Stochastic effects in a seasonally forced epidemic model

The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity, is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that corresponds to childhood infectious diseases such as measles. The power spectrum of the stochastic fluctuations around the attractors of the deterministic system that describes the model in the thermodynamic limit is computed analytically and validated by stochastic simulations for large system sizes. Size effects are studied through additional simulations. Other effects such as switching between coexisting attractors induced by stochasticity often mentioned in the literature as playing an important role in the dynamics of childhood infectious diseases are also investigated. The main conclusion is that stochastic amplification, rather than these effects, is the key ingredient to understand the observed incidence patterns.

Otimização de um sistema de "Free-Cooling" de uma instalação de climatização: incluindo a definição de um algoritmo de controlo de funcionamento

A utilização de equipamentos de climatização é cada vez mais frequente, e surgem novas tecnologias para aumentar a eficiência do processo, e neste caso, a opção da instalação de um sistema de Unidade de Tratamento de Ar com Economizador é a fundamental temática deste trabalho de dissertação. O “Free-Cooling” baseia-se na utilização total ou parcial do ar exterior para proceder à climatização de um espaço, quando se verificam as condições ótimas para o processo, e quando o sistema apresenta um controlador que permita gerir a abertura dos registos face à temperatura exterior e interior medida. A análise das condições exteriores e interiores é fundamental para dimensionar um Economizador. É necessário determinar o tipo de clima do local para fazer a seleção do tipo de controlo do processo, e recolher também, o perfil de temperaturas exterior para justificar a utilização de “Free-Cooling” no local. A determinação das condições interiores como a quantificação da utilização da iluminação, ocupação e equipamentos, é necessária para determinar a potência das baterias de arrefecimento ou aquecimento, e no caso de ser utilizado “Free-Cooling”, determinar o caudal de ar exterior a insuflar. O balanço térmico das instalações explicita todas as cargas influentes no edifício, e permite quantificar a potência necessária para climatização. Depois, adicionando o Economizador no sistema e comparando os dois sistemas, verifica-se a redução dos custos de utilização da bateria de arrefecimento. O desenvolvimento de um algoritmo de controlo é fundamental para garantir a eficiência do Economizador, onde o controlo dos registos de admissão e retorno de ar é obrigatoriamente relacionado com a leitura dos sensores de temperatura exterior e interior. A quantidade de ar novo insuflado no espaço depende, por fim, da relação entre a carga sensível do local e a diferença de temperatura lida entre os dois sensores.

Spinning reserve and emission unit commitment through stochastic optimization

This paper proposes a stochastic mixed-integer linear approach to deal with a short-term unit commitment problem with uncertainty on a deregulated electricity market that includes day-ahead bidding and bilateral contracts. The proposed approach considers the typically operation constraints on the thermal units and a spinning reserve. The uncertainty is due to the electricity prices, which are modeled by a scenario set, allowing an acceptable computation. Moreover, emission allowances are considered in a manner to allow for the consideration of environmental constraints. A case study to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach is presented and an assessment of the cost for the spinning reserve is obtained by a comparison between the situation with and without spinning reserve.

Spinning reserve and emission unit commitment through stochastic optimization

This paper proposes a stochastic mixed-integer linear approach to deal with a short-term unit commitment problem with uncertainty on a deregulated electricity market that includes day-ahead bidding and bilateral contracts. The proposed approach considers the typically operation constraints on the thermal units and a spinning reserve. The uncertainty is due to the electricity prices, which are modeled by a scenario set, allowing an acceptable computation. Moreover, emission allowances are considered in a manner to allow for the consideration of environmental constraints. A case study to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach is presented and an assessment of the cost for the spinning reserve is obtained by a comparison between the situation with and without spinning reserve.

Evidence for non-coaxiality of ferrimagnetic and paramagnetic fabrics, developed during magma flow and cooling in a thick mafic dyke

A detailed analysis of fabrics of the chilled margin of a thick dolerite dyke (Foum Zguid dyke, Southern Morocco) was performed in order to better understand the development of sub-fabrics during dyke emplacement and cooling. AMS data were complemented with measurements of paramagnetic and ferrimagnetic fabrics (measured with high field torque magnetometer), neutron texture and microstructural analyses. The ferrimagnetic and AMS fabrics are similar, indicating that the ferrimagnetic minerals dominate the AMS signal. The paramagnetic fabric is different from the previous ones. Based on the crystallization timing of the different mineralogical phases, the paramagnetic fabric appears related to the upward flow, while the ferrimagnetic fabric rather reflects the late-stage of dyke emplacement and cooling stresses. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A stochastic programming approach for the development of offering strategies for a wind power producer

A stochastic programming approach is proposed in this paper for the development of offering strategies for a wind power producer. The optimization model is characterized by making the analysis of several scenarios and treating simultaneously two kinds of uncertainty: wind power and electricity market prices. The approach developed allows evaluating alternative production and offers strategies to submit to the electricity market with the ultimate goal of maximizing profits. An innovative comparative study is provided, where the imbalances are treated differently. Also, an application to two new realistic case studies is presented. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Self-scheduling and bidding strategies of thermal units with stochastic emission constraints

This paper is on the self-scheduling problem for a thermal power producer taking part in a pool-based electricity market as a price-taker, having bilateral contracts and emission-constrained. An approach based on stochastic mixed-integer linear programming approach is proposed for solving the self-scheduling problem. Uncertainty regarding electricity price is considered through a set of scenarios computed by simulation and scenario-reduction. Thermal units are modelled by variable costs, start-up costs and technical operating constraints, such as: forbidden operating zones, ramp up/down limits and minimum up/down time limits. A requirement on emission allowances to mitigate carbon footprint is modelled by a stochastic constraint. Supply functions for different emission allowance levels are accessed in order to establish the optimal bidding strategy. A case study is presented to illustrate the usefulness and the proficiency of the proposed approach in supporting biding strategies. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Activation of effector immune cells promotes tumor stochastic extinction: A homotopy analysis approach

In this article we provide homotopy solutions of a cancer nonlinear model describing the dynamics of tumor cells in interaction with healthy and effector immune cells. We apply a semi-analytic technique for solving strongly nonlinear systems – the Step Homotopy Analysis Method (SHAM). This algorithm, based on a modification of the standard homotopy analysis method (HAM), allows to obtain a one-parameter family of explicit series solutions. By using the homotopy solutions, we first investigate the dynamical effect of the activation of the effector immune cells in the deterministic dynamics, showing that an increased activation makes the system to enter into chaotic dynamics via a period-doubling bifurcation scenario. Then, by adding demographic stochasticity into the homotopy solutions, we show, as a difference from the deterministic dynamics, that an increased activation of the immune cells facilitates cancer clearance involving tumor cells extinction and healthy cells persistence. Our results highlight the importance of therapies activating the effector immune cells at early stages of cancer progression.