From efficiency to optimality in proportional reinsurance under group correlation

Based on our recent discovery of closed form formulae of efficient Mean Variance retentions in variable quota-share proportional reinsurance under group correlation, we analyzed the influence of different combination of correlation and safety loading levels on the efficient frontier, both in a single period stylized problem and in a multiperiod one.

Risk Analysis and Behavior of Electricity Portfolio Aggregator

The scope of this paper is to adapt the standard mean-variance model of Henry Markowitz theory, creating a simulation tool to find the optimal configuration of the portfolio aggregator, calculate its profitability and risk. Currently, there is a deep discussion going on among the power system society about the structure and architecture of the future electric system. In this environment, policy makers and electric utilities find new approaches to access the electricity market; this configures new challenging positions in order to find innovative strategies and methodologies. Decentralized power generation is gaining relevance in liberalized markets, and small and medium size electricity consumers are also become producers (“prosumers”). In this scenario an electric aggregator is an entity that joins a group of electric clients, customers, producers, “prosumers” together as a single purchasing unit to negotiate the purchase and sale of electricity. The aggregator conducts research on electricity prices, contract terms and conditions in order to promote better energy prices for their clients and allows small and medium customers to benefit improved market prices.

Estimation of signal subspace on hyperspectral data

Dimensionality reduction plays a crucial role in many hyperspectral data processing and analysis algorithms. This paper proposes a new mean squared error based approach to determine the signal subspace in hyperspectral imagery. The method first estimates the signal and noise correlations matrices, then it selects the subset of eigenvalues that best represents the signal subspace in the least square sense. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated using simulated and real hyperspectral images.

Hyperspectral signal subspace estimation

Given an hyperspectral image, the determination of the number of endmembers and the subspace where they live without any prior knowledge is crucial to the success of hyperspectral image analysis. This paper introduces a new minimum mean squared error based approach to infer the signal subspace in hyperspectral imagery. The method, termed hyperspectral signal identification by minimum error (HySime), is eigendecomposition based and it does not depend on any tuning parameters. It first estimates the signal and noise correlation matrices and then selects the subset of eigenvalues that best represents the signal subspace in the least squared error sense. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated using simulated data based on U.S.G.S. laboratory spectra and real hyperspectral data collected by the AVIRIS sensor over Cuprite, Nevada.

Propriedades psicométricas da versão portuguesa do Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire na miocardiopatia dilatada com insuficiência cardíaca congestiva

