Risk Aversion in a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Approach to Support Decision-Making for a Hydro Power Producer

In this paper, a mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to support decision-making for a hydro power producer, considering a head-dependent hydro chain. The aim is to maximize the profit of the hydro power producer from selling energy into the electric market. As a new contribution to earlier studies, a risk aversion criterion is taken into account, as well as head-dependency. The volatility of the expected profit is limited through the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). The proposed approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems.

Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

Evolução dos sistema de telegestão da Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres, S.A.

O sistema de telegestão é uma ferramenta que permite a gestão, em tempo real, de todo o sistema de abastecimento da Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres, S.A. (EPAL). Esta gestão pode ser conseguida desde a captação da água até à sua entrega ao cliente final, através dos meios de monitorização necessários às operações de comando que permitem controlar e manobrar à distância os acessórios do sistema (estações elevatórias, reservatórios, válvulas,…). A presente dissertação visa a divulgação e compilação de elementos fundamentais para a otimização das potencialidades que a telegestão oferece, abordando assim, dada a sua especificidade, um tema pouco divulgado mas de extrema importância a quem trabalha ou pretende trabalhar numa entidade gestora similar. Assim, a dissertação é constituída por seis capítulos que compreendem a caracterização do sistema de adução, transporte e distribuição da EPAL, a abordagem genérica das ferramentas de suporte à exploração do sistema, uma resenha histórica do sistema de telegestão na EPAL, bem como informações referentes ao atual sistema de telegestão, nomeadamente a sua arquitetura, principais funcionalidades, tais como o controlo de órgãos de manobra à distância e análise de parâmetros de qualidade em tempo real. Finalmente, apresentam-se algumas conclusões e recomendações para trabalhos futuros. Pretende-se assim que o presente documento contribua para uma aglutinação de informações relativas aos sistemas de telegestão para abastecimento de água, respetivas vantagens aliadas às suas funcionalidades, bem como a identificação de fragilidades do sistema que poderão ser aperfeiçoadas ou mesmo eliminadas.

Partial utility-driven scheduling for flexible SLA and pricing arbitration in clouds

Cloud SLAs compensate customers with credits when average availability drops below certain levels. This is too inflexible because consumers lose non-measurable amounts of performance being only compensated later, in next charging cycles. We propose to schedule virtual machines (VMs), driven by range-based non-linear reductions of utility, different for classes of users and across different ranges of resource allocations: partial utility. This customer-defined metric, allows providers transferring resources between VMs in meaningful and economically efficient ways. We define a comprehensive cost model incorporating partial utility given by clients to a certain level of degradation, when VMs are allocated in overcommitted environments (Public, Private, Community Clouds). CloudSim was extended to support our scheduling model. Several simulation scenarios with synthetic and real workloads are presented, using datacenters with different dimensions regarding the number of servers and computational capacity. We show the partial utility-driven driven scheduling allows more VMs to be allocated. It brings benefits to providers, regarding revenue and resource utilization, allowing for more revenue per resource allocated and scaling well with the size of datacenters when comparing with an utility-oblivious redistribution of resources. Regarding clients, their workloads’ execution time is also improved, by incorporating an SLA-based redistribution of their VM’s computational power.

Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case Study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

Com Hélder Costa: o sábio prático d’A Barraca: relatório de estágio

Relatório de Estágio submetido à Escola Superior de Teatro e Cinema para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Teatro - especialização em Artes Performativas (Interpretação).