What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market

This paper studies the evolution of the default risk premia for European firms during the years surrounding the recent credit crisis. We employ the information embedded in Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Moody’s KMV EDF default probabilities to analyze the common factors driving this risk premia. The risk premium is characterized in several directions: Firstly, we perform a panel data analysis to capture the relationship between CDS spreads and actual default probabilities. Secondly, we employ the intensity framework of Jarrow et al. (2005) in order to measure the theoretical effect of risk premium on expected bond returns. Thirdly, we carry out a dynamic panel data to identify the macroeconomic sources of risk premium. Finally, a vector autoregressive model analyzes which proportion of the co-movement is attributable to financial or macro variables. Our estimations report coefficients for risk premium substantially higher than previously referred for US firms and a time varying behavior. A dominant factor explains around 60% of the common movements in risk premia. Additionally, empirical evidence suggests a public-to-private risk transfer between the sovereign CDS spreads and corporate risk premia.

Temporal patterns of TV watching for Portuguese viewers

Audiometer systems provide enormous amounts of detailed TV watching data. Several relevant and interdependent factors may influence TV viewers' behavior. In this work we focus on the time factor and derive Temporal Patterns of TV watching, based on panel data. Clustering base attributes are originated from 1440 binary minute-related attributes, capturing the TV watching status (watch/not watch). Since there are around 2500 panel viewers a data reduction procedure is first performed. K-Means algorithm is used to obtain daily clusters of viewers. Weekly patterns are then derived which rely on daily patterns. The obtained solutions are tested for consistency and stability. Temporal TV watching patterns provide new insights concerning Portuguese TV viewers' behavior.

O impacte do endividamento nas empresas portuguesas

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira

Fatores determinantes da maturidade e composição da dívida das empresas portuguesas cotadas

Mestrado em Contabilidade e análise financeira