Vários estudos demonstraram que os doentes com insuficiência cardíaca congestiva (ICC) têm um compromisso da qualidade de vida relacionada com a saúde (QVRS), tendo esta, nos últimos anos, vindo a tornar-se um endpoint primário quando se analisa o impacto do tratamento de situações crónicas como a ICC. Objectivos: Avaliar as propriedades psicométricas da versão portuguesa de um novo instrumento específico para medir a QVRS na ICC em doentes hospitalizados: o Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). População e Métodos: O KCCQ foi aplicado a uma amostra consecutiva de 193 doentes internados por ICC. Destes, 105 repetiram esta avaliação 3 meses após admissão hospitalar, não havendo eventos ocorridos durante este período de tempo. A idade era 64,4± 12,4 anos (entre 21 e 88), com 72,5% a pertencer ao sexo masculino, sendo a ICC de etiologia isquémica em 42%. Resultados: Esta versão do KCCQ foi sujeita a validação estatística semelhante à americana com a avaliação da fidelidade e validade. A fidelidade foi avaliada pela consistência interna dos domínios e dos somatórios, apresentando valores Alpha de Cronbach idênticos nos vários domínios e somatórios ( =0,50 a =0,94). A validade foi analisada pela convergência, pela sensibilidade às diferenças entre grupos e pela sensibilidade à alteração da condição clínica. Avaliou-se a validade convergente de todos os domínios relacionados com funcionalidade, pela relação verificada entre estes e uma medida de funcionalidade, a classificação da New York Heart Association (NYHA), tendo-se verificado correlações significativas (p<0,01), como medida para avaliar a funcionalidade em doentes com ICC. Efectuou-se uma análise de variância entre o domínio limitação física, os somatórios e as classes da NYHA, tendo-se encontrado diferenças estatisticamente significativas (F=23,4; F=36,4; F=37,4; p=0,0001), na capacidade de descriminação da gravidade da condição clínica. Foi realizada uma segunda avaliação em 105 doentes na consulta do 3º mês após a intervenção clínica, tendo-se observado alterações significativas nas médias dos domínios avaliados entre o internamento e a consulta (diferenças de 14,9 a 30,6 numa escala de 0-100), indicando que os domínios avaliados são sensíveis à mudança da condição clínica. A correlação interdimensões da qualidade de vida que compõe este instrumento é moderada, sugerindo dimensões independentes, apoiando a sua estrutura multifactorial e a adequabilidade desta medida para a sua avaliação. Conclusão: O KCCQ é um instrumento válido, sensível à mudança e específico para medir a QVRS numa população portuguesa com miocardiopatia dilatada e ICC. ABSTRACT - Several studies have shown that patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) have a compromised health-related quality of life (HRQL), and this, in recent years, has become a primary endpoint when considering the impact of treatment of chronic conditions such as CHF. Objectives: To evaluate the psychometric properties of the Portuguese version of a new specific instrument to measure HRQL in patients hospitalized for CHF: the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). Methods: The KCCQ was applied to a sample of 193 consecutive patients hospitalized for CHF. Of these, 105 repeated the assessment 3 months after admission, with no events during this period. Mean age was 64.4±12.4 years (21-88), and 72.5% were 72.5% male. CHF was of ischemic etiology in 42% of cases. Results: This version of the KCCQ was subjected to statistical validation, with assessment of reliability and validity, similar to the American version. Reliability was assessed by the internal consistency of the domains and summary scores, which showed similar values of Cronbach alpha (0.50-0.94). Validity was assessed by convergence, sensitivity to differences between groups and sensitivity to changes in clinical condition. We evaluated the convergent validity of all domains related to functionality, through the relationship between them and a measure of functionality, the New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification. Significant correlations were found (p<0.01) for this measure of functionality in patients with CHF. Analysis of variance between the physical limitation domain, the summary scores and NYHA class was performed and statistically significant differences were found (F=23.4; F=36.4; F=37.4, p=0.0001) in the ability to discriminate severity of clinical condition. A second evaluation was performed on 105 patients at the 3-month follow-up outpatient appointment, and significant changes were observed in the mean scores of the domains assessed between hospital admission and the clinic appointment (differences from 14.9 to 30.6 on a scale of 0-100), indicating that the domains assessed are sensitive to changes in clinical condition. The correlation between dimensions of quality of life in the KCCQ is moderate, suggesting that the dimensions are independent, supporting the multifactorial nature of HRQL and the suitability of this measure for its evaluation. Conclusion: The KCCQ is a valid instrument, sensitive to change and a specific measure of HRQL in a population with dilated cardiomyopathy and CHF.

Simulation of default events in a CDX and estimation of the spread

The portfolio generating the iTraxx EUR index is modeled by coupled Markov chains. Each of the industries of the portfolio evolves according to its own Markov transition matrix. Using a variant of the method of moments, the model parameters are estimated from a data set of Standard and Poor's. Swap spreads are evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulations. Along with an actuarially fair spread, at least squares spread is considered.

A denoising approach for iterative side information creation in distributed video coding

In distributed video coding, motion estimation is typically performed at the decoder to generate the side information, increasing the decoder complexity while providing low complexity encoding in comparison with predictive video coding. Motion estimation can be performed once to create the side information or several times to refine the side information quality along the decoding process. In this paper, motion estimation is performed at the decoder side to generate multiple side information hypotheses which are adaptively and dynamically combined, whenever additional decoded information is available. The proposed iterative side information creation algorithm is inspired in video denoising filters and requires some statistics of the virtual channel between each side information hypothesis and the original data. With the proposed denoising algorithm for side information creation, a RD performance gain up to 1.2 dB is obtained for the same bitrate.

A hybrid MLS technique for room impulse response estimation

The measurement of room impulse response (RIR) when there are high background noise levels frequently means one must deal with very low signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). if such is the case, the measurement might yield unreliable results, even when synchronous averaging techniques are used. Furthermore, if there are non-linearities in the apparatus or system time variances, the final SNR can be severely degraded. The test signals used in RIR measurement are often disturbed by non-stationary ambient noise components. A novel approach based on the energy analysis of ambient noise - both in the time and in frequency - was considered. A modified maximum length sequence (MLS) measurement technique. referred to herein as the hybrid MLS technique, was developed for use in room acoustics. The technique consists of reducing the noise energy of the captured sequences before applying the averaging technique in order to improve the overall SNRs and frequency response accuracy. Experiments were conducted under real conditions with different types of underlying ambient noises. Results are shown and discussed. Advantages and disadvantages of the hybrid MLS technique over standard MLS technique are evaluated and discussed. Our findings show that the new technique leads to a significant increase in the overall SNR. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mutation accumulation in Tetrahymena

