Risk Aversion in a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Approach to Support Decision-Making for a Hydro Power Producer

In this paper, a mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to support decision-making for a hydro power producer, considering a head-dependent hydro chain. The aim is to maximize the profit of the hydro power producer from selling energy into the electric market. As a new contribution to earlier studies, a risk aversion criterion is taken into account, as well as head-dependency. The volatility of the expected profit is limited through the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). The proposed approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems.

Constructing good deals in discrete time arbitrage-free dynamic pricing models

Recent literature has proved that many classical pricing models (Black and Scholes, Heston, etc.) and risk measures (V aR, CV aR, etc.) may lead to “pathological meaningless situations”, since traders can build sequences of portfolios whose risk leveltends to −infinity and whose expected return tends to +infinity, i.e., (risk = −infinity, return = +infinity). Such a sequence of strategies may be called “good deal”. This paper focuses on the risk measures V aR and CV aR and analyzes this caveat in a discrete time complete pricing model. Under quite general conditions the explicit expression of a good deal is given, and its sensitivity with respect to some possible measurement errors is provided too. We point out that a critical property is the absence of short sales. In such a case we first construct a “shadow riskless asset” (SRA) without short sales and then the good deal is given by borrowing more and more money so as to invest in the SRA. It is also shown that the SRA is interested by itself, even if there are short selling restrictions.

Strong and weak Allee effects and chaotic dynamics in Richards' growths

In this paper we define and investigate generalized Richards' growth models with strong and weak Allee effects and no Allee effect. We prove the transition from strong Allee effect to no Allee effect, passing through the weak Allee effect, depending on the implicit conditions, which involve the several parameters considered in the models. New classes of functions describing the existence or not of Allee effect are introduced, a new dynamical approach to Richards' populational growth equation is established. These families of generalized Richards' functions are proportional to the right hand side of the generalized Richards' growth models proposed. Subclasses of strong and weak Allee functions and functions with no Allee effect are characterized. The study of their bifurcation structure is presented in detail, this analysis is done based on the configurations of bifurcation curves and symbolic dynamics techniques. Generically, the dynamics of these functions are classified in the following types: extinction, semi-stability, stability, period doubling, chaos, chaotic semistability and essential extinction. We obtain conditions on the parameter plane for the existence of a weak Allee effect region related to the appearance of cusp points. To support our results, we present fold and flip bifurcations curves and numerical simulations of several bifurcation diagrams.

Equilibrium distributions of discrete non-autonomous graphs

We introduce the notions of equilibrium distribution and time of convergence in discrete non-autonomous graphs. Under some conditions we give an estimate to the convergence time to the equilibrium distribution using the second largest eigenvalue of some matrices associated with the system.

The effects of clinical support surfaces on pressure as a risk factor in the development of pressure ulcers, from a radiographical perspective: a narrative literature review

Purpose: Pressure ulcers are a high cost, high volume issue for health and medical care providers, having a detrimental effect on patients and relatives. Pressure ulcer prevention is widely covered in the literature, but little has been published regarding the risk to patients in the radiographical setting. This review of the current literature is to identify findings relevant to radiographical context. Methods: Literature searching was performed using Science Direct and Medline databases. The search was limited to articles published in the last ten years to remain current and excluded studies containing participants less than 17 years of age. In total 14 studies were acquired; three were excluded as they were not relevant. The remaining 11 studies were compared and reviewed. Discussion: Eight of the studies used ‘healthy’ participants and three used symptomatic participants. Nine studies explored interface pressure with a range of pressure mat technologies, two studies measured shear (MRI finite element modelling, and a non-invasive instrument), and one looked at blood flow and haemoglobin oxygenation. A range of surfaces were considered from trauma, nursing and surgical backgrounds for their ability to reduce pressure including standard mattresses, high specification mattresses, rigid and soft layer spine boards, various overlays (gel, air filled, foam). Conclusion: The current literature is not appropriate for the radiographic patient and cannot be extrapolated to a radiologic context. Sufficient evidence is presented in this review to support the need for further work specific to radiography in order to minimise the development of PU in at risk patients.

