The Portuguese transition to democracy

On 25 April 1974 the Armed Forces Movement (MFA – Movimento das Forças Armadas) rose against the dictatorial regime that had governed Portugal for 48 years. This event was the beginning of a turbulent transition process that was to culminate in the approval of a new constitution in April 1976 and in the instauration of a Western style pluralist democracy. There are many political scientists and historians who note the original and unexpected nature of this transition; however, there are very many different interpretations with respect to the roles played by each of the actors in the process: the armed forces, the parties and political movements and the social forces/movements. The aim of this paper is to clarify this matter through an examination of the principal events of the revolution.

A gestão do risco associado à negociação de energia eléctrica através de contratos bilaterais e mercado spot

Num mercado de electricidade competitivo onde existe um ambiente de incerteza, as empresas de geração adoptam estratégias que visam a maximização do lucro, e a minimização do risco. Neste contexto, é de extrema importância para desenvolver uma estratégia adequada de gestão de risco ter em conta as diferentes opções de negociação de energia num mercado liberalizado, de forma a suportar a tomada de decisões na gestão de risco. O presente trabalho apresenta um modelo que avalia a melhor estratégia de um produtor de energia eléctrica que comercializa num mercado competitivo, onde existem dois mercados possíveis para a transacção de energia: o mercado organizado (bolsa) e o mercado de contratos bilaterais. O produtor tenta maximizar seus lucros e minimizar os riscos correspondentes, seleccionando o melhor equilíbrio entre os dois mercados possíveis (bolsa e bilateral). O mercado de contratos bilaterais visa gerir adequadamente os riscos inerentes à operação de mercados no curto prazo (mercado organizado) e dar o vendedor / comprador uma capacidade real de escolher o fornecedor com que quer negociar. O modelo apresentado neste trabalho faz uma caracterização explícita do risco no que diz respeito ao agente de mercado na questão da sua atitude face ao risco, medido pelo Value at Risk (VaR), descrito neste trabalho por Lucro-em-Risco (PAR). O preço e os factores de risco de volume são caracterizados por um valor médio e um desvio padrão, e são modelizados por distribuições normais. Os resultados numéricos são obtidos utilizando a simulação de Monte Carlo implementado em Matlab, e que é aplicado a um produtor que mantém uma carteira diversificada de tecnologias de geração, para um horizonte temporal de um ano. Esta dissertação está organizada da seguinte forma: o capítulo 1, 2 e 3 descrevem o estado-da-arte relacionado com a gestão de risco na comercialização de energia eléctrica. O capítulo 4 descreve o modelo desenvolvido e implementado, onde é também apresentado um estudo de caso com uma aplicação do modelo para avaliar o risco de negociação de um produtor. No capítulo 5 são apresentadas as principais conclusões.

Machine learning Vasicek model calibration with Gaussian processes

In this article, we calibrate the Vasicek interest rate model under the risk neutral measure by learning the model parameters using Gaussian processes for machine learning regression. The calibration is done by maximizing the likelihood of zero coupon bond log prices, using mean and covariance functions computed analytically, as well as likelihood derivatives with respect to the parameters. The maximization method used is the conjugate gradients. The only prices needed for calibration are zero coupon bond prices and the parameters are directly obtained in the arbitrage free risk neutral measure.

Deep crustal structure across a young passive margin from wide-angle and reflection seismic data (The Sardinia Experiment) - II. Sardinia's margin

Geophysical data acquired on the conjugate margins system of the Gulf of Lion and West Sardinia (GLWS) is unique in its ability to address fundamental questions about rifting (i.e. crustal thinning, the nature of the continent-ocean transition zone, the style of rifting and subsequent evolution, and the connection between deep and surface processes). While the Gulf of Lion (GoL) was the site of several deep seismic experiments, which occurred before the SARDINIA Experiment (ESP and ECORS Experiments in 1981 and 1988 respectively), the crustal structure of the West Sardinia margin remains unknown. This paper describes the first modeling of wide-angle and near-vertical reflection multi-channel seismic (MCS) profiles crossing the West Sardinia margin, in the Mediterranean Sea. The profiles were acquired, together with the exact conjugate of the profiles crossing the GoL, during the SARDINIA experiment in December 2006 with the French R/V L'Atalante. Forward wide-angle modeling of both data sets (wide-angle and multi-channel seismic) confirms that the margin is characterized by three distinct domains following the onshore unthinned, 26 km-thick continental crust : Domain V, where the crust thins from 26 to 6 km in a width of about 75 km; Domain IV where the basement is characterized by high velocity gradients and lower crustal seismic velocities from 6.8 to 7.25 km/s, which are atypical for either crustal or upper mantle material, and Domain III composed of "atypical" oceanic crust.The structure observed on the West Sardinian margin presents a distribution of seismic velocities that is symmetrical with those observed on the Gulf of Lion's side, except for the dimension of each domain and with respect to the initiation of seafloor spreading. This result does not support the hypothesis of simple shear mechanism operating along a lithospheric detachment during the formation of the Liguro-Provencal basin.

On the requirements of interpolating polynomials for path motion constraints

In the framework of multibody dynamics, the path motion constraint enforces that a body follows a predefined curve being its rotations with respect to the curve moving frame also prescribed. The kinematic constraint formulation requires the evaluation of the fourth derivative of the curve with respect to its arc length. Regardless of the fact that higher order polynomials lead to unwanted curve oscillations, at least a fifth order polynomials is required to formulate this constraint. From the point of view of geometric control lower order polynomials are preferred. This work shows that for multibody dynamic formulations with dependent coordinates the use of cubic polynomials is possible, being the dynamic response similar to that obtained with higher order polynomials. The stabilization of the equations of motion, always required to control the constraint violations during long analysis periods due to the inherent numerical errors of the integration process, is enough to correct the error introduced by using a lower order polynomial interpolation and thus forfeiting the analytical requirement for higher order polynomials.

Railway vehicle modelling for the vehicle-track interaction compatibility analysis

Railway vehicle homologation, with respect to running dynamics, is addressed via dedicated norms. The results required, such as, accelerations and/or wheel-rail contact forces, obtained from experimental tests or simulations, must be available. Multibody dynamics allows the modelling of railway vehicles and their representation in real operations conditions, being the realism of the multibody models greatly influenced by the modelling assumptions. In this paper, two alternative multibody models of the Light Rail Vehicle 2000 (LRV) are constructed and simulated in a realistic railway track scenarios. The vehicle-track interaction compatibility analysis consists of two stages: the use of the simplified method described in the norm "UIC 518-Testing and Approval of Railway Vehicles from the Point of View of their Dynamic Behaviour-Safety-Track Fatigue-Running Behaviour" for decision making; and, visualization inspection of the vehicle motion with respect to the track via dedicated tools for understanding the mechanisms involved.