Stochastic effects in a seasonally forced epidemic model

The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity, is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that corresponds to childhood infectious diseases such as measles. The power spectrum of the stochastic fluctuations around the attractors of the deterministic system that describes the model in the thermodynamic limit is computed analytically and validated by stochastic simulations for large system sizes. Size effects are studied through additional simulations. Other effects such as switching between coexisting attractors induced by stochasticity often mentioned in the literature as playing an important role in the dynamics of childhood infectious diseases are also investigated. The main conclusion is that stochastic amplification, rather than these effects, is the key ingredient to understand the observed incidence patterns.

Cultural organizations and communication in portuguese decentralization policy

This paper intends to show the Portuguese municipalities’ commitment, since the first decade of this century, in cultural facilities of municipal management and how it provided 12 of the 18 district capitals of mainland Portugal with cultural equipment, but after all we want to know if this effort resulted in a regular, diverse, and innovative schedule. Investing in urban regeneration, local governments have tried to convert cities’ demographic changes (strengthening of the most educated and professionally qualified groups) in effective cultural demands that consolidate the three axes of development competitiveness-innovation-creativity. What the empirical study to the programming and communication proposals of those equipment shows is that it is not enough to provide cities with facilities; to escape to a utilitarian conception of culture, there is a whole work to be done so that such equipment be experienced and felt as new public sphere. Equipment in which proposals go through a fluid bind, constructed through space and discourse with local community, devoted a diversified and innovative bet full filling development axis. This paper presents in a systematic way what contributes to this binding on the analyzed equipment.

Cultural organizations and communication in portuguese decentralization policy

This presentation intends to show to what extent the Portuguese municipalities’ commitment, from the first decade of this century, in cultural facilities of municipal management and which has provided 12 of the 18 district capitals of mainland Portugal with equipment, resulted in a regular, diverse and innovative schedule. Investing in urban regeneration, local government has tried to convert cities’ demographic changes (strengthening of the most educated and professionally qualified groups) in effective cultural demands that consolidate the three axes of development competitiveness-innovation-creativity. What the empirical study to the programming and communication proposals of those equipment shows is that it is not enough to provide cities with facilities; to escape to a utilitarian conception of culture, there is a whole work to be done so that such equipment be experienced and felt as new public sphere. Equipment in which proposals go through a fluid bind, constructed through space and discourse with local community, devotes a diversified and innovative bet full filling development axis. This paper presents in a systematic way what contributes to this binding on the analyzed equipment.

Spinning reserve and emission unit commitment through stochastic optimization

This paper proposes a stochastic mixed-integer linear approach to deal with a short-term unit commitment problem with uncertainty on a deregulated electricity market that includes day-ahead bidding and bilateral contracts. The proposed approach considers the typically operation constraints on the thermal units and a spinning reserve. The uncertainty is due to the electricity prices, which are modeled by a scenario set, allowing an acceptable computation. Moreover, emission allowances are considered in a manner to allow for the consideration of environmental constraints. A case study to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach is presented and an assessment of the cost for the spinning reserve is obtained by a comparison between the situation with and without spinning reserve.

OPTIMAX 2014 - Radiation dose and image quality optimisation in medical imaging

Medical imaging is a powerful diagnostic tool. Consequently, the number of medical images taken has increased vastly over the past few decades. The most common medical imaging techniques use X-radiation as the primary investigative tool. The main limitation of using X-radiation is associated with the risk of developing cancers. Alongside this, technology has advanced and more centres now use CT scanners; these can incur significant radiation burdens compared with traditional X-ray imaging systems. The net effect is that the population radiation burden is rising steadily. Risk arising from X-radiation for diagnostic medical purposes needs minimising and one way to achieve this is through reducing radiation dose whilst optimising image quality. All ages are affected by risk from X-radiation however the increasing population age highlights the elderly as a new group that may require consideration. Of greatest concern are paediatric patients: firstly they are more sensitive to radiation; secondly their younger age means that the potential detriment to this group is greater. Containment of radiation exposure falls to a number of professionals within medical fields, from those who request imaging to those who produce the image. These staff are supported in their radiation protection role by engineers, physicists and technicians. It is important to realise that radiation protection is currently a major European focus of interest and minimum competence levels in radiation protection for radiographers have been defined through the integrated activities of the EU consortium called MEDRAPET. The outcomes of this project have been used by the European Federation of Radiographer Societies to describe the European Qualifications Framework levels for radiographers in radiation protection. Though variations exist between European countries radiographers and nuclear medicine technologists are normally the professional groups who are responsible for exposing screening populations and patients to X-radiation. As part of their training they learn fundamental principles of radiation protection and theoretical and practical approaches to dose minimisation. However dose minimisation is complex – it is not simply about reducing X-radiation without taking into account major contextual factors. These factors relate to the real world of clinical imaging and include the need to measure clinical image quality and lesion visibility when applying X-radiation dose reduction strategies. This requires the use of validated psychological and physics techniques to measure clinical image quality and lesion perceptibility.

Spinning reserve and emission unit commitment through stochastic optimization

This paper proposes a stochastic mixed-integer linear approach to deal with a short-term unit commitment problem with uncertainty on a deregulated electricity market that includes day-ahead bidding and bilateral contracts. The proposed approach considers the typically operation constraints on the thermal units and a spinning reserve. The uncertainty is due to the electricity prices, which are modeled by a scenario set, allowing an acceptable computation. Moreover, emission allowances are considered in a manner to allow for the consideration of environmental constraints. A case study to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach is presented and an assessment of the cost for the spinning reserve is obtained by a comparison between the situation with and without spinning reserve.

