Stochastic effects in a seasonally forced epidemic model

The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity, is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that corresponds to childhood infectious diseases such as measles. The power spectrum of the stochastic fluctuations around the attractors of the deterministic system that describes the model in the thermodynamic limit is computed analytically and validated by stochastic simulations for large system sizes. Size effects are studied through additional simulations. Other effects such as switching between coexisting attractors induced by stochasticity often mentioned in the literature as playing an important role in the dynamics of childhood infectious diseases are also investigated. The main conclusion is that stochastic amplification, rather than these effects, is the key ingredient to understand the observed incidence patterns.

Comparison of different breast planning techniques and algorithms for radiation therapy treatment

This work aims at investigating the impact of treating breast cancer using different radiation therapy (RT) techniques – forwardly-planned intensity-modulated, f-IMRT, inversely-planned IMRT and dynamic conformal arc (DCART) RT – and their effects on the whole-breast irradiation and in the undesirable irradiation of the surrounding healthy tissues. Two algorithms of iPlan BrainLAB treatment planning system were compared: Pencil Beam Convolution (PBC) and commercial Monte Carlo (iMC). Seven left-sided breast patients submitted to breast-conserving surgery were enrolled in the study. For each patient, four RT techniques – f-IMRT, IMRT using 2-fields and 5-fields (IMRT2 and IMRT5, respectively) and DCART – were applied. The dose distributions in the planned target volume (PTV) and the dose to the organs at risk (OAR) were compared analyzing dose–volume histograms; further statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS v20 software. For PBC, all techniques provided adequate coverage of the PTV. However, statistically significant dose differences were observed between the techniques, in the PTV, OAR and also in the pattern of dose distribution spreading into normal tissues. IMRT5 and DCART spread low doses into greater volumes of normal tissue, right breast, right lung and heart than tangential techniques. However, IMRT5 plans improved distributions for the PTV, exhibiting better conformity and homogeneity in target and reduced high dose percentages in ipsilateral OAR. DCART did not present advantages over any of the techniques investigated. Differences were also found comparing the calculation algorithms: PBC estimated higher doses for the PTV, ipsilateral lung and heart than the iMC algorithm predicted.

Microscopic Theory of Anchoring Transitions at the Surfaces of Pure Liquid-Crystals and their Mixtures .1. The Fowler Approximation

We have generalized earlier work on anchoring of nematic liquid crystals by Sullivan, and Sluckin and Poniewierski, in order to study transitions which may occur in binary mixtures of nematic liquid crystals as a function of composition. Microscopic expressions have been obtained for the anchoring energy of (i) a liquid crystal in contact with a solid aligning surface; (ii) a liquid crystal in contact with an immiscible isotropic medium; (iii) a liquid crystal mixture in contact with a solid aligning surface. For (iii), possible phase diagrams of anchoring angle versus dopant concentration have been calculated using a simple liquid crystal model. These exhibit some interesting features including re-entrant conical anchoring, for what are believed to be realistic values of the molecular parameters. A way of relaxing the most drastic approximation implicit in the above approach is also briefly discussed.

Radiatively induced Lorentz and CPT violation in Schwinger constant field approximation

The Schwinger proper-time method is an effective calculation method, explicitly gauge-invariant and nonperturbative. We make use of this method to investigate the radiatively induced Lorentz- and CPT-violating effects in quantum electrodynamics when an axial-vector interaction term is introduced in the fermionic sector. The induced Lorentz- and CPT-violating Chern-Simons term coincides with the one obtained using a covariant derivative expansion but differs from the result usually obtained in other regularization schemes. A possible ambiguity in the approach is also discussed. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Spinning reserve and emission unit commitment through stochastic optimization

This paper proposes a stochastic mixed-integer linear approach to deal with a short-term unit commitment problem with uncertainty on a deregulated electricity market that includes day-ahead bidding and bilateral contracts. The proposed approach considers the typically operation constraints on the thermal units and a spinning reserve. The uncertainty is due to the electricity prices, which are modeled by a scenario set, allowing an acceptable computation. Moreover, emission allowances are considered in a manner to allow for the consideration of environmental constraints. A case study to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach is presented and an assessment of the cost for the spinning reserve is obtained by a comparison between the situation with and without spinning reserve.

