A model to forecast financial failure, in non financial galician SMES

We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.

Interest rate exposure of Spanish banks: A nonparametric analysis

Interest rate risk is one of the major financial risks faced by banks due to the very nature of the banking business. The most common approach in the literature has been to estimate the impact of interest rate risk on banks using a simple linear regression model. However, the relationship between interest rate changes and bank stock returns does not need to be exclusively linear. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the interest rate exposure of the Spanish banking industry employing both parametric and non parametric estimation methods. Its main contribution is to use, for the first time in the context of banks’ interest rate risk, a nonparametric regression technique that avoids the assumption of a specific functional form. One the one hand, it is found that the Spanish banking sector exhibits a remarkable degree of interest rate exposure, although the impact of interest rate changes on bank stock returns has significantly declined following the introduction of the euro. Further, a pattern of positive exposure emerges during the post-euro period. On the other hand, the results corresponding to the nonparametric model support the expansion of the conventional linear model in an attempt to gain a greater insight into the actual degree of exposure.

Does the intake of LC-PUFAS during pregnancy affect the body composition of term neonates? Preliminary results

Background: The effect of the intake of polynsaturated long chain fatty acids (LCPUFAs) during pregnancy on fetal body composition has been assessed by studies using mostly neonatal anthropometry. Their results have been inconsistent, probably because neonatal anthropometry has several validity limitations. Air displacement plethismography (ADP) is a recently validated non-invasive method for assessing body composition in neonates. Objective: To determine the effect of the intake of LCPUFAs during pregnancy on the body composition of term neonates, measured by ADP. Methods: Cross-sectional study of a convenience sample of healthy full-term neonates and their mothers. The diet during pregnancy was assessed using a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire; Food Processor Plus® was used to convert food intake into nutritional values. Body composition was estimated by anthropometry and measured by ADP using Pea Pod™ Life Measurements Inc (fat mass - FM, fat-free mass and %FM) within the first 72h after birth. Univariate and multivariate analysis (linear regression model) were performed. Results: 54 mother-neonate pairs were included. Multivariate analysis adjusted to the maternal body mass index shows positive association between LCPUFAs intake and neonatal mid-arm circumference (= 0,610, p = 0,019) and negative association between n-6:n-3 ratio intake and neonatal %FM (= -2,744, p=0,066). Conclusion: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study on this subject using ADP and showing a negative association between LCPUFAs n-6:n-3 ratio intake in pregnancy and neonatal %FM. This preliminary finding requires confirmation increasing the study power with a greater sample and performing interventional studies.

Preditores da qualidade de vida na epilepsia

A epilepsia é uma das patologias neurológicas mais comuns em todo o mundo, com repercussões importantes na Qualidade de Vida (QDV) dos indivíduos. Deste modo, o objetivo do tratamento ultrapassa a remissão total das crises epiléticas, dado que também prioriza a QDV do indivíduo com epilepsia. A QDV tem vindo a ser associada a alguns fatores modificáveis, importantes para a sua promoção. Assim, pretende-se com o presente estudo identificar se a Adesão à Terapêutica, as Estratégias de Coping e a Espiritualidade são preditores da QDV de indivíduos com epilepsia. O SF-36 v1.0, a Medida de Adesão aos Tratamentos, o COPE-R e a Escala de Avaliação de Espiritualidade em Contextos de Saúde foram administrados a 94 indivíduos com diagnóstico de epilepsia entre quatro e 49 anos. A relação entre as variáveis foi analisada através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla. Os resultados revelam que a Adesão à Terapêutica, a Esperança/Otimismo predizem positivamente a QDV. Já as estratégias de Coping Desinvestimento Comportamental, Expressão de Sentimentos e Religião predizem-na negativamente. Estes resultados são importantes para os profissionais de saúde, na medida em que a identificação de preditores modificáveis da QDV sugere pistas para intervenções que promovam a QDV de indivíduos com epilepsia.

Empresas familiares vs. Empresas não familiares : evidência empírica em Portugal numa ótica de desempenho e do órgão de gestão

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira

Potential inundation of Lisbon downtown by a 1755-like tsunami

In this study, we present 10 m resolution tsunami flooding maps for Lisbon downtown and the Tagus estuary. To compute these maps we use the present bathymetry and topographic maps and a reasonable estimate for the maximum credible tsunami scenario. Tsunami modeling was made with a non-linear shallow water model using four levels of nested grids. The tsunami flood is discussed in terms of flow depth, run-up height and maximum inundation area. The results show that, even today, in spite of the significant morphologic changes in the city river front after the 1755 earthquake, a similar event would cause tsunami flow depths larger than one meter in a large area along the Tagus estuary and Lisbon downtown. Other areas along the estuary with a high population density would also be strongly affected. The impact of the tide on the extent of tsunami inundation is discussed, due to the large amplitude range of the tide in Lisbon, and compared with the historical descriptions of the 1755 event. The results presented here can be used to identify the potential tsunami inundation areas in Lisbon; this identification comprises a key element of the Portuguese tsunami emergency management system.

