Model risk in the pricing of exotic options

The growth experimented in recent years in both the variety and volume of structured products implies that banks and other financial institutions have become increasingly exposed to model risk. In this article we focus on the model risk associated with the local volatility (LV) model and with the Variance Gamma (VG) model. The results show that the LV model performs better than the VG model in terms of its ability to match the market prices of European options. Nevertheless, both models are subject to significant pricing errors when compared with the stochastic volatility framework.

Proof in classroom social practice

How does the construction of proof relate to the social practice developed in the mathematics classroom? This report addresses the role of diagrams in order to focus the complementarity of participation and reification in the process of constructing a proof and negotiating its meaning. The discussion is based on the analysis of the mathematical practice developed by a group of four 9th grade students and is inspired by the social theory of learning

Role of malnutrition and parasite infections in the spatial variation in children’s anaemia risk in Northern Angola

Anaemia has a significant impact on child development and mortality and is a severe public health problem in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Nutritional and infectious causes of anaemia are geographically variable and anaemia maps based on information on the major aetiologies of anaemia are important for identifying communities most in need and the relative contribution of major causes. We investigated the consistency between ecological and individual-level approaches to anaemia mapping, by building spatial anaemia models for children aged ≤15 years using different modeling approaches. We aimed to a) quantify the role of malnutrition, malaria, Schistosoma haematobium and soil-transmitted helminths (STH) for anaemia endemicity in children aged ≤15 years and b) develop a high resolution predictive risk map of anaemia for the municipality of Dande in Northern Angola. We used parasitological survey data on children aged ≤15 years to build Bayesian geostatistical models of malaria (PfPR≤15), S. haematobium, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura and predict small-scale spatial variation in these infections. The predictions and their associated uncertainty were used as inputs for a model of anemia prevalence to predict small-scale spatial variation of anaemia. Stunting, PfPR≤15, and S. haematobium infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk. An estimated 12.5%, 15.6%, and 9.8%, of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria, S. haematobium, respectively. Spatial clusters of high risk of anaemia (>86%) were identified. Using an individual-level approach to anaemia mapping at a small spatial scale, we found that anaemia in children aged ≤15 years is highly heterogeneous and that malnutrition and parasitic infections are important contributors to the spatial variation in anemia risk. The results presented in this study can help inform the integration of the current provincial malaria control program with ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of neglected tropical diseases, such as urogenital schistosomiasis and STH infection.

Role of malnutrition and parasite infections in the spatial variation in children’s anaemia risk in northern Angola

Anaemia is known to have an impact on child development and mortality and is a severe public health problem in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the consistency between ecological and individual-level approaches to anaemia mapping by building spatial anaemia models for children aged ≤15 years using different modelling approaches. We aimed to (i) quantify the role of malnutrition, malaria, Schistosoma haematobium and soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) in anaemia endemicity; and (ii) develop a high resolution predictive risk map of anaemia for the municipality of Dande in northern Angola. We used parasitological survey data for children aged ≤15 years to build Bayesian geostatistical models of malaria (PfPR≤15), S. haematobium, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura and predict small-scale spatial variations in these infections. Malnutrition, PfPR≤15, and S. haematobium infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk. An estimated 12.5%, 15.6% and 9.8% of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria and S. haematobium, respectively. Spatial clusters of high risk of anaemia (>86%) were identified. Using an individual-level approach to anaemia mapping at a small spatial scale, we found that anaemia in children aged ≤15 years is highly heterogeneous and that malnutrition and parasitic infections are important contributors to the spatial variation in anaemia risk. The results presented in this study can help inform the integration of the current provincial malaria control programme with ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of neglected tropical diseases such as urogenital schistosomiasis and STH infections.

The effects of clinical support surfaces on pressure as a risk factor in the development of pressure ulcers, from a radiographical perspective: a narrative literature review

Purpose: Pressure ulcers are a high cost, high volume issue for health and medical care providers, having a detrimental effect on patients and relatives. Pressure ulcer prevention is widely covered in the literature, but little has been published regarding the risk to patients in the radiographical setting. This review of the current literature is to identify findings relevant to radiographical context. Methods: Literature searching was performed using Science Direct and Medline databases. The search was limited to articles published in the last ten years to remain current and excluded studies containing participants less than 17 years of age. In total 14 studies were acquired; three were excluded as they were not relevant. The remaining 11 studies were compared and reviewed. Discussion: Eight of the studies used ‘healthy’ participants and three used symptomatic participants. Nine studies explored interface pressure with a range of pressure mat technologies, two studies measured shear (MRI finite element modelling, and a non-invasive instrument), and one looked at blood flow and haemoglobin oxygenation. A range of surfaces were considered from trauma, nursing and surgical backgrounds for their ability to reduce pressure including standard mattresses, high specification mattresses, rigid and soft layer spine boards, various overlays (gel, air filled, foam). Conclusion: The current literature is not appropriate for the radiographic patient and cannot be extrapolated to a radiologic context. Sufficient evidence is presented in this review to support the need for further work specific to radiography in order to minimise the development of PU in at risk patients.