A Spatial Econometrics Analysis for Road Accidents in Lisbon

This paper presents a spatial econometrics analysis for the number of road accidents with victims in the smallest administrative divisions of Lisbon, considering as a baseline a log-Poisson model for environmental factors. Spatial correlation on data is investigated for data alone and for the residuals of the baseline model without and with spatial-autocorrelated and spatial-lagged terms. In all the cases no spatial autocorrelation was detected.

The Sticky Information Macro Model: Beyond Perfect Foresight

Sticky information monetary models have been used in the macroeconomic literature to explain some of the observed features regarding inflation dynamics. In this paper, we explore the consequences of relaxing the rational expectations assumption usually taken in this type of model; in particular, by considering expectations formed through adaptive learning, it is possible to arrive to results other than the trivial convergence to a fixed point long-term equilibrium. The results involve the possibility of endogenous cyclical motion (periodic and a-periodic), which emerges essentially in scenarios of hyperinflation. In low inflation settings, the introduction of learning implies a less severe impact of monetary shocks that, nevertheless, tend to last for additional time periods relative to the pure perfect foresight setup.

Accessibility and Local Development: Interaction between Cross-border Accessibility and Local Development in Portugal and Spain

One of de EU major concerns is cohesion and cross-border regional development. Usually cross-border regions are less dynamic, acting as bottlenecks mainly in peripheral territories. This paper is focused on the Portuguese-Spanish border using socio-economic and accessibility data. It considers Spatial Econometrics to produce statistical evidence on the relationship between accessibility and development at a local scale. A pilot study is conducted on North and Center region using variables such as population age, graduation characteristics, migrations, unemployment and daily accessibility to main towns in future this evaluation will be applied to the entire cross-border area between Portugal and Spain.