Gestão do conhecimento e do capital intelectual - Estudo sobre a divulgação do capital intelectual em empresas portuguesas

Mestrado em Gestão e Empreendedorismo

Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

A checkpointing-enabled and resource-aware Java Virtual Machine for efficient and robust e-Science applications in grid environments

Object-oriented programming languages presently are the dominant paradigm of application development (e. g., Java,. NET). Lately, increasingly more Java applications have long (or very long) execution times and manipulate large amounts of data/information, gaining relevance in fields related with e-Science (with Grid and Cloud computing). Significant examples include Chemistry, Computational Biology and Bio-informatics, with many available Java-based APIs (e. g., Neobio). Often, when the execution of such an application is terminated abruptly because of a failure (regardless of the cause being a hardware of software fault, lack of available resources, etc.), all of its work already performed is simply lost, and when the application is later re-initiated, it has to restart all its work from scratch, wasting resources and time, while also being prone to another failure and may delay its completion with no deadline guarantees. Our proposed solution to address these issues is through incorporating mechanisms for checkpointing and migration in a JVM. These make applications more robust and flexible by being able to move to other nodes, without any intervention from the programmer. This article provides a solution to Java applications with long execution times, by extending a JVM (Jikes research virtual machine) with such mechanisms. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.