The problem of estimating the volatility of zero coupon bond interest rate

Financial literature and financial industry use often zero coupon yield curves as input for testing hypotheses, pricing assets or managing risk. They assume this provided data as accurate. We analyse implications of the methodology and of the sample selection criteria used to estimate the zero coupon bond yield term structure on the resulting volatility of spot rates with different maturities. We obtain the volatility term structure using historical volatilities and Egarch volatilities. As input for these volatilities we consider our own spot rates estimation from GovPX bond data and three popular interest rates data sets: from the Federal Reserve Board, from the US Department of the Treasury (H15), and from Bloomberg. We find strong evidence that the resulting zero coupon bond yield volatility estimates as well as the correlation coefficients among spot and forward rates depend significantly on the data set. We observe relevant differences in economic terms when volatilities are used to price derivatives.

Fast growing fungi: a problem to be solved to achieve characterization of occupational exposure to fungi in cork industry

Chrysonilia sitophila is a common mould in cork industry and has been identified as a cause of IgE sensitization and occupational asthma. This fungal species have a fast growth rate that may inhibit others species’ growth causing underestimated data from characterization of occupational fungal exposure. Aiming to ascertain occupational exposure to fungi in cork industry, were analyzed papers from 2000 about the best air sampling method, to obtain quantification and identification of all airborne culturable fungi, besides the ones that have fast-growing rates. Impaction method don’t allows the collection of a representative air volume, because even with some media that restricts the growth of the colonies, in environments with higher fungal load, such as cork industry, the counting of the colonies is very difficult. Otherwise, impinger method permits the collection of a representative air volume, since we can make dilution of the collected volume. Besides culture methods that allows fungal identification trough macro- and micro-morphology, growth features, thermotolerance and ecological data, we can apply molecular biology with the impinger method, to detect the presence of non-viable particles and potential mycotoxin producers’ strains, and also to detect mycotoxins presence with ELISA or HPLC. Selection of the best air sampling method in each setting is crucial to achieve characterization of occupational exposure to fungi. Information about the prevalent fungal species in each setting and also the eventual fungal load it’s needed for a criterious selection.

Feature selection for clustering categorical data with an embedded modelling approach

Research on the problem of feature selection for clustering continues to develop. This is a challenging task, mainly due to the absence of class labels to guide the search for relevant features. Categorical feature selection for clustering has rarely been addressed in the literature, with most of the proposed approaches having focused on numerical data. In this work, we propose an approach to simultaneously cluster categorical data and select a subset of relevant features. Our approach is based on a modification of a finite mixture model (of multinomial distributions), where a set of latent variables indicate the relevance of each feature. To estimate the model parameters, we implement a variant of the expectation-maximization algorithm that simultaneously selects the subset of relevant features, using a minimum message length criterion. The proposed approach compares favourably with two baseline methods: a filter based on an entropy measure and a wrapper based on mutual information. The results obtained on synthetic data illustrate the ability of the proposed expectation-maximization method to recover ground truth. An application to real data, referred to official statistics, shows its usefulness.

Efficient feature selection filters for high-dimensional data

Feature selection is a central problem in machine learning and pattern recognition. On large datasets (in terms of dimension and/or number of instances), using search-based or wrapper techniques can be cornputationally prohibitive. Moreover, many filter methods based on relevance/redundancy assessment also take a prohibitively long time on high-dimensional. datasets. In this paper, we propose efficient unsupervised and supervised feature selection/ranking filters for high-dimensional datasets. These methods use low-complexity relevance and redundancy criteria, applicable to supervised, semi-supervised, and unsupervised learning, being able to act as pre-processors for computationally intensive methods to focus their attention on smaller subsets of promising features. The experimental results, with up to 10(5) features, show the time efficiency of our methods, with lower generalization error than state-of-the-art techniques, while being dramatically simpler and faster.

Materials selection for a set of multiple parts considering manufacturing costs and weight reduction with structural isoperformance using direct multisearch optimization

Materials selection is a matter of great importance to engineering design and software tools are valuable to inform decisions in the early stages of product development. However, when a set of alternative materials is available for the different parts a product is made of, the question of what optimal material mix to choose for a group of parts is not trivial. The engineer/designer therefore goes about this in a part-by-part procedure. Optimizing each part per se can lead to a global sub-optimal solution from the product point of view. An optimization procedure to deal with products with multiple parts, each with discrete design variables, and able to determine the optimal solution assuming different objectives is therefore needed. To solve this multiobjective optimization problem, a new routine based on Direct MultiSearch (DMS) algorithm is created. Results from the Pareto front can help the designer to align his/hers materials selection for a complete set of materials with product attribute objectives, depending on the relative importance of each objective.

