A gestão do risco associado à negociação de energia eléctrica através de contratos bilaterais e mercado spot

Num mercado de electricidade competitivo onde existe um ambiente de incerteza, as empresas de geração adoptam estratégias que visam a maximização do lucro, e a minimização do risco. Neste contexto, é de extrema importância para desenvolver uma estratégia adequada de gestão de risco ter em conta as diferentes opções de negociação de energia num mercado liberalizado, de forma a suportar a tomada de decisões na gestão de risco. O presente trabalho apresenta um modelo que avalia a melhor estratégia de um produtor de energia eléctrica que comercializa num mercado competitivo, onde existem dois mercados possíveis para a transacção de energia: o mercado organizado (bolsa) e o mercado de contratos bilaterais. O produtor tenta maximizar seus lucros e minimizar os riscos correspondentes, seleccionando o melhor equilíbrio entre os dois mercados possíveis (bolsa e bilateral). O mercado de contratos bilaterais visa gerir adequadamente os riscos inerentes à operação de mercados no curto prazo (mercado organizado) e dar o vendedor / comprador uma capacidade real de escolher o fornecedor com que quer negociar. O modelo apresentado neste trabalho faz uma caracterização explícita do risco no que diz respeito ao agente de mercado na questão da sua atitude face ao risco, medido pelo Value at Risk (VaR), descrito neste trabalho por Lucro-em-Risco (PAR). O preço e os factores de risco de volume são caracterizados por um valor médio e um desvio padrão, e são modelizados por distribuições normais. Os resultados numéricos são obtidos utilizando a simulação de Monte Carlo implementado em Matlab, e que é aplicado a um produtor que mantém uma carteira diversificada de tecnologias de geração, para um horizonte temporal de um ano. Esta dissertação está organizada da seguinte forma: o capítulo 1, 2 e 3 descrevem o estado-da-arte relacionado com a gestão de risco na comercialização de energia eléctrica. O capítulo 4 descreve o modelo desenvolvido e implementado, onde é também apresentado um estudo de caso com uma aplicação do modelo para avaliar o risco de negociação de um produtor. No capítulo 5 são apresentadas as principais conclusões.

Air contaminants in animal production: the poultry case

A descriptive study was developed in order to assess air contamination caused by fungi and particles in seven poultry units. Twenty seven air samples of 25 litters were collected through impaction method. Air sampling and particle concentration measurement were performed in the pavilions’ interior and also outside premises, since this was the place regarded as reference. Simultaneously, temperature and relative humidity were also registered. Regarding fungal load in the air from the seven poultry farms, the highest value obtained was 24040 CFU/m3 and the lowest was 320 CFU/m3. Twenty eight species/genera of fungi were identified, being Scopulariopsis brevicaulis (39.0%) the most commonly isolated species and Rhizopus sp. (30.0%) the most commonly isolated genus. From the Aspergillus genus, Aspergillus flavus (74.5%) was the most frequently detected species. There was a significant correlation (r=0.487; p=0.014) between temperature and the level of fungal contamination (CFU/m3). Considering contamination caused by particles, in this study, particles with larger dimensions (PM5.0 and PM10) have higher concentrations. There was also a significant correlation between relative humidity and concentration of smaller particles namely, PM0.5 (r=0.438; p=0.025) and PM1.0 (r=0.537; p=0.005). Characterizing typical exposure levels to these contaminants in this specific occupational setting is required to allow a more detailed risk assessment analysis and to set exposure limits to protect workers’ health.