Semi-destructive in situ tests as support to the assessment of a conservation process

This paper refers to the assessment on site by semi-destructive testing (SDT) methods of the consolidation efficiency of a conservation process developed by Henriques (2011) for structural and non-structural pine wood elements in service. This study was applied on scots pine wood (Pinus sylvestris L.) degraded by fungi after treatment with a biocidal product followed by consolidation with a polymeric product. This solution avoids substitutions of wood moderately degraded by fungi, improving its physical and mechanical characteristics. The consolidation efficiency was assessed on site by methods of drill resistance and penetration resistance. The SDT methods used showed good sensitivity to the conservation process and could evaluate their effectiveness. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrogenating activity of Pt/zeolite catalysts focusing acid support and metal dispersion influence

Toluene hydrogenation was studied over catalysts based on Pt supported on large pore zeolites (HUSY and HBEA) with different metal/acid ratios. Acidity of zeolites was assessed by pyridine adsorption followed by FTIR showing only small changes before and after Pt introduction. Metal dispersion was determined by H2–O2 titration and verified by a linear correlation with the intensity of Pt0–CO band obtained by in situ FTIR. It was also observed that the electronic properties of Pt0 clusters were similar for the different catalysts. Catalytic tests showed rapid catalyst deactivation with an activity loss of 80–95% after 60 min of reaction. The turnover frequency of fresh catalysts depended both on metal dispersion and the support. For the same support, it changed by a 1.7-fold (HBEA) and 4.0-fold (HUSY) showing that toluene hydrogenation is structure-sensitive, i.e. hydrogenating activity is not a unique function of accessible metal. This was proposed to be due to the contribution to the overall activity of the hydrogenation of adsorbed toluene on acid sites via hydrogen spillover. Taking into account the role of zeolite acidity, the catalysts series were compared by the activity per total adsorbing sites which was observed to increase steadily with nPt/(nPt + nA). An increase of the accessible Pt atoms leads to an increase on the amount of spilled over hydrogen available in acid sites therefore increasing the overall activity. Pt/HBEA catalysts were found to be more active per total adsorbing site than Pt/HUSY which is proposed to be due to an augmentation in the efficiency of spilled over hydrogen diffusion related to the proximity between Pt clusters and acid sites. The intervention of Lewis acid sites in a greater extent than that measured by pyridine adsorption may also contribute to this higher activity of Pt/HBEA catalysts. These results reinforce the importance of model reactions as a closer perspective to the relevant catalyst properties in reaction conditions.

Spectral invariants of periodic nonautonomous discrete dynamical systems

For an interval map, the poles of the Artin-Mazur zeta function provide topological invariants which are closely connected to topological entropy. It is known that for a time-periodic nonautonomous dynamical system F with period p, the p-th power [zeta(F) (z)](p) of its zeta function is meromorphic in the unit disk. Unlike in the autonomous case, where the zeta function zeta(f)(z) only has poles in the unit disk, in the p-periodic nonautonomous case [zeta(F)(z)](p) may have zeros. In this paper we introduce the concept of spectral invariants of p-periodic nonautonomous discrete dynamical systems and study the role played by the zeros of [zeta(F)(z)](p) in this context. As we will see, these zeros play an important role in the spectral classification of these systems.

Exploiting the bin-class histograms for feature selection on discrete data

In machine learning and pattern recognition tasks, the use of feature discretization techniques may have several advantages. The discretized features may hold enough information for the learning task at hand, while ignoring minor fluctuations that are irrelevant or harmful for that task. The discretized features have more compact representations that may yield both better accuracy and lower training time, as compared to the use of the original features. However, in many cases, mainly with medium and high-dimensional data, the large number of features usually implies that there is some redundancy among them. Thus, we may further apply feature selection (FS) techniques on the discrete data, keeping the most relevant features, while discarding the irrelevant and redundant ones. In this paper, we propose relevance and redundancy criteria for supervised feature selection techniques on discrete data. These criteria are applied to the bin-class histograms of the discrete features. The experimental results, on public benchmark data, show that the proposed criteria can achieve better accuracy than widely used relevance and redundancy criteria, such as mutual information and the Fisher ratio.