Boulder deposition during major tsunami events

A remarkable accumulation of marine boulders located above the present spring tide level has occurred in two coastal lowlands of the Algarve (Portugal). The size-interval of the particles studied here is seldom reported in the literature in association with extreme events of coastal inundation, thus making this study of relevance to many other coasts worldwide. The spreads of boulders extend several hundred meters inland and well beyond the present landward limit of storm activity. The marine origin of the boulders is demonstrated by well-developed macro-bioerosion sculpturing and in situ skeletal remains of endolithic shallow marine bivalves. The good state preservation of the fossils within the boulders indicates that abrasion duringtransport and redeposition was not significant. We envisage boulder deposition as having taken place during the Lisbon tsunami of ad 1755 through the simultaneous landward entrainment of coarse particles from nearshore followed by rapid shoreward suspended-dominated transport and non-graded redeposition that excluded significant sorting by weight or boulder dimensions. We use numerical hydrodynamic modeling of tsunami (and storm) waves to test the observational data on boulder dimensions (density, size, distribution) on the most likely processes of sediment deposition. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of the study of boulder deposits in tsunami reconstruction. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal

A new data set of daily gridded observations of precipitation, computed from over 400 stations in Portugal, is used to assess the performance of 12 regional climate models at 25 km resolution, from the ENSEMBLES set, all forced by ERA-40 boundary conditions, for the 1961-2000 period. Standard point error statistics, calculated from grid point and basin aggregated data, and precipitation related climate indices are used to analyze the performance of the different models in representing the main spatial and temporal features of the regional climate, and its extreme events. As a whole, the ENSEMBLES models are found to achieve a good representation of those features, with good spatial correlations with observations. There is a small but relevant negative bias in precipitation, especially in the driest months, leading to systematic errors in related climate indices. The underprediction of precipitation occurs in most percentiles, although this deficiency is partially corrected at the basin level. Interestingly, some of the conclusions concerning the performance of the models are different of what has been found for the contiguous territory of Spain; in particular, ENSEMBLES models appear too dry over Portugal and too wet over Spain. Finally, models behave quite differently in the simulation of some important aspects of local climate, from the mean climatology to high precipitation regimes in localized mountain ranges and in the subsequent drier regions.

Educating for earthquake science and risk in a tectonically slowly deforming region

Over the past decade, scientists have been called to participate more actively in public education and outreach (E&O). This is particularly true in fields of significant societal impact, such as earthquake science. Local earthquake risk culture plays a role in the way that the public engages in educational efforts. In this article, we describe an adapted E&O program for earthquake science and risk. The program is tailored for a region of slow tectonic deformation, where large earthquakes are extreme events that occur with long return periods. The adapted program has two main goals: (1) to increase the awareness and preparedness of the population to earthquake and related risks (tsunami, liquefaction, fires, etc.), and (2) to increase the quality of earthquake science education, so as to attract talented students to geosciences. Our integrated program relies on activities tuned for different population groups who have different interests and abilities, namely young children, teenagers, young adults, and professionals.

Moisture recycling in the Iberian Peninsula from a regional climate simulation: spatiotemporal analysis and impact on the precipitation regime

The contribution of the evapotranspiration from a certain region to the precipitation over the same area is referred to as water recycling. In this paper, we explore the spatiotemporal links between the recycling mechanism and the Iberian rainfall regime. We use a 9 km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting simulation of 18 years (1990-2007) to compute local and regional recycling ratios over Iberia, at the monthly scale, through both an analytical and a numerical recycling model. In contrast to coastal areas, the interior of Iberia experiences a relative maximum of precipitation in spring, suggesting a prominent role of land-atmosphere interactions on the inland precipitation regime during this period of the year. Local recycling ratios are the highest in spring and early summer, coinciding with those areas where this spring peak of rainfall represents the absolute maximum in the annual cycle. This confirms that recycling processes are crucial to explain the Iberian spring precipitation, particularly over the eastern and northeastern sectors. Average monthly recycling values range from 0.04 in December to 0.14 in June according to the numerical model and from 0.03 in December to 0.07 in May according to the analytical procedure. Our analysis shows that the highest values of recycling are limited by the coexistence of two necessary mechanisms: (1) the availability of sufficient soil moisture and (2) the occurrence of appropriate synoptic configurations favoring the development of convective regimes. The analyzed surplus of rainfall in spring has a critical impact on agriculture over large semiarid regions of the interior of Iberia.

Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

Structural and optical studies of Au doped titanium oxide films

Thin films of TiO2 were doped with Au by ion implantation and in situ during the deposition. The films were grown by reactive magnetron sputtering and deposited in silicon and glass substrates at a temperature around 150 degrees C. The undoped films were implanted with Au fiuences in the range of 5 x 10(15) Au/cm(2)-1 x 10(17) Au/cm(2) with a energy of 150 keV. At a fluence of 5 x 10(16) Au/cm(2) the formation of Au nanoclusters in the films is observed during the implantation at room temperature. The clustering process starts to occur during the implantation where XRD estimates the presence of 3-5 nm precipitates. After annealing in a reducing atmosphere, the small precipitates coalesce into larger ones following an Ostwald ripening mechanism. In situ XRD studies reveal that Au atoms start to coalesce at 350 degrees C, reaching the precipitates dimensions larger than 40 nm at 600 degrees C. Annealing above 700 degrees C promotes drastic changes in the Au profile of in situ doped films with the formation of two Au rich regions at the interface and surface respectively. The optical properties reveal the presence of a broad band centered at 550 nm related to the plasmon resonance of gold particles visible in AFM maps. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Branching points in the low-temperature dipolar hard sphere fluid

In this contribution, we investigate the low-temperature, low-density behaviour of dipolar hard-sphere (DHS) particles, i.e., hard spheres with dipoles embedded in their centre. We aim at describing the DHS fluid in terms of a network of chains and rings (the fundamental clusters) held together by branching points (defects) of different nature. We first introduce a systematic way of classifying inter-cluster connections according to their topology, and then employ this classification to analyse the geometric and thermodynamic properties of each class of defects, as extracted from state-of-the-art equilibrium Monte Carlo simulations. By computing the average density and energetic cost of each defect class, we find that the relevant contribution to inter-cluster interactions is indeed provided by (rare) three-way junctions and by four-way junctions arising from parallel or anti-parallel locally linear aggregates. All other (numerous) defects are either intra-cluster or associated to low cluster-cluster interaction energies, suggesting that these defects do not play a significant part in the thermodynamic description of the self-assembly processes of dipolar hard spheres. (C) 2013 AIP Publishing LLC.