em geral, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos. Isso quer dizer que o grau de memória de longo prazo e, assim, qualquer classificação, depende de cada mercado particular. No entanto, os resultados gerais maioritariamente positivos suportam a presença de memória longa, sob a forma de persistência, nos retornos acionistas da Bélgica, Holanda e Portugal. Isto sugere que estes mercados estão mais sujeitos a maior previsibilidade (“efeito José”), mas também a tendências que podem ser inesperadamente interrompidas por descontinuidades (“efeito Noé”), e, por isso, tendem a ser mais arriscados para negociar. Apesar da evidência de dinâmica fractal ter suporte estatístico fraco, em sintonia com a maior parte dos estudos internacionais, refuta a hipótese de passeio aleatório com incrementos i.i.d., que é a base da EMH na sua forma fraca. Atendendo a isso, propõem-se contributos para aperfeiçoamento do CAPM, através da proposta de uma nova fractal capital market line FCML e de uma nova fractal security market line FSML. A nova proposta sugere que o elemento de risco (para o mercado e para um ativo) seja dado pelo expoente H de Hurst para desfasamentos de longo prazo dos retornos acionistas. O expoente H mede o grau de memória de longo prazo nos índices acionistas, quer quando as séries de retornos seguem um processo i.i.d. não correlacionado, descrito pelo gBm(em que H = 0,5 , confirmando- se a EMH e adequando-se o CAPM), quer quando seguem um processo com dependência estatística, descrito pelo fBm(em que H é diferente de 0,5, rejeitando-se a EMH e desadequando-se o CAPM). A vantagem da FCML e da FSML é que a medida de memória de longo prazo, definida por H, é a referência adequada para traduzir o risco em modelos que possam ser aplicados a séries de dados que sigam processos i.i.d. e processos com dependência não linear. Então, estas formulações contemplam a EMH como um caso particular possível.

Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns

The objective of this article is to provide additional knowledge to the discussion of long-term memory, leaning over the behavior of the main Portuguese stock index. The first four moments are calculated using time windows of increasing size and sliding time windows of fixed size equal to 50 days and suggest that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Seeming that the series is best described by a fractional Brownian motion approach, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The findings indicate evidence of long term memory in the form of persistence. This evidence of fractal structure suggests that the market is subject to greater predictability and contradicts the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. This raises issues regarding theoretical modeling of asset pricing. In addition, we carried out a more localized (in time) study to identify the evolution of the degree of long-term dependency over time using windows 200-days and 400-days. The results show a switching feature in the index, from persistent to anti-persistent, quite evident from 2010.

Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

Performance analysis of Java APIS for XML processing

Over time, XML markup language has acquired a considerable importance in applications development, standards definition and in the representation of large volumes of data, such as databases. Today, processing XML documents in a short period of time is a critical activity in a large range of applications, which imposes choosing the most appropriate mechanism to parse XML documents quickly and efficiently. When using a programming language for XML processing, such as Java, it becomes necessary to use effective mechanisms, e.g. APIs, which allow reading and processing of large documents in appropriated manners. This paper presents a performance study of the main existing Java APIs that deal with XML documents, in order to identify the most suitable one for processing large XML files.

Optimization of QuEChERS method for the analysis of organochlorine pesticides in soils with diverse organic matter

A QuEChERS method has been developed for the determination of 14 organochlorine pesticides in 14 soils from different Portuguese regions with wide range composition. The extracts were analysed by GC-ECD (where GC-ECD is gas chromatography-electron-capture detector) and confirmed by GC-MS/MS (where MS/MS is tandem mass spectrometry). The organic matter content is a key factor in the process efficiency. An optimization was carried out according to soils organic carbon level, divided in two groups: HS (organic carbon>2.3%) and LS (organic carbon<2.3%). Themethod was validated through linearity, recovery, precision and accuracy studies. The quantification was carried out using a matrixmatched calibration to minimize the existence of the matrix effect. Acceptable recoveries were obtained (70–120%) with a relative standard deviation of ≤16% for the three levels of contamination. The ranges of the limits of detection and of the limits of quantification in soils HS were from 3.42 to 23.77 μg kg−1 and from 11.41 to 79.23 μg kg−1, respectively. For LS soils, the limits of detection ranged from 6.11 to 14.78 μg kg−1 and the limits of quantification from 20.37 to 49.27 μg kg−1. In the 14 collected soil samples only one showed a residue of dieldrin (45.36 μg kg−1) above the limit of quantification. This methodology combines the advantages of QuEChERS, GC-ECD detection and GC-MS/MS confirmation producing a very rapid, sensitive and reliable procedure which can be applied in routine analytical laboratories.

