Risco e incerteza no pensamento biomédico: notas teóricas sobre o advento da quantificação e da prova experimental na medicina moderna

A biomedicina é um domínio do saber no qual a proliferação do conceito de risco se tem evidenciado de forma expressiva, o que revela uma preocupação em proceder ao controlo sistemático dos problemas através de um modelo de racionalização instrumental. Tal procedimento é elucidativo do investimento que é feito na interpretação das incertezas como riscos. Consequentemente, a dimensão estatística que lhe está associada é cada vez mais um dos principais traços do seu perfil científico. Biomedicine is a field where the concept of risk has shown an impressive increase in its importance. This fact demonstrates a concern with a systematic problem control through an instrumental rationalizing model, expressing eloquently the investment being made in interpreting uncertainty as risk and the consequent statistical dimension as an ever-more quintessential feature of its scientific profile.

Desvio de posicionamento em radioterapia para patologias de cabeça e pescoço e próstata: revisão de literatura

Introdução – Numa era em que os tratamentos de Radioterapia Externa (RTE) exigem cada vez mais precisão, a utilização de imagem médica permitirá medir, quantificar e avaliar o impacto do erro provocado pela execução do tratamento ou pelos movimentos dos órgãos. Objetivo – Analisar os dados existentes na literatura acerca de desvios de posicionamento (DP) em patologias de cabeça e pescoço (CP) e próstata, medidos com Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT) ou Electronic Portal Image Device (EPID). Metodologia – Para esta revisão da literatura foram pesquisados artigos recorrendo às bases de dados MEDLINE/PubMed e b-on. Foram incluídos artigos que reportassem DP em patologias CP e próstata medidos através de CBCT e EPID. Seguidamente foram aplicados critérios de validação, que permitiram a seleção dos estudos. Resultados – Após a análise de 35 artigos foram incluídos 13 estudos e validados 9 estudos. Para tumores CP, a média (μ) dos DP encontra-se entre 0,0 e 1,2mm, com um desvio padrão (σ) máximo de 1,3mm. Para patologias de próstata observa-se μDP compreendido entre 0,0 e 7,1mm, com σ máximo de 7,5mm. Discussão/Conclusão – Os DP em patologias CP são atribuídos, maioritariamente, aos efeitos secundários da RTE, como mucosite e dor, que afetam a deglutição e conduzem ao emagrecimento, contribuindo para a instabilidade da posição do doente durante o tratamento, aumentando as incertezas de posicionamento. Os movimentos da próstata devem-se principalmente às variações de preenchimento vesical, retal e gás intestinal. O desconhecimento dos DP afeta negativamente a precisão da RTE. É importante detetá-los e quantificá-los para calcular margens adequadas e a magnitude dos erros, aumentando a precisão da administração de RTE, incluindo o aumento da segurança do doente. - ABSTRACT - Background and Purpose – In an era where precision is an increasing necessity in external radiotherapy (RT), modern medical imaging techniques provide means for measuring, quantifying and evaluating the impact of treatment execution and movement error. The aim of this paper is to review the current literature on the quantification of setup deviations (SD) in patients with head and neck (H&N) or prostate tumors, using Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT) or Electronic Portal Image Device (EPID). Methods – According to the study protocol, MEDLINE/PubMed and b-on databases were searched for trials, which were analyzed using selection criteria based on the quality of the articles. Results – After assessment of 35 papers, 13 studies were included in this analysis and nine were authenticated (6 for prostate and 3 for H&N tumors). The SD in the treatment of H&N cancer patients is in the interval of 0.1 to 1.2mm, whereas in prostate cancer this interval is 0.0 to 7.1mm. Discussion – The reproducibility of patient positioning is the biggest barrier for higher precision in RT, which is affected by geometrical uncertainty, positioning errors and inter or intra-fraction organ movement. There are random and systematic errors associated to patient positioning, introduced since the treatment planning phase or through physiological organ movement. Conclusion – The H&N SD are mostly assigned to the Radiotherapy adverse effects, like mucositis and pain, which affect swallowing and decrease secretions, contributing for the instability of patient positioning during RT treatment and increasing positioning uncertainties. Prostate motion is mainly related to the variation in bladder and rectal filling. Ignoring SD affects negatively the accuracy of RT. Therefore, detection and quantification of SD is crucial in order to calculate appropriate margins, the magnitude of error and to improve accuracy in RTE and patient safety.

A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty

In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Damage detection and quantification using transmissibility

Structures experience various types of loads along their lifetime, which can be either static or dynamic and may be associated to phenomena of corrosion and chemical attack, among others. As a consequence, different types of structural damage can be produced; the deteriorated structure may have its capacity affected, leading to excessive vibration problems or even possible failure. It is very important to develop methods that are able to simultaneously detect the existence of damage and to quantify its extent. In this paper the authors propose a method to detect and quantify structural damage, using response transmissibilities measured along the structure. Some numerical simulations are presented and a comparison is made with results using frequency response functions. Experimental tests are also undertaken to validate the proposed technique. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validação de um método de cromatografia líquida de alta resolução (HPLC) para doseamento da vitamina D em géneros alimentícios: aplicação do método em diferentes matrizes alimentares

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química e Biológica

Optimal offering strategies for wind power producers considering uncertainty and risk

This paper provides a two-stage stochastic programming approach for the development of optimal offering strategies for wind power producers. Uncertainty is related to electricity market prices and wind power production. A hybrid intelligent approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is used in this paper to generate plausible scenarios. Also, risk aversion is explicitly modeled using the conditional value-at-risk methodology. Results from a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal, are provided and analyzed. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.