Background - The rate and fitness effects of mutations are key in understanding the evolution of every species. Traditionally, these parameters are estimated in mutation accumulation experiments where replicate lines are propagated in conditions that allow mutations to randomly accumulate without the purging effect of natural selection. These experiments have been performed with many model organisms but we still lack empirical estimates of the rate and effects of mutation in the protists. Results - We performed a mutation accumulation (MA) experiment in Tetrahymena thermophila, a species that can reproduce sexually and asexually in nature, and measured both the mean decline and variance increase in fitness of 20 lines. The results obtained with T. thermophila were compared with T. pyriformis that is an obligate asexual species. We show that MA lines of T. thermophila go to extinction at a rate of 1.25 clonal extinctions per bottleneck. In contrast, populations of T. pyriformis show a much higher resistance to extinction. Variation in gene copy number is likely to be a key factor in explaining these results, and indeed we show that T. pyriformis has a higher mean copy number per cell than T. thermophila. From fitness measurements during the MA experiment, we infer a rate of mutation to copy number variation of 0.0333 per haploid MAC genome of T. thermophila and a mean effect against copy number variation of 0.16. A strong effect of population size in the rate of fitness decline was also found, consistent with the increased power of natural selection. Conclusions - The rate of clonal extinction measured for T. thermophila is characteristic of a mutational degradation and suggests that this species must undergo sexual reproduction to avoid the deleterious effects detected in the laboratory experiments. We also suggest that an increase in chromosomal copy number associated with the phenotypic assortment of amitotic divisions can provide an alternative mechanism to escape the deleterious effect of random chromosomal copy number variation in species like T. pyriformis that lack the resetting mechanism of sexual reproduction. Our results are relevant to the understanding of cell line longevity and senescence in ciliates.

A comprehensive approach to evaluate nutritional status in Crohn's patients in the era of biologic therapy: a case-control study

Objectives - Evaluate the nutritional status of patients with inactive or mildly active Crohn's disease (CD), and identify possible causes for potential deficiencies. Methods - A total of 78 CD patients and 80 healthy controls were evaluated in respect of nutritional status, dietary intake, and life styles factors. Results - These 73/78 CD patients were on immunomodulating therapies. Mean body mass index (BMI) was lower in patients as compared to controls (P= 0.006) but 32% of CD patients and 33.8% of controls had a BMI > 25, whereas 8% and 23.8% in each group, respectively, were obese (BMI > 30Kg/m(2)). Fat free mass was significantly decreased in both genders (P < 0.05) whereas fat mass was decreased only in males (P= 0.01). Energy intake was significantly lower in CD patients (P < 0.0001) and we observed significantly lower adjusted mean daily intakes of carbohydrates, monounsaturated fat, fiber, calcium, and vitamins C, D, E, and K (P < 0.05). 29% of patients had excluded grains from their usual diet, 28% milk, 18% vegetables, and 11% fruits. Milk exclusion resulted in a significantly lower consumption of calcium and vitamin K (P < 0.001) and the exclusion of vegetables was associated to a lower consumption of vitamins C and E (P < 0.05). Physical activity was significantly lower in CD patients (P= 0.01) and this lack of physical activity was inversely correlated with increased fat mass percentage (r=-0.315, P= 0.001). Conclusions - Results showed that the most prevalent form of malnutrition in CD patients was an excess of body weight, which was concomitant with an inadequate dietary intake, namely micronutrients, clearly related to dietary exclusion of certain foods.

