Accuracy of polls in Portugal

This study has a vast analysis, studying almost all the pre-electoral polls published or issued in Portugal in the month previous to each of the elections, since 1991 until the last one that took place in February 2005. The accuracy measures I used were adapted from the study carried out by Frederick Mosteller in the report to the Committee on Analysis of Pre-election Polls, regarding the USA elections of 1948.

Improving accuracy for OTD based 3G geolocation in real urban/suburban environments

This paper presents the recent research results about the development of a Observed Time Difference (OTD) based geolocation algorithm based on network trace data, for a real Universal Mobile Telecommunication System (UMTS) Network. The initial results have been published in [1], the current paper focus on increasing the sample convergence rate, and introducing a new filtering approach based on a moving average spatial filter, to increase accuracy. Field tests have been carried out for two radio environments (urban and suburban) in the Lisbon area, Portugal. The new enhancements produced a geopositioning success rate of 47% and 31%, and a median accuracy of 151 m and 337 m, for the urban and suburban environments, respectively. The implemented filter produced a 16% and 20% increase on accuracy, when compared with the geopositioned raw data. The obtained results are rather promising in accuracy and geolocation success rate. OTD positioning smoothed by moving average spatial filtering reveals a strong approach for positioning trace extracted events, vital for boosting Self-Organizing Networks (SON) over a 3G network.