Optimisation of exposure parameters for spinal curvature measurements in paediatric radiography

This review aims to identify strategies to optimise radiography practice using digital technologies, for full spine studies on paediatrics focusing particularly on methods used to diagnose and measure severity of spinal curvatures. The literature search was performed on different databases (PubMed, Google Scholar and ScienceDirect) and relevant websites (e.g., American College of Radiology and International Commission on Radiological Protection) to identify guidelines and recent studies focused on dose optimisation in paediatrics using digital technologies. Plain radiography was identified as the most accurate method. The American College of Radiology (ACR) and European Commission (EC) provided two guidelines that were identified as the most relevant to the subject. The ACR guidelines were updated in 2014; however these guidelines do not provide detailed guidance on technical exposure parameters. The EC guidelines are more complete but are dedicated to screen film systems. Other studies provided reviews on the several exposure parameters that should be included for optimisation, such as tube current, tube voltage and source-to-image distance; however, only explored few of these parameters and not all of them together. One publication explored all parameters together but this was for adults only. Due to lack of literature on exposure parameters for paediatrics, more research is required to guide and harmonise practice.

Optimisation of paediatrics computed radiography for full spine curvature measurements using a phantom: a pilot study

Aim: Optimise a set of exposure factors, with the lowest effective dose, to delineate spinal curvature with the modified Cobb method in a full spine using computed radiography (CR) for a 5-year-old paediatric anthropomorphic phantom. Methods: Images were acquired by varying a set of parameters: positions (antero-posterior (AP), posteroanterior (PA) and lateral), kilo-voltage peak (kVp) (66-90), source-to-image distance (SID) (150 to 200cm), broad focus and the use of a grid (grid in/out) to analyse the impact on E and image quality (IQ). IQ was analysed applying two approaches: objective [contrast-to-noise-ratio/(CNR] and perceptual, using 5 observers. Monte-Carlo modelling was used for dose estimation. Cohen’s Kappa coefficient was used to calculate inter-observer-variability. The angle was measured using Cobb’s method on lateral projections under different imaging conditions. Results: PA promoted the lowest effective dose (0.013 mSv) compared to AP (0.048 mSv) and lateral (0.025 mSv). The exposure parameters that allowed lower dose were 200cm SID, 90 kVp, broad focus and grid out for paediatrics using an Agfa CR system. Thirty-seven images were assessed for IQ and thirty-two were classified adequate. Cobb angle measurements varied between 16°±2.9 and 19.9°±0.9. Conclusion: Cobb angle measurements can be performed using the lowest dose with a low contrast-tonoise ratio. The variation on measurements for this was ±2.9° and this is within the range of acceptable clinical error without impact on clinical diagnosis. Further work is recommended on improvement to the sample size and a more robust perceptual IQ assessment protocol for observers.

A stochastic programming approach for the development of offering strategies for a wind power producer

A stochastic programming approach is proposed in this paper for the development of offering strategies for a wind power producer. The optimization model is characterized by making the analysis of several scenarios and treating simultaneously two kinds of uncertainty: wind power and electricity market prices. The approach developed allows evaluating alternative production and offers strategies to submit to the electricity market with the ultimate goal of maximizing profits. An innovative comparative study is provided, where the imbalances are treated differently. Also, an application to two new realistic case studies is presented. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Self-scheduling and bidding strategies of thermal units with stochastic emission constraints

This paper is on the self-scheduling problem for a thermal power producer taking part in a pool-based electricity market as a price-taker, having bilateral contracts and emission-constrained. An approach based on stochastic mixed-integer linear programming approach is proposed for solving the self-scheduling problem. Uncertainty regarding electricity price is considered through a set of scenarios computed by simulation and scenario-reduction. Thermal units are modelled by variable costs, start-up costs and technical operating constraints, such as: forbidden operating zones, ramp up/down limits and minimum up/down time limits. A requirement on emission allowances to mitigate carbon footprint is modelled by a stochastic constraint. Supply functions for different emission allowance levels are accessed in order to establish the optimal bidding strategy. A case study is presented to illustrate the usefulness and the proficiency of the proposed approach in supporting biding strategies. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Activation of effector immune cells promotes tumor stochastic extinction: A homotopy analysis approach

In this article we provide homotopy solutions of a cancer nonlinear model describing the dynamics of tumor cells in interaction with healthy and effector immune cells. We apply a semi-analytic technique for solving strongly nonlinear systems – the Step Homotopy Analysis Method (SHAM). This algorithm, based on a modification of the standard homotopy analysis method (HAM), allows to obtain a one-parameter family of explicit series solutions. By using the homotopy solutions, we first investigate the dynamical effect of the activation of the effector immune cells in the deterministic dynamics, showing that an increased activation makes the system to enter into chaotic dynamics via a period-doubling bifurcation scenario. Then, by adding demographic stochasticity into the homotopy solutions, we show, as a difference from the deterministic dynamics, that an increased activation of the immune cells facilitates cancer clearance involving tumor cells extinction and healthy cells persistence. Our results highlight the importance of therapies activating the effector immune cells at early stages of cancer progression.