11 resultados para markov chain model
em Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa - Portugal
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The authors extend their earlier work on the stability of a reacting binary polymer blend with respect to demixing [D. J. Read, Macromolecules 31, 899 (1998); P. I. C. Teixeira , Macromolecules 33, 387 (2000)] to the case where one of the polymers is rod-like and may order nematically. As before, the authors combine the random phase approximation for the free energy with a Markov chain model for the chemistry to obtain the spinodal as a function of the relevant degrees of reaction. These are then calculated by assuming a simple second-order chemical kinetics. Results are presented, for linear systems, which illustrate the effects of varying the proportion of coils and rods, their relative sizes, and the strength of the nematic interaction between the rods. (c) 2007 American Institute of Physics.
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Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia
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This article presents a Markov chain framework to characterize the behavior of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX index). Two possible regimes are considered: high volatility and low volatility. The specification accounts for deviations from normality and the existence of persistence in the evolution of the VIX index. Since the time evolution of the VIX index seems to indicate that its conditional variance is not constant over time, I consider two different versions of the model. In the first one, the variance of the index is a function of the volatility regime, whereas the second version includes an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) specification for the conditional variance of the index.
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The Tevatron has measured a discrepancy relative to the standard model prediction in the forward-backward asymmetry in top quark pair production. This asymmetry grows with the rapidity difference of the two top quarks. It also increases with the invariant mass of the t (t) over bar pair, reaching, for high invariant masses, 3.4 standard deviations above the next-to-leading order prediction for the charge asymmetry of QCD. However, perfect agreement between experiment and the standard model was found in both total and differential cross section of top quark pair production. As this result could be a sign of new physics we have parametrized this new physics in terms of a complete set of dimension six operators involving the top quark. We have then used a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach in order to find the best set of parameters that fits the data, using all available data regarding top quark pair production at the Tevatron. We have found that just a very small number of operators are able to fit the data better than the standard model.
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The theory of ecological stoichiometry considers ecological interactions among species with different chemical compositions. Both experimental and theoretical investigations have shown the importance of species composition in the outcome of the population dynamics. A recent study of a theoretical three-species food chain model considering stoichiometry [B. Deng and I. Loladze, Chaos 17, 033108 (2007)] shows that coexistence between two consumers predating on the same prey is possible via chaos. In this work we study the topological and dynamical measures of the chaotic attractors found in such a model under ecological relevant parameters. By using the theory of symbolic dynamics, we first compute the topological entropy associated with unimodal Poincareacute return maps obtained by Deng and Loladze from a dimension reduction. With this measure we numerically prove chaotic competitive coexistence, which is characterized by positive topological entropy and positive Lyapunov exponents, achieved when the first predator reduces its maximum growth rate, as happens at increasing delta(1). However, for higher values of delta(1) the dynamics become again stable due to an asymmetric bubble-like bifurcation scenario. We also show that a decrease in the efficiency of the predator sensitive to prey's quality (increasing parameter zeta) stabilizes the dynamics. Finally, we estimate the fractal dimension of the chaotic attractors for the stoichiometric ecological model.
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We investigate, via numerical simulations, mean field, and density functional theories, the magnetic response of a dipolar hard sphere fluid at low temperatures and densities, in the region of strong association. The proposed parameter-free theory is able to capture both the density and temperature dependence of the ring-chain equilibrium and the contribution to the susceptibility of a chain of generic length. The theory predicts a nonmonotonic temperature dependence of the initial (zero field) magnetic susceptibility, arising from the competition between magnetically inert particle rings and magnetically active chains. Monte Carlo simulation results closely agree with the theoretical findings. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.110.148306
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This paper is on the problem of short-term hydro scheduling (STHS), particularly concerning a head-dependent hydro chain We propose a novel mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) approach, considering hydroelectric power generation as a nonlinear function of water discharge and of the head. As a new contribution to eat her studies, we model the on-off behavior of the hydro plants using integer variables, in order to avoid water discharges at forbidden areas Thus, an enhanced STHS is provided due to the more realistic modeling presented in this paper Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a test case based on one of the Portuguese cascaded hydro systems with a negligible computational time requirement.