Statistical classification of road pavements using near field vehicle rolling noise measurements

Low noise surfaces have been increasingly considered as a viable and cost-effective alternative to acoustical barriers. However, road planners and administrators frequently lack information on the correlation between the type of road surface and the resulting noise emission profile. To address this problem, a method to identify and classify different types of road pavements was developed, whereby near field road noise is analyzed using statistical learning methods. The vehicle rolling sound signal near the tires and close to the road surface was acquired by two microphones in a special arrangement which implements the Close-Proximity method. A set of features, characterizing the properties of the road pavement, was extracted from the corresponding sound profiles. A feature selection method was used to automatically select those that are most relevant in predicting the type of pavement, while reducing the computational cost. A set of different types of road pavement segments were tested and the performance of the classifier was evaluated. Results of pavement classification performed during a road journey are presented on a map, together with geographical data. This procedure leads to a considerable improvement in the quality of road pavement noise data, thereby increasing the accuracy of road traffic noise prediction models.

On the Problem of Balancing the DC Capacitor Voltage Divider in Back-to-Back Multilevel Converters

This paper presents a new generalized solution for DC bus capacitors voltage balancing in back-to-back m level diode-clamped multilevel converters connecting AC networks. The solution is based on the DC bus average power flow and exploits the switching configuration redundancies. The proposed balancing solution is particularized for the back-to-back multilevel structure with m=5 levels. This back-to-back converter is studied working with bidirectional power flow, connecting an induction machine to the power grid.

Low Complexity Intra Mode Selection for Efficient Distributed Video Coding

Motion compensated frame interpolation (MCFI) is one of the most efficient solutions to generate side information (SI) in the context of distributed video coding. However, it creates SI with rather significant motion compensated errors for some frame regions while rather small for some other regions depending on the video content. In this paper, a low complexity Infra mode selection algorithm is proposed to select the most 'critical' blocks in the WZ frame and help the decoder with some reliable data for those blocks. For each block, the novel coding mode selection algorithm estimates the encoding rate for the Intra based and WZ coding modes and determines the best coding mode while maintaining a low encoder complexity. The proposed solution is evaluated in terms of rate-distortion performance with improvements up to 1.2 dB regarding a WZ coding mode only solution.

Formaldehyde in indoor air: a public health problem?

Formaldehyde was the first air pollutant, which already in the 1970s emerged as a specifically non-industrial indoor air quality problem. Yet formaldehyde remained an indoor air quality issue and the formaldehyde level in residential indoor air is among the highest of any indoor air contaminant. Formaldehyde concentrations in 4 different indoor settings (schools, office buildings, new dwellings and occupied dwellings) in Portugal were measured using Photo Ionization Detection (PID) equipment (11,7 eV lamps). All the settings presented results higher than the reference value proposed by Portuguese legislation. Furthermore, occupied dwellings showed 3 units with results above the reference. We could conclude that formaldehyde presence is a reality in monitored indoor settings. Concentration levels are higher than the Portuguese reference value for indoor settings and these can indicate health problems for occupants.

A practical approach for profit-based unit commitment with emission limitations

This paper proposes a practical approach for profit-based unit commitment (PBUC) with emission limitations. Under deregulation, unit commitment has evolved from a minimum-cost optimisation problem to a profit-based optimisation problem. However, as a consequence of growing environmental concern, the impact of fossil-fuelled power plants must be considered, giving rise to emission limitations. The simultaneous address of the profit with the emission is taken into account in our practical approach by a multiobjective optimisation (MO) problem. Hence, trade-off Curves between profit and emission are obtained for different energy price profiles, in a way to aid decision-makers concerning emission allowance trading. Moreover, a new parameter is presented, ratio of change, and the corresponding gradient angle, enabling the proper selection of a compromise commitment for the units. A case study based on the standard IEEE 30-bus system is presented to illustrate the proficiency Of Our practical approach for the new competitive and environmentally constrained electricity supply industry.

Application of GIS-based multi-criteria analysis for site selection of aquifer recharge with reclaimed water

Reclaimed water from small wastewater treatment facilities in the rural areas of the Beira Interior region (Portugal) may constitute an alternative water source for aquifer recharge. A 21-month monitoring period in a constructed wetland treatment system has shown that 21,500 m(3) year(-1) of treated wastewater (reclaimed water) could be used for aquifer recharge. A GIS-based multi-criteria analysis was performed, combining ten thematic maps and economic, environmental and technical criteria, in order to produce a suitability map for the location of sites for reclaimed water infiltration. The areas chosen for aquifer recharge with infiltration basins are mainly composed of anthrosol with more than 1 m deep and fine sand texture, which allows an average infiltration velocity of up to 1 m d(-1). These characteristics will provide a final polishing treatment of the reclaimed water after infiltration (soil aquifer treatment (SAT)), suitable for the removal of the residual load (trace organics, nutrients, heavy metals and pathogens). The risk of groundwater contamination is low since the water table in the anthrosol areas ranges from 10 m to 50 m. Oil the other hand, these depths allow a guaranteed unsaturated area suitable for SAT. An area of 13,944 ha was selected for study, but only 1607 ha are suitable for reclaimed water infiltration. Approximately 1280 m(2) were considered enough to set up 4 infiltration basins to work in flooding and drying cycles.

