Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources

In this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years.

Design of a sea-level tsunami detection network for the Gulf of Cadiz

The devastating impact of the Sumatra tsunami of 26 December 2004, raised the question for scientists of how to forecast a tsunami threat. In 2005, the IOC-UNESCO XXIII assembly decided to implement a global tsunami warning system to cover the regions that were not yet protected, namely the Indian Ocean, the Caribbean and the North East Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (the NEAM region). Within NEAM, the Gulf of Cadiz is the more sensitive area, with an important record of devastating historical events. The objective of this paper is to present a preliminary design for a reliable tsunami detection network for the Gulf of Cadiz, based on a network of sea-level observatories. The tsunamigenic potential of this region has been revised in order to define the active tectonic structures. Tsunami hydrodynamic modeling and GIS technology have been used to identify the appropriate locations for the minimum number of sea-level stations. Results show that 3 tsunameters are required as the minimum number of stations necessary to assure an acceptable protection to the large coastal population in the Gulf of Cadiz. In addition, 29 tide gauge stations could be necessary to fully assess the effects of a tsunami along the affected coasts of Portugal, Spain and Morocco.

Palaeomagnetism, rock magnetism and AMS of the Cabo Magmatic Province, NE Brazil, and the opening of South Atlantic

P>Reconstruction of the South Atlantic opening has long been a matter of debate and several models have been proposed. One problem in tracing properly the Atlantic history arises from the existence of a long interval without geomagnetic reversals, the Cretaceous Normal Superchron, for which ages are difficult to assign. Palaeomagnetism may help in addressing this issue if high-quality palaeomagnetic poles are available for the two drifting continental blocks, and if precise absolute ages are available. In this work we have investigated the Cabo Magmatic Province, northeastern Brazil, recently dated at 102 +/- 1 Ma (zircon fission tracks, Ar39/Ar40). All volcanic and plutonic rocks showed stable thermal and AF demagnetization patterns, and exhibit primary magnetic signatures. AMS data also support a primary origin for the magnetic fabric and is interpreted to be contemporaneous of the rock formation. The obtained pole is located at 335.9 degrees E/87.9 degrees S (N = 24; A(95) = 2.5; K = 138) and satisfies modern quality criteria, resulting in a reference pole for South America at similar to 100 Ma. This new pole also gives an insight to test and discuss the kinematic models currently proposed for the South Atlantic opening during mid-Cretaceous.

Evaluating Tsunami Impact on the Gulf of Cadiz Coast (Northeast Atlantic).

The Gulf of Cadiz coasts are exposed to tsunamis. Emergency planning tools are now taking into account this fact, especially because a series of historical occurrences were strikingly significant, having left strong evidence behind, in the mareographic records, the geological evidence or simply the memory of the populations. The study area is a strip along the Algarve coast, south Portugal, an area known to have been heavily impacted by the 1 November 1755 event. In this study we use two different tsunami scenarios generated by the rupture of two thrust faults identified in the area, corresponding to 8.1-8.3 magnitude earthquakes. Tsunami propagation and inundation computation is performed using a non-linear shallow water code with bottom friction. Numerical modeling results are presented in terms of flow depth and current velocity with maximum values of 7 m and 8 m/s for inundation depth and flow speed, respectively. These results constitute a valuable tool for local authorities, emergency and decision planners to define the priority zones where tsunami mitigation measures must be implemented and to develop tsunami-resilient communities.

Tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Gulf of Cadiz: fault model and recurrence

The Gulf of Cadiz, as part of the Azores-Gibraltar plate boundary, is recognized as a potential source of big earthquakes and tsunamis that may affect the bordering countries, as occurred on 1 November 1755. Preparing for the future, Portugal is establishing a national tsunami warning system in which the threat caused by any large-magnitude earthquake in the area is estimated from a comprehensive database of scenarios. In this paper we summarize the knowledge about the active tectonics in the Gulf of Cadiz and integrate the available seismological information in order to propose the generation model of destructive tsunamis to be applied in tsunami warnings. The fault model derived is then used to estimate the recurrence of large earthquakes using the fault slip rates obtained by Cunha et al. (2012) from thin-sheet neotectonic modelling. Finally we evaluate the consistency of seismicity rates derived from historical and instrumental catalogues with the convergence rates between Eurasia and Nubia given by plate kinematic models.