Spinning reserve and emission unit commitment through stochastic optimization

This paper proposes a stochastic mixed-integer linear approach to deal with a short-term unit commitment problem with uncertainty on a deregulated electricity market that includes day-ahead bidding and bilateral contracts. The proposed approach considers the typically operation constraints on the thermal units and a spinning reserve. The uncertainty is due to the electricity prices, which are modeled by a scenario set, allowing an acceptable computation. Moreover, emission allowances are considered in a manner to allow for the consideration of environmental constraints. A case study to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach is presented and an assessment of the cost for the spinning reserve is obtained by a comparison between the situation with and without spinning reserve.

Optimal location of supports in beam structures using genetic algorithms

Real structures can be thought as an assembly of components, as for instances plates, shells and beams. This later type of component is very commonly found in structures like frames which can involve a significant degree of complexity or as a reinforcement element of plates or shells. To obtain the desired mechanical behavior of these components or to improve their operating conditions when rehabilitating structures, one of the eventual parameters to consider for that purpose, when possible, is the location of the supports. In the present work, a beam-type structure is considered, and for a set of cases concerning different number and types of supports, as well as different load cases, the authors optimize the location of the supports in order to obtain minimum values of the maximum transverse deflection. The optimization processes are carried out using genetic algorithms. The results obtained, clearly show a good performance of the approach proposed. © 2014 IEEE.

A stochastic programming approach for the development of offering strategies for a wind power producer

A stochastic programming approach is proposed in this paper for the development of offering strategies for a wind power producer. The optimization model is characterized by making the analysis of several scenarios and treating simultaneously two kinds of uncertainty: wind power and electricity market prices. The approach developed allows evaluating alternative production and offers strategies to submit to the electricity market with the ultimate goal of maximizing profits. An innovative comparative study is provided, where the imbalances are treated differently. Also, an application to two new realistic case studies is presented. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Self-scheduling and bidding strategies of thermal units with stochastic emission constraints

This paper is on the self-scheduling problem for a thermal power producer taking part in a pool-based electricity market as a price-taker, having bilateral contracts and emission-constrained. An approach based on stochastic mixed-integer linear programming approach is proposed for solving the self-scheduling problem. Uncertainty regarding electricity price is considered through a set of scenarios computed by simulation and scenario-reduction. Thermal units are modelled by variable costs, start-up costs and technical operating constraints, such as: forbidden operating zones, ramp up/down limits and minimum up/down time limits. A requirement on emission allowances to mitigate carbon footprint is modelled by a stochastic constraint. Supply functions for different emission allowance levels are accessed in order to establish the optimal bidding strategy. A case study is presented to illustrate the usefulness and the proficiency of the proposed approach in supporting biding strategies. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Activation of effector immune cells promotes tumor stochastic extinction: A homotopy analysis approach

In this article we provide homotopy solutions of a cancer nonlinear model describing the dynamics of tumor cells in interaction with healthy and effector immune cells. We apply a semi-analytic technique for solving strongly nonlinear systems – the Step Homotopy Analysis Method (SHAM). This algorithm, based on a modification of the standard homotopy analysis method (HAM), allows to obtain a one-parameter family of explicit series solutions. By using the homotopy solutions, we first investigate the dynamical effect of the activation of the effector immune cells in the deterministic dynamics, showing that an increased activation makes the system to enter into chaotic dynamics via a period-doubling bifurcation scenario. Then, by adding demographic stochasticity into the homotopy solutions, we show, as a difference from the deterministic dynamics, that an increased activation of the immune cells facilitates cancer clearance involving tumor cells extinction and healthy cells persistence. Our results highlight the importance of therapies activating the effector immune cells at early stages of cancer progression.