Alternative regimens for prostate cancer treatment using radiation therapy

Purpose/Objective: The purpose of this work was to determine biologically equivalent alternative regimens for the treatment of prostate cancer using External Beam Radiotherapy (EBRT) and Low Dose-Rate Brachytherapy (LDRBT) with 125I implants and to evaluate the sensitivity of these regimens to different sets of radiobiological parameters of the Linear-Quadratic (LQ) model.

Haptoglobin, acid phosphatase and demographic factors: obesity risk

The aim of this work is to study the risk of obesity posed by two genetic factors: haptoglobin phenotype and acid phosphatase phenotype, one enzymatic activity: acid phosphatase activity (ACP1), age and gender. Haptoglobin (Hp) is a protein of the immune system, and three phenotypes of Hp are found in humans: Hp1-1, Hp2-1, and Hp2-2. This protein is associated with a susceptibility to common pathological conditions, such as obesity. ACP1 is an intracellular enzyme The phenotypes of ACP1 (AA, AB, AC, BB, BC, CC) are also considered. We took a sample of 127 subjects with complete data from 714 registers. Since we intend to identify risk factors for obesity, an ordinal regression model is adjusted, using the Body Mass Index, BMI, to define weight categories. Haptoglobin phenotype, enzymatic activity of ACP1, acid phosphatase phenotype, age and gender are considered as regressor variables. We found three factors associated with an increased risk of obesity: phenotype Hp2-1 of haptoglobin (estimated odds ratio OR 11.54), phenotype AA of acid phosphatase (OR 33.788) and age (OR 1.39). The interaction between phenotype Hp2-1 and phenotype AC is associated with a decreased risk of obesity (OR 0.032); The interaction between phenotype AA and ACP1 activity is associated with a decreased risk of obesity (OR 0.954).

Energy-Aware Routing And Grooming For IP Transport Over WDM MLR Networks

In this work a mixed integer optimization linear programming (MILP) model was applied to mixed line rate (MLR) IP over WDM and IP over OTN over WDM (with and without OTN grooming) networks, with aim to reduce network energy consumption. Energy-aware and energy-aware & short-path routing techniques were used. Simulations were made based on a real network topology as well as on forecasts of traffic matrix based on statistical data from 2005 up to 2017. Energy aware routing optimization model on IPoWDM network, showed the lowest energy consumption along all years, and once compared with energy-aware & short-path routing, has led to an overall reduction in energy consumption up to 29%, expecting to save even more than shortest-path routing. © 2014 IEEE.

Supply chain optimization of residual forestry biomass for bioenergy production: the case study of Portugal

Within a large set of renewable energies being explored to tackle energy sourcing problems, bioenergy can represent an attractive solution if effectively managed. The supply chain design supported by mathematical programming can be used as a decision support tool to the successful bioenergy production systems establishment. This strategic decision problem is addressed in this paper where we intent to study the design of the residual forestry biomass to bioelectricity production in the Portuguese context. In order to contribute to attain better solutions a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model is developed and applied in order to optimize the design and planning of the bioenergy supply chain. While minimizing the total supply chain cost the production energy facilities capacity and location are defined. The model also includes the optimal selection of biomass amounts and sources, the transportation modes selection, and links that must be established for biomass transportation and products delivers to markets. Results illustrate the positive contribution of the mathematical programming approach to achieve viable economic solutions. Sensitivity analysis on the most uncertain parameters was performed: biomass availability, transportation costs, fixed operating costs and investment costs. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Deterministic approach for multiple-source tsunami hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

In this paper, we present a deterministic approach to tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal, one of the test sites of project ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe). Sines has one of the most important deep-water ports, which has oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid-bulk, coal, and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures face the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING, a Non-linear Shallow Water model wIth Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages: MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level), and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, the tsunami hazard is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, maximum inundation area and run-up. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at the Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario, and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite source of Horseshoe and Marques de Pombal faults as the worst-case scenario, with wave heights of over 10 m, which reach the coast approximately 22 min after the rupture. It dominates the aggregate scenario by about 60 % of the impact area at the test site, considering maximum wave height and maximum flow depth. The HSMPF scenario inundates a total area of 3.5 km2. © Author(s) 2015.