Performance of coastal sea-defense infrastructure at El Jadida (Morocco) against tsunami threat: lessons learned from the Japanese 11 March 2011 tsunami

This paper seeks to investigate the effectiveness of sea-defense structures in preventing/reducing the tsunami overtopping as well as evaluating the resulting tsunami impact at El Jadida, Morocco. Different tsunami wave conditions are generated by considering various earthquake scenarios of magnitudes ranging from M-w = 8.0 to M-w = 8.6. These scenarios represent the main active earthquake faults in the SW Iberia margin and are consistent with two past events that generated tsunamis along the Atlantic coast of Morocco. The behavior of incident tsunami waves when interacting with coastal infrastructures is analyzed on the basis of numerical simulations of near-shore tsunami waves' propagation. Tsunami impact at the affected site is assessed through computing inundation and current velocity using a high-resolution digital terrain model that incorporates bathymetric, topographic and coastal structures data. Results, in terms of near-shore tsunami propagation snapshots, waves' interaction with coastal barriers, and spatial distributions of flow depths and speeds, are presented and discussed in light of what was observed during the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. Predicted results show different levels of impact that different tsunami wave conditions could generate in the region. Existing coastal barriers around the El Jadida harbour succeeded in reflecting relatively small waves generated by some scenarios, but failed in preventing the overtopping caused by waves from others. Considering the scenario highly impacting the El Jadida coast, significant inundations are computed at the sandy beach and unprotected areas. The modeled dramatic tsunami impact in the region shows the need for additional tsunami standards not only for sea-defense structures but also for the coastal dwellings and houses to provide potential in-place evacuation.

Convective patterns under the Indo-Atlantic << box >>

Using fluid mechanics, we reinterpret the mantle images obtained from global and regional tomography together with geochemical, geological and paleomagnetic observations, and attempt to unravel the pattern of convection in the Indo-Atlantic "box" and its temporal evolution over the last 260 Myr. The << box >> presently contains a) a broad slow seismic anomaly at the CMB which has a shape similar to Pangea 250 Myr ago, and which divides into several branches higher in the lower mantle, b) a "superswell, centered on the western edge of South Africa, c) at least 6 "primary hotspots" with long tracks related to traps, and d) numerous smaller hotspots. In the last 260 Myr, this mantle box has undergone 10 trap events, 7 of them related to continental breakup. Several of these past events are spatially correlated with present-day seismic anomalies and/or upwellings. Laboratory experiments show that superswells, long-lived hotspot tracks and traps may represent three evolutionary stages of the same phenomenon, i.e. episodic destabilization of a hot, chemically heterogeneous thermal boundary layer, close to the bottom of the mantle. When scaled to the Earth's mantle, its recurrence time is on the order of 100-200 Myr. At any given time, the Indo-Atlantic box should contain 3 to 9 of these instabilities at different stages of their development, in agreement with observations. The return flow of the downwelling slabs, although confined to two main << boxes >> (Indo-Atlantic and Pacific) by subduction zone geometry, may therefore not be passive, but rather take the form of active thermochemical instabilities. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

From seashore to seashore: the cross-Atlantic agenda of the publisher António de Sousa Pinto

During the whole of the nineteenth century and the first decades of the twentieth century the transatlantic book trade was plainly asymmetrical, with Brazil seen by book vendors in Portugal as a natural extension of their market, destined to import books — a situation due largely to the incipient nature of Brazilian book production. However, the rapid development of the Brazilian printing and publishing industry in the first half of the twentieth century brought profound changes in the circulation of print material and in the traditional movements in the transatlantic book trade. Aware of those changes, some publishers and booksellers sought ways of expanding their businesses, by creating new openings for the circulation of books between the two countries. Taking the particular case of António de Sousa Pinto and his three Luso-Brazilian publishing ventures of the 1940s (Livros de Portugal, Edições Dois Mundos and Livros do Brasil), this article tries to understand the way publishers behaved in bringing together the two sides of the Atlantic closer together for the Lusophone book.

Deterministic approach for multiple-source tsunami hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

In this paper, we present a deterministic approach to tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal, one of the test sites of project ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe). Sines has one of the most important deep-water ports, which has oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid-bulk, coal, and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures face the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING, a Non-linear Shallow Water model wIth Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages: MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level), and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, the tsunami hazard is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, maximum inundation area and run-up. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at the Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario, and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite source of Horseshoe and Marques de Pombal faults as the worst-case scenario, with wave heights of over 10 m, which reach the coast approximately 22 min after the rupture. It dominates the aggregate scenario by about 60 % of the impact area at the test site, considering maximum wave height and maximum flow depth. The HSMPF scenario inundates a total area of 3.5 km2. © Author(s) 2015.