Fast screening procedure for antibiotics in wastewaters by direct HPLC-DAD analysis

Growing concern about the contamination of wastewaters by antibiotics demands fast but sensitive analytical methodologies, for the screening of a large number of samples. The purpose of this work was to develop a simple methodology, using direct injection of the samples, by HPLC with diode array detection (DAD), for a multiresidue analysis of five antibiotics of different classes. Wastewater from an urban water treatment plant was selected as a model to study possible coelution of interfering compounds. The linearity interval ranged from 40 to 400 µg/L for amoxicillin (Amox), metronidazole (Metro), cefazolin (Cefa), and chloramphenicol (Chloram) and from 20 to 200 µg/L for sulfamethoxazole (Sulfa), with LODs lower than 14 µg/L. Repeatability, expressed by the CV of six repeated injections, ranged from 1 to 8%, while the intermediate precision varied between 2 and 11%. The recovery ranged from 90 to 109%. This method enables the fast screening of a large number of samples, with an expanded uncertainty in the 1–22% range. The advantage of the proposed method is to significantly reduce the number of samples to be analyzed by more complex methods.

Direct electroanalytical determination of fluvastatin in a pharmaceutical dosage form: batch and flow analysis

The reduction of luvastatin (FLV) at a hanging mercury-drop electrode (HMDE) was studied by square-wave adsorptive-stripping voltammetry (SWAdSV). FLV can be accumulated and reduced at the electrode, with a maximum peak current intensity at a potential of approximately 1.26V vs. AgCl=Ag, in an aqueous electrolyte solution of pH 5.25. The method shows linearity between peak current intensity and FLV concentration between 1.0 10 8 and 2.7 10 6 mol L 1. Limits of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) were found to be 9.9 10 9 mol L 1 and 3.3 10 8 mol L 1, respectively. Furthermore, FLV oxidation at a glassy carbon electrode surface was used for its hydrodynamic monitoring by amperometric detection in a flow-injection system. The amperometric signal was linear with FLV concentration over the range 1.0 10 6 to 1.0 10 5 mol L 1, with an LOD of 2.4 10 7 mol L 1 and an LOQ of 8.0 10 7 mol L 1. A sample rate of 50 injections per hour was achieved. Both methods were validated and showed to be precise and accurate, being satisfactorily applied to the determination of FLV in a commercial pharmaceutical.

Determination of polyphenols in wines by reaction with 4-aminoantipyrine and photometric flow-injection analysis

A new flow-injection analytical procedure is proposed for the determination of the total amount of polyphenols in wines; the method is based on the formation of a colored complex between 4-aminoantipyrine and phenols, in the presence of an oxidizing reagent. The oxidizing agents hexacyanoferrate(III), peroxodisulfate, and tetroxoiodate(VII) were tested. Batch trials were first performed to select appropriate oxidizing agents, pH, and concentration ratios of reagents, on the basis of their effect on the stability of the colored complex. Conditions selected as a result of these trials were implemented in a flow-injection analytical system in which the influence of injection volume, flow rate, and reaction- coil length, was evaluated. Under the optimum conditions the total amount of polyphenols, expressed as gallic acid, could be determined within a concentration range of 36 to 544 mg L–1, and with a sensitivity of 344 L mol–1 cm–1 and an RSD <1.1%. The reproducibility of analytical readings was indicative of standard deviations <2%. Interference from sugars, tartaric acid, ascorbic acid, methanol, ammonium sulfate, and potassium chloride was negligible. The proposed system was applied to the determination of total polyphenols in red wines, and enabled analysis of approximately 55 samples h–1. Results were usually precise and accurate; the RSD was <3.9% and relative errors, by the Folin–Ciocalteu method, <5.1%.

Man-tailored biomimetic sensor of molecularly imprinted materials for the potentiometric measurement of oxytetracycline

A novel biomimetic sensor for the potentiometric transduction of oxytetracycline is presented. The artificial host was imprinted in methacrylic acid and/or acrylamide based polymers. Different amounts of molecularly imprinted and non-imprinted polymers were dispersed in different plasticizing solvents and entrapped in a poly(vinyl chloride) matrix. Only molecularly imprinted based sensors allowed a potentiometric transduction, suggesting the existence of host–guest interactions. These sensors exhibited a near-Nernstian response in steady state evaluations; slopes and detection limits ranged 42–63 mV/decade and 2.5–31.3 µg/mL, respectively. Sensors were independent from the pH of test solutions within 2–5. Good selectivity was observed towards glycine, ciprofloxacin, creatinine, acid nalidixic, sulfadiazine, cysteine, hydroxylamine and lactose. In flowing media, the biomimetic sensors presented good reproducibility (RSD of ±0.7%), fast response, good sensitivity (65 mV/decade), wide linear range (5.0×10−5 to 1.0×10−2 mol/L), low detection limit (19.8 µg/mL), and a stable baseline for a 5×10−3M citrate buffer (pH 2.5) carrier. The sensors were successfully applied to the analysis of drugs and urine. This work confirms the possibility of using molecularly imprinted polymers as ionophores for organic ion recognition in potentiometric transduction.