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In this work we investigate the population dynamics of cooperative hunting extending the McCann and Yodzis model for a three-species food chain system with a predator, a prey, and a resource species. The new model considers that a given fraction sigma of predators cooperates in prey's hunting, while the rest of the population 1-sigma hunts without cooperation. We use the theory of symbolic dynamics to study the topological entropy and the parameter space ordering of the kneading sequences associated with one-dimensional maps that reproduce significant aspects of the dynamics of the species under several degrees of cooperative hunting. Our model also allows us to investigate the so-called deterministic extinction via chaotic crisis and transient chaos in the framework of cooperative hunting. The symbolic sequences allow us to identify a critical boundary in the parameter spaces (K, C-0) and (K, sigma) which separates two scenarios: (i) all-species coexistence and (ii) predator's extinction via chaotic crisis. We show that the crisis value of the carrying capacity K-c decreases at increasing sigma, indicating that predator's populations with high degree of cooperative hunting are more sensitive to the chaotic crises. We also show that the control method of Dhamala and Lai [Phys. Rev. E 59, 1646 (1999)] can sustain the chaotic behavior after the crisis for systems with cooperative hunting. We finally analyze and quantify the inner structure of the target regions obtained with this control method for wider parameter values beyond the crisis, showing a power law dependence of the extinction transients on such critical parameters.
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We investigate the structural and thermodynamic properties of a model of particles with 2 patches of type A and 10 patches of type B. Particles are placed on the sites of a face centered cubic lattice with the patches oriented along the nearest neighbor directions. The competition between the self- assembly of chains, rings, and networks on the phase diagram is investigated by carrying out a systematic investigation of this class of models, using an extension ofWertheim's theory for associating fluids and Monte Carlo numerical simulations. We varied the ratio r epsilon(AB)/epsilon(AA) of the interaction between patches A and B, epsilon(AB), and between A patches, epsilon(AA) (epsilon(BB) is set to theta) as well as the relative position of the A patches, i.e., the angle. between the (lattice) directions of the A patches. We found that both r and theta (60 degrees, 90 degrees, or 120 degrees) have a profound effect on the phase diagram. In the empty fluid regime (r < 1/2) the phase diagram is reentrant with a closed miscibility loop. The region around the lower critical point exhibits unusual structural and thermodynamic behavior determined by the presence of relatively short rings. The agreement between the results of theory and simulation is excellent for theta = 120 degrees but deteriorates as. decreases, revealing the need for new theoretical approaches to describe the structure and thermodynamics of systems dominated by small rings. (C) 2014 AIP Publishing LLC.
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Within a large set of renewable energies being explored to tackle energy sourcing problems, bioenergy can represent an attractive solution if effectively managed. The supply chain design supported by mathematical programming can be used as a decision support tool to the successful bioenergy production systems establishment. This strategic decision problem is addressed in this paper where we intent to study the design of the residual forestry biomass to bioelectricity production in the Portuguese context. In order to contribute to attain better solutions a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model is developed and applied in order to optimize the design and planning of the bioenergy supply chain. While minimizing the total supply chain cost the production energy facilities capacity and location are defined. The model also includes the optimal selection of biomass amounts and sources, the transportation modes selection, and links that must be established for biomass transportation and products delivers to markets. Results illustrate the positive contribution of the mathematical programming approach to achieve viable economic solutions. Sensitivity analysis on the most uncertain parameters was performed: biomass availability, transportation costs, fixed operating costs and investment costs. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Coevolution between two antagonistic species has been widely studied theoretically for both ecologically- and genetically-driven Red Queen dynamics. A typical outcome of these systems is an oscillatory behavior causing an endless series of one species adaptation and others counter-adaptation. More recently, a mathematical model combining a three-species food chain system with an adaptive dynamics approach revealed genetically driven chaotic Red Queen coevolution. In the present article, we analyze this mathematical model mainly focusing on the impact of species rates of evolution (mutation rates) in the dynamics. Firstly, we analytically proof the boundedness of the trajectories of the chaotic attractor. The complexity of the coupling between the dynamical variables is quantified using observability indices. By using symbolic dynamics theory, we quantify the complexity of genetically driven Red Queen chaos computing the topological entropy of existing one-dimensional iterated maps using Markov partitions. Co-dimensional two bifurcation diagrams are also built from the period ordering of the orbits of the maps. Then, we study the predictability of the Red Queen chaos, found in narrow regions of mutation rates. To extend the previous analyses, we also computed the likeliness of finding chaos in a given region of the parameter space varying other model parameters simultaneously. Such analyses allowed us to compute a mean predictability measure for the system in the explored region of the parameter space. We found that genetically driven Red Queen chaos, although being restricted to small regions of the analyzed parameter space, might be highly unpredictable.