Fungal contamination of poultries litter: a public health problem

Exposure to certain fungi can cause human illness. Fungi cause adverse human health effects through three specific mechanisms: generation of a harmful immune response (e.g., allergy or hypersensitivity pneumonitis); direct infection by the fungal organism; by toxic-irritant effects from mold byproducts, such as mycotoxins. In Portugal there is an increasingly industry of large facilities that produce whole chickens for domestic consumption and only few investigations have reported on fungal contamination of the poultry litter. The material used for poultry litter is varied but normally can be constitute by: pine shavings; sawdust of eucalyptus; other types of wood; peanut; coffee; sugar cane; straw; hay; grass; paper processed. Litter is one of the most contributive factors to fungal contamination in poultries. Spreading litter is one of the tasks that normally involve higher exposure of the poultry workers to dust, fungi and their metabolites, such as VOC’s and mycotoxins. After being used and removed from poultries, litter is ploughed into agricultural soils, being this practice potentially dangerous for the soil environment, as well for both humans and animals. The goal of this study was to characterize litter’s fungal contamination and also to report the incidence of keratinophilic and toxigenic fungi.

Positive Solutions of the Dirichlet Problem for the One-dimensional Minkowski-Curvature Equation

We discuss existence and multiplicity of positive solutions of the Dirichlet problem for the quasilinear ordinary differential equation-(u' / root 1 - u'(2))' = f(t, u). Depending on the behaviour of f = f(t, s) near s = 0, we prove the existence of either one, or two, or three, or infinitely many positive solutions. In general, the positivity of f is not required. All results are obtained by reduction to an equivalent non-singular problem to which variational or topological methods apply in a classical fashion.

Fungal contamination of poultry litter: a public health problem

Although numerous studies have been conducted on microbial contaminants associated with various stages related to poultry and meat products processing, only a few reported on fungal contamination of poultry litter. The goals of this study were to (1) characterize litter fungal contamination and (2) report the incidence of keratinophilic and toxigenic fungi presence. Seven fresh and 14 aged litter samples were collected from 7 poultry farms. In addition, 27 air samples of 25 litters were also collected through impaction method, and after laboratory processing and incubation of collected samples, quantitative colony-forming units (CFU/m3) and qualitative results were obtained. Twelve different fungal species were detected in fresh litter and Penicillium was the most frequent genus found (59.9%), followed by Alternaria (17.8%), Cladosporium (7.1%), and Aspergillus (5.7%). With respect to aged litter, 19 different fungal species were detected, with Penicillium sp. the most frequently isolated (42.3%), followed by Scopulariopsis sp. (38.3%), Trichosporon sp. (8.8%), and Aspergillus sp. (5.5%). A significant positive correlation was found between litter fungal contamination (CFU/g) and air fungal contamination (CFU/m3). Litter fungal quantification and species identification have important implications in the evaluation of potential adverse health risks to exposed workers and animals. Spreading of poultry litter in agricultural fields is a potential public health concern, since keratinophilic (Scopulariopsis and Fusarium genus) as well as toxigenic fungi (Aspergillus, Fusarium, and Penicillium genus) were isolated.

A influência da microgravidade na musculatura esquelética: alterações musculares e intervenção terapêutica

Introdução – O incremento do tempo de exposição à microgravidade origina um descondicionamento músculo-esquelético que precisa de ser prevenido através do treino. Objetivos – Identificar os padrões destas alterações e descrever os programas de treino em microgravidade e estratégias pós-exposição. Método – A pesquisa da revisão da literatura foi conduzida através da MEDLINE/PubMed e PEDro com as seguintes palavras--chave: “spaceflight rehabilitation”, “spaceflight muscle”, “microgravity muscle” e “bed rest muscle”, seguida de uma seleção dos artigos. Resultados – Os estudos encontrados apresentam uma resposta músculo-tendinosa diferencial sendo que o treino protege total ou parcialmente estas estruturas. Conclusão – O treino de resistance de intensidade elevada e baixas repetições associado a exercícios específicos é o mais adequado para responder ao descondicionamento. - ABSTRACT - Introduction – The increased microgravity exposition time raised the need for training programs to avoid muscle and tendinous deconditioning. Objectives – To identify the deconditioning patterns and to identify and describe the training programs used for its prevention during and after microgravity exposure. Methods – This literature review is based on a search conducted via MEDLINE/PubMed and PEDro using the following search words: “spaceflight rehabilitation”, “spaceflight muscle”, “microgravity muscle” and “bed rest muscle”. The search was followed by an article selection. Results – The studies reveal a differential exposure phenomenon for which the training programs reviewed are partly effective. Conclusion – According to the literature the high intensity low volume resistance programs with specific exercises are more appropriate to address the deconditioning problem.