Comparison of indoor and outdoor fungi and particles in poultry units

A descriptive study was developed in order to compare indoor and outdoor air contamination caused by fungi and particles in seven poultry units. Twenty eight air samples of 25 litters were collected through the impaction method on malt extract agar. Air sampling and particles concentration measurement were done in the interior and also outside premises of the poultries’ pavilions. Regarding the fungal load in the air, indoor concentration of mold was higher than outside air in six poultry units. Twenty eight species / genera of fungi were identified indoor, being Scopulariopsis brevicaulis (40.5%) the most commonly isolated species and Rhizopus sp. (30.0%) the most commonly isolated genus. Concerning outdoor, eighteen species/genera of fungi were isolated, being Scopulariopsis brevicaulis (62.6%) also the most isolated. All the poultry farms analyzed presented indoor fungi different from the ones identified outdoors. Regarding particles’ contamination, PM2.5, PM5.0 and PM10 had a statistically significant difference (Mann-Whitney U test) between the inside and outside of the pavilions, with the inside more contaminated (p=.006; p=.005; p=.005, respectively). The analyzed poultry units are potential reservoirs of substantial amounts of fungi and particles and could therefore free them in the atmospheric air. The developed study showed that indoor air was more contaminated than outdoors, and this can result in emission of potentially pathogenic fungi and particles via aerosols from poultry units to the environment, which may post a considerable risk to public health and contribute to environmental pollution.

Exposure to microbial volatile organic compounds in a waste-handling unit

The production of MVOC by fungi has been taken into account especially from the viewpoint of indoor pollution with microorganisms but the relevance of fungal metabolites in working environments has not been sufficiently studied. The purpose of this study was to assess exposure to MVOCs in a waste-handling unit. It was used Multirae equipment (RAE Systems) to measured MVOCs concentration with a 10.6 eV lamps. The measurements were done near workers nose and during the normal activities. All measurements were done continuously and had the duration of 5 minutes at least. It was consider the higher value obtained in each measurement. In addition, for knowing fungi contamination, five air samples of 50 litres were collected through impaction method at 140 L/minute, at one meter tall, on to malt extract agar with the antibiotic chloramphenicol (MEA). MVOCs results range between 4.7 ppm and 8.9 ppm in the 6 locations consider. These results are eight times higher than normally obtained in indoor settings. Considering fungi results, two species were identified in air, being the genera Penicillium found in all the samples in uncountable colonies and Rhizopus only in one sample (40 UFC/m3). These fungi are known as MVOCs producers, namely terpenoids, ketones, alcohols and others. Until now, there has been no evidence that MVOCs are toxicologically relevant, but further epidemiological research is necessary to elucidate their role on human’s health, particularly in occupational settings where microbiological contamination is common. Additionally, further research should concentrate on quantitative analyses of specific MVOCs.

A new control strategy with saturation effect compensation for an autonomous induction generator drivenby wide speed range turbines

This paper presents a variable speed autonomous squirrel cage generator excited by a current-controlled voltage source inverter to be used in stand-alone micro-hydro power plants. The paper proposes a system control strategy aiming to properly excite the machine as well as to achieve the load voltage control. A feed-forward control sets the appropriate generator flux by taking into account the actual speed and the desired load voltage. A load voltage control loop is used to adjust the generated active power in order to sustain the load voltage at a reference value. The control system is based on a rotor flux oriented vector control technique which takes into account the machine saturation effect. The proposed control strategy and the adopted system models were validated both by numerical simulation and by experimental results obtained from a laboratory prototype. Results covering the prototype start-up, as well as its steady-state and dynamical behavior are presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estudo da divergência entre duas vias que curvam em sentidos contrários

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização de Vias de Comunicação e Transportes

Crianças com multideficiência sem linguagem oral expressiva: formas de comunicação mais utilizadas para formular pedidos

O estudo procurou saber quais as formas de comunicação usadas por cinco crianças com multideficiência, com idades compreendidas entre os três e os seis anos, na formulação de pedidos e se os adultos compreendiam essas formas de comunicação. Os dados foram recolhidos através da observação directa dos comportamentos das crianças e de entrevistas efectuadas aos educadores de infância. Os resultados revelaram que as crianças com multideficiência usavam, basicamente, formas de comunicação não simbólica para formular pedidos e raramente os faziam na ausência dos itens que desejavam. Os pedidos formulados relacionaram-se sobretudo com a regulação dos comportamentos e a interacção social. Os resultados indicaram ainda que os adultos tinham dificuldade em responder positivamente às formas de comunicação usadas pelas crianças, levando-as a ter relativamente poucas oportunidades comunicativas e, consequentemente, escassas oportunidades de aprendizagem.

Compensação da energia reactiva com minimização de perturbações sobre a rede eléctrica

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para a obtenção de grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Automação e Electrónica Industrial