Capillary bridging and long-range attractive forces in a mean-field approach

When a mixture is confined, one of the phases can condense out. This condensate, which is otherwise metastable in the bulk, is stabilized by the presence of surfaces. In a sphere-plane geometry, routinely used in atomic force microscope and surface force apparatus, it, can form a bridge connecting the surfaces. The pressure drop in the bridge gives rise to additional long-range attractive forces between them. By minimizing the free energy of a binary mixture we obtain the force-distance curves as well as the structural phase diagram of the configuration with the bridge. Numerical results predict a discontinuous transition between the states with and without the bridge and linear force-distance curves with hysteresis. We also show that similar phenomenon can be observed in a number of different systems, e.g., liquid crystals and polymer mixtures. (C). 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Estimação de cobertura rádio em comunicações ferroviárias

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia de Electrónica e Telecomunicações

Influência dos métodos de correção de atenuação na quantificação da função renal relativa em cintigrafia renal com 99mTc-DMSA

Introdução – A estimativa da função renal relativa (FRR) através de cintigrafia renal (CR) com ácido dimercaptossuccínico marcado com tecnécio-99 metaestável (99mTc-DMSA) pode ser influenciada pela profundidade renal (PR), atendendo ao efeito de atenuação por parte dos tecidos moles que envolvem os rins. Dado que raramente é conhecida esta mesma PR, diferentes métodos de correção de atenuação (CA) foram desenvolvidos, nomeadamente os que utilizam fórmulas empíricas, como os de Raynaud, de Taylor ou de Tonnesen, ou recorrendo à aplicação direta da média geométrica (MG). Objetivos – Identificar a influência dos diferentes métodos de CA na quantificação da função renal relativa através da CR com 99mTc-DMSA e avaliar a respetiva variabilidade dos resultados de PR. Metodologia – Trinta e um pacientes com indicação para realização de CR com 99mTc-DMSA foram submetidos ao mesmo protocolo de aquisição. O processamento foi efetuado por dois operadores independentes, três vezes por exame, variando para o mesmo processamento o método de determinação da FRR: Raynaud, Taylor, Tonnesen, MG ou sem correção de atenuação (SCA). Aplicou-se o teste de Friedman para o estudo da influência dos diferentes métodos de CA e a correlação de Pearson para a associação e significância dos valores de PR com as variáveis idade, peso e altura. Resultados – Da aplicação do teste de Friedman verificaram-se diferenças estatisticamente significativas entre os vários métodos (p=0,000), excetuando as comparações SCA/Raynaud, Tonnesen/MG e Taylor/MG (p=1,000) para ambos os rins. A correlação de Pearson demonstra que a variável peso apresenta uma correlação forte positiva com todos os métodos de cálculo da PR. Conclusões – O método de Taylor, entre os três métodos de cálculo de PR, é o que apresenta valores de FRR mais próximos da MG. A escolha do método de CA influencia significativamente os parâmetros quantitativos de FRR.

Electric vehicles as a mean to reduce, energy, emissions and electricity costs

Electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which obtain their fuel from the grid by charging a battery, are set to be introduced into the mass market and expected to contribute to oil consumption reduction. This research is concerned with studying the potential impacts on the electric utilities of large-scale adoption of plug-in electric vehicles from the perspective of electricity demand, fossil fuels use, CO2 emissions and energy costs. Simulations were applied to the Portuguese case study in order to analyze what would be the optimal recharge profile and EV penetration in an energy-oriented, an emissions-oriented and a cost-oriented objective. The objectives considered were: The leveling of load profiles, minimization of daily emissions and minimization of daily wholesale costs. Almost all solutions point to an off-peak recharge and a 50% reduction in daily wholesale costs can be verified from a peak recharge scenario to an off-peak recharge for a 2 million EVs in 2020. A 15% improvement in the daily total wholesale costs can be verified in the costs minimization objective when compared with the off-peak scenario result.

The electric vehicles as a mean to reduce Co2 emissions and energy costs in isolated regions: the São Miguel (Azores) case study

Most of small islands around the world today, are dependent on imported fossil fuels for the majority of their energy needs especially for transport activities and electricity production. The use of locally renewable energy resources and the implementation of energy efficiency measures could make a significant contribution to their economic development by reducing fossil fuel imports. An electrification of vehicles has been suggested as a way to both reduce pollutant emissions and increase security of supply of the transportation sector by reducing the dependence on oil products imports and facilitate the accommodation of renewable electricity generation, such as wind and, in the case of volcanic islands like Sao Miguel (Azores) of the geothermal energy whose penetration has been limited by the valley electricity consumption level. In this research, three scenarios of EV penetration were studied and it was verified that, for a 15% LD fleet replacement by EVs with 90% of all energy needs occurring during the night, the accommodation of 10 MW of new geothermal capacity becomes viable. Under this scenario, reductions of 8% in electricity costs, 14% in energy, 23% in fossil fuels use and CO2 emissions for the transportation and electricity production sectors could be expected.