Short- and medium-term effects of manual therapy on cervical active range of motion and pressure pain sensitivity in latent myofascial pain of the upper trapezius muscle: a randomized controlled trial

Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate effects of different manual techniques on cervical ranges of 17 motion and pressure pain sensitivity in subjects with latent trigger point of the upper trapezius muscle. 18 Methods: One hundred seventeen volunteers, with a unilateral latent trigger point on upper trapezius due to computer 19 work, were randomly divided into 5 groups: ischemic compression (IC) group (n = 24); passive stretching group (n = 20 23); muscle energy technique group (n = 23); and 2 control groups, wait-and-see group (n = 25) and placebo group 21 (n = 22). Cervical spine range of movement was measured using a cervical range of motion instrument as well as 22 pressure pain sensitivity by means of an algometer and a visual analog scale. Outcomes were assessed pretreatment, 23 immediately, and 24 hours after the intervention and 1 week later by a blind researcher. A 4 × 5 mixed repeated- 24 measures analysis of variance was used to examine the effects of the intervention and Cohen d coefficient was used. 25 Results: A group-by-time interaction was detected in all variables (P b .01), except contralateral rotation. The 26 immediate effect sizes of the contralateral flexion, ipsilateral rotation, and pressure pain threshold were large for 3 27 experimental groups. Nevertheless, after 24 hours and 1 week, only IC group maintained the effect size. 28 Conclusions: Manual techniques on upper trapezius with latent trigger point seemed to improve the cervical range of 29 motion and the pressure pain sensitivity. These effects persist after 1 week in the IC group. (J Manipulative Physiol 301 Ther 2013;xx:1-10)

Validation of a single-extraction procedure for sequential analysis of vitamin E, cholesterol, fatty acids, and total fat in seafood

Food lipid major components are usually analyzed by individual methodologies using diverse extractive procedures for each class. A simple and fast extractive procedure was devised for the sequential analysis of vitamin E, cholesterol, fatty acids, and total fat estimation in seafood, reducing analyses time and organic solvent consumption. Several liquid/liquid-based extractive methodologies using chlorinated and non-chlorinated organic solvents were tested. The extract obtained is used for vitamin E quantification (normal-phase HPLC with fluorescence detection), total cholesterol (normal-phase HPLC with UV detection), fatty acid profile, and total fat estimation (GC-FID), all accomplished in <40 min. The final methodology presents an adequate linearity range and sensitivity for tocopherol and cholesterol, with intra- and inter-day precisions (RSD) from 3 to 11 % for all the components. The developed methodology was applied to diverse seafood samples with positive outcomes, making it a very attractive technique for routine analyses in standard equipped laboratories in the food quality control field.

Analysis of UV spectral bands using multidimensional scaling

This study describes the change of the ultraviolet spectral bands starting from 0.1 to 5.0 nm slit width in the spectral range of 200–400 nm. The analysis of the spectral bands is carried out by using the multidimensional scaling (MDS) approach to reach the latent spectral background. This approach indicates that 0.1 nm slit width gives higher-order noise together with better spectral details. Thus, 5.0 nm slit width possesses the higher peak amplitude and lower-order noise together with poor spectral details. In the above-mentioned conditions, the main problem is to find the relationship between the spectral band properties and the slit width. For this aim, the MDS tool is to used recognize the hidden information of the ultraviolet spectra of sildenafil citrate by using a ShimadzuUV–VIS 2550, which is in theworld the best double monochromator instrument. In this study, the proposed mathematical approach gives the rich findings for the efficient use of the spectrophotometer in the qualitative and quantitative studies.

Comparative analysis of drills for composite laminates

The characteristics of carbon fiber-reinforced plastics allow a very broad range of uses. Drilling is often necessary to assemble different components, but this can lead to various forms of damage, such as delamination which is the most severe. However, a reduced thrust force can decrease the risk of delamination. In this work, two variables of the drilling process were compared: tool material and geometry, as well as the effect of feed rate and cutting speed. The parameters that were analyzed include: thrust force, delamination extension and mechanical strength through open-hole tensile test, bearing test, and flexural test on drilled plates. The present work shows that a proper combination of all the factors involved in drilling operations, like tool material, tool geometry and cutting parameters, such as feed rate or cutting speed, can lead to the reduction of delamination damage and, consequently, to the enhancement of the mechanical properties of laminated parts in complex structures, evaluated by open-hole, bearing, or flexural tests.

Electrochemical immunosensor for the analysis of the breast cancer biomarker HER2 ECD

Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) is a breast cancer biomarker that plays a major role in promoting breast cancer cell proliferation and malignant growth. The extracellular domain (ECD) of HER2 can be shed into the blood stream and its concentration is measurable in the serum fraction of blood. In this work an electrochemical immunosensor for the analysis of HER2 ECD in human serum samples was developed. To achieve this goal a screen-printed carbon electrode, modified with gold nanoparticles, was used as transducer surface. A sandwich immunoassay, using two monoclonal antibodies, was employed and the detection of the antibody–antigen interaction was performed through the analysis of an enzymatic reaction product by linear sweep voltammetry. Using the optimized experimental conditions the calibration curve (ip vs. log[HER2 ECD]) was established between 15 and 100 ng/mL and a limit of detection (LOD) of 4.4 ng/mL was achieved. These results indicate that the developed immunosensor could be a promising tool in breast cancer diagnostics, patient follow-up and monitoring of metastatic breast cancer since it allows quantification in a useful concentration range and has an LOD below the established cut-off